Cincinnati Bengals
Slow starts are familiar territory for Cincinnati. In six seasons under Zac Taylor, the Bengals have started 0-2 five times. But losing their first three games is new territory, and the odds are now stacked against them. Only four of the 162 teams that have started a season 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990. The expanded format helps tilt the odds in Cincy’s favor a little, but not by much.
On the positive side, the Bengals have looked flawed in all three games this season, yet they were only a handful of plays away from being 3-0. On the negative side, they have once again struggled to develop their offense, and for the first time since Joe Burrow came to town, the defense has taken a back seat.
Through three weeks, the Bengals have the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL in EPA per play, a measure of down-to-down effectiveness. And while that alone is enough to make a team nervous, the numbers under the hood are even more troubling. Cincy’s pass-rush win rate was just 9.8 percent against Washington on Monday night. That’s not how often pass rushers got close to Jayden Daniels, it’s how often defenders to beat individual blockers. In 10 years of recorded data, this is the worst pass-rush performance ever.
Burrow and the offense offer hope. After a failure against the Patriots in Week 1, the offense has been solid — Burrow has thrown five touchdowns and zero interceptions. If that continues, the Bengals should be able to sneak back into the wild-card race. They have a favorable schedule over the next four weeks with games against the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Ravens that could get them closer to .500. But if they can’t find some muscle along the defensive line, they’ll be out of the playoff picture by Thanksgiving.
Panic Level: 10/10
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce has had a slow start. And there are plenty of theories as to why. Is he too much podcasting? Is he worried about his movie career? Is he spending too much time with Tay? The most likely explanation is simple: He’s a 34-year-old tight end.
Playing tight end is brutal and painful. When the downfall comes, it comes fast. And last year, there were warning signs that the end was near. In 2023, he started slow, hit his stride midway through the calendar, then took a dip again toward the end of the regular season. Aside from a few big games against the Bills and Raiders, Kelce struggled in the Chiefs’ final nine regular-season games. But by the time the playoffs rolled around, he was back to his best.
This season could follow a similar trajectory. Even though he’s getting older, Kelce is still capable of being one of the most dynamic weapons in the league. He still has an indelible connection with Patrick Mahomes that can get KC’s offense out of tough situations. The days of him being a guaranteed first down may be over, but he’s still a big play waiting to happen.
As the Chiefs work on a new receiver group and look to younger tight end Noah Gray to help ease some of the load on Kelce, his numbers will take a hit — apologies to the fantasy crowd. But by the time the postseason rolls around, it will be Kelce who Mahomes still looks to on must-have-it downs, and he still has enough tread on his tires to be a difference-maker.
Panic Level: 3/10
Dallas Cowboys
You gotta hand it to Dallas, they find new, grotesque ways to entertain every season. As if the postseason meltdowns weren’t enough, this season’s twist is a doozy: they’re allergic to stopping the run.
There’s nothing more demoralizing to a team than having the ball go down its throat over and over again. Through three weeks, the Cowboys have fielded the worst run defense in the league—and it’s not by much. They rank 32nd in EPA per play; they’ve allowed more explosive runs than any other team in the league; they’ve missed more tackles than anyone else. And there may be no more damning mark to open the season than Dallas’ 6.18 passing grade. depth of tackle. That’s not a typo. The Cowboys admit six meters before a defender even says hello to a ball carrier.
A lot of goes into stopping the run. But it can be boiled down to three overarching principles: talent, technique and tenacity. The Cowboys are missing in all three – and at all three levels of defense. Rewatch their matchups against the Ravens or Saints and you’ll see defensive lines getting pushed back, linebackers flailing around and descending safeties getting lost in the carnage before them. It’s jarring, sometimes amateurish. So far, adjustments to scheme and personnel haven’t solved the problem.
“We’ve got to be detailed,” defensive back Jourdan Lewis said Monday. “I mean, at the end of the day, it’s all about us stopping people. That’s just what it is.” The details were lacking, but the Cowboys simply don’t have enough bodies up front. Former first-round pick Mazi Smith has struggled to keep up with NFL speed at defensive tackle, and they’ve had a rotation of seasoned veterans alongside him whose best days are long past.
Of all the problems that have undermined the Cowboys’ poor start to the season, none has been as destabilizing as their inability to stop the run. And finding a midseason solution will be a challenge.
Panic Level: 8/10
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Jacksonville Jaguars
You know things have reached five-alarm territory when a head coach is talking about overhauling his entire offense three weeks into the season. “There’s got to be changes, whether it’s playmaking, personnel, everything,” Doug Pederson said after Monday night’s 47-10 loss to the Bills.
In their last 10 quarters, Jacksonville has scored just 23 points and converted just 18 percent of their third downs. But beyond the results is the sense that Jacksonville’s offense has no identity — no organizing principle. They’re playing like a college student who studied for a test the night before. Everything looks sloppy. Nothing flows. It’s an offense without ideas, paired with a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who keeps missing easy opportunities when they come.
If we’re going to apportion blame, the Jaguars’ management should get the blame for an undersized roster and a coaching staff that leaves the offense looking unprepared. But Lawrence has his faults, too. For all his physical talent, he continues to make ugly, nearly inexplicable decisions. On any given week, he’s just as susceptible to a mind-numbing turnover as he is to the throw of the day. At some point, inconsistency isn’t an insane habit that keeps you from reaching your full potential. It’s who you are.
Given the current schedule, Pederson could be out of a job by the time the Jaguars return from London in October.
Panic Level: 9/10
Caleb Williams
After claiming the title of offseason champion, the Bears have had a disheartening start to the season. An offense that was expected to produce fireworks has stalled. Meanwhile, Chicago has had to watch Jayden Daniels ignite the secondaries and Justin Fields lead the Steelers to a 3-0 record.
But any sense of panic should be tempered. Caleb Williams may have arrived in Chicago with a lot of hype, landing himself in one of the best situations in a long time for a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback. The Bears surrounded their young QB with a glitzy receiving corps. They invested heavily in their offensive line. On the other side of the ball, they returned most of a defense that cracked the top five toward the end of last season. But growing pains were to be expected.
The early returns have been haphazard. Williams has made poor decisions. At times, the game has been too fast for him. His accuracy has been inconsistent, and he’s been eager to break away from the offense to try to create. But even amid the early hiccups, there are flashes of the player Williams will hopefully become. Up until now, his offensive line has been a sieve, forcing him to indulge his freelancing habit. If that tightens up even a little, Williams will be able to distribute the ball more effectively.
That optimism from early August may be gone, and the rest of the roster may be further away from the playoffs than expected. But as far as Williams is concerned, Chicago should take heed words of a former enemy.
Panic Level: 2/10