NFL offenses are struggling on two-point conversions. No one knows why
TThe Baltimore Ravens were hardly having the best of days, but they successfully pulled off a last-ditch trip against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, going 69 yards for a touchdown in nine plays. The Steelers suddenly led just 18-16 with 66 seconds left.
No doubt the Ravens would attempt a two-point conversion to tie the score and send the game to overtime. But the Steelers, expecting a Tim Tebow-like pop pass, called a timeout as quarterback Lamar Jackson prepared to take the shot. So the Ravens called another play.
The NFL would describe the play as a “pass failure,” but Jackson took the snap and rolled to his left, something we know he is good at. But Pittsburgh knew that too and quickly shut down Jackson’s paths – and his receivers. His desperate jump ball pass fell to the turf.
“It was a QB run,” Jackson said later. “They just stopped doing it. They did a good job.”
But it wasn’t unusual. The NFL defense is doing a stunning job at thwarting two-point conversions this season. Through eleven weeks, NFL offenses converted just 26 of 83 two-point attempts, or 31.3%, compared to 70 of 127, or 55.1%, all of last season.
Over the weekend, NFL teams made just two of nine two-point conversions: a pass by the Cleveland Browns in a 35-14 loss to New Orleans, and a pass by Washington in a 26-18 loss to Philadelphia that ended with a beautiful tip-toe catch by tight end Zach Ertz.
Other than the fact that defenses are better prepared than ever (although that can be said for offenses too), there are no real explanations for the sudden drop in two-point conversions. On Jackson’s attempt, Pittsburgh cornerback Joey Porter Jr. simply an excellent play in forcing Jackson to roll to the sideline, not giving him a chance to get onto the field.
When the NFL announced before the 2015 season that the line of scrimmage would be moved to the 15-yard line for extra points — kickers had missed only eight of 1,230 extra-point kicks a year earlier — it seemed as if the two-point kick conversion would become more widely used.
Two-point conversion attempts increased from 58 in 2014 to 94 in 2015. In 2021, NFL teams attempted 154 two-pointers, which amounts to 75, almost half. In 2022, NFL teams again made nearly half of their two-point attempts, 56 of 119, and then did even better in 2023.
This year is different: Sixteen teams, half of the competition, have not converted any two-pointers. The New York Giants are 0-for-6, and the Tennessee Titans haven’t even attempted one yet. Cleveland and Jacksonville, otherwise terrible, are the only teams with more than two successful attempts.
After a 27-22 loss to Washington on November 3, which included two missed two-pointers by his team, New York coach Brian Daboll said: “I felt good about what we had, and they did a good job of taking it “, which sounded like a lot. as Lamar Jackson would do two weeks later.
When it was introduced before the 1994 season, the two-point conversion seemed like a relatively easy task: line up at the two-yard line and use the “biggest guys on the field,” as John Madden called offensive linemen, to hit an opponent. hole big enough for a running back to slide through.
That first year went quite well: 59 of 113 attempts were converted, or 52.2%. There was still confusion about when to attempt a two-pointer instead of an extra point, infamously exemplified by a two-point conversion attempt by Philadelphia in the seventh week of the season.
The Eagles played the Dallas Cowboys in the old Texas Stadium, which had a hole in the roof “so God could see His favorite team play,” as Dallas linebacker DD Lewis said. It would have been a miserable sight that afternoon: it was raining heavily in Irving, Texas.
Unfortunately for Eagles coach Rich Kotite, the rain made it difficult to decide whether to go for two as Philadelphia cut the Dallas lead to 24-13 with less than six minutes remaining. He later explained it this way: “The rain made the ink run and the card became blurry, so I couldn’t see what was on it or know what to do.”
Kotite had quarterback Randall Cunningham running for two, but the Cowboys stopped him. According to a chart that Dick Vermeil made for the NFL at the time, a team should try for two if they are ahead by 1, 4, 5, 12, 15, or 19 points, or if they are 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, or 19 points behind. 16 points.
So Kotite made the right decision, but he looked like a rube to the ever-impatient Eagles fans. He was fired after the Eagles’ season ended with seven straight losses (which was probably a more important factor than that wet play-calling chart).
The benefits of the two-point conversion were probably never more consequential than in Super Bowl LI, when the New England Patriots overcame a 28-3 deficit to beat Atlanta in overtime with two late touchdowns in regulation, followed by two two-point conversions.
In addition to moving back the line of scrimmage for extra points in 2015, the NFL implemented “defensive two-point conversions,” in which the defense obtains the ball by blocking an extra-point kick or forcing a turnover on a two-pointer and running with it to the opposite end zone.
These have been rare, but interestingly, they are becoming even rarer. There were ten defensive two-point conversions between 2015 and 2019, including four in the 2016 season. However, there have only been three defensive two-point conversions in the last five seasons.
(The Eagles were the only NFL team this year with a defensive two-point conversion. Isaiah Rodgers blocked a Tampa Bay extra point attempt, and Kelee Ringo picked up the ball and returned it 60 yards for two points. The Eagles still lost , 33-16.)
As a result of all this, teams have become more timid in attempting two-point conversions this season: the number of attempts has dropped to 2.6 per team, compared to 4.0 last season and 4.8 in that two-point-crazy season of 2021. Maybe it will be less efficient if you do it less often.
In any case, don’t expect the NFL to dump it. The two-pointer keeps games competitive longer, like that Steelers-Ravens game. The defense has gotten the edge for now, but these things are always subject to change. That, or the NFL will just change the rules again.