LLet’s roll out the red carpet for the midseason-style awards. A quick note: these prices are based on what happened over eight weeks. These are not forecasts about how the awards ceremony will develop at the end of the year.
Offensive Player of the Year
Nominees: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles; Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings; Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals; Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens.
Did even the Ravens think adding Henry would go so smoothly? The ageless back is on his way to breaking 2,000 at the age of 30. After a shaky opening week against the Chiefs, Henry has evaded every defense he has faced. He leads the league in rushing yards, yards from scrimmage, touchdowns and has the longest streak of the season for good measure. The only player with more explosive rushes than Henry this season is… Lamar Jackson.
Normally, a team adding a veteran running back is the kind of move that pulls column inches in the offseason but fails to move the championship needle. But Henry has helped the Ravens reshape their Jackson offense, better positioning the team for a deep postseason run.
Jackson is still the main Jenga block. Without Henry, the Ravens could still field an excellent offense. Without Jackson they would be in trouble. But putting the two together has taken Baltimore’s offense to a new level. They have the most distinctive and effective running game in the league; teams accustomed to generic ground attacks seem shell-shocked when facing the Jackson-Henry tandem.
Somehow, pairing the best downhill runner in the NFL with the league’s MVP has been better in reality than in theory.
Winner: Henry
Defensive Player of the Year
Nominees: TJ Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers; Brian Branch, Detroit Lions; Will Anderson, Houston Texans; Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants; Chris Jones, Kansas City principals; Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions; Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers.
This season there are dizzying candidates. For his season-ending leg injuryHutchinson waltzed away with the award. With Hutchinson missing time, it’s tempting to hand the award to Brian Branch, Detroit’s do-it-all safety, slot corner and part-time linebacker. Branch is the secret sauce behind the Lions’ defensive success, a multi-positional star he plays with an unquenchable vision with two steps forward.
But Branch is the hipster choice. The logical choice is TJ Watt. The Steelers’ edge rusher continues to take over games on his own. He has already collected 6.5 sacks this season and has forced four fumbles, two of which he has recovered. Against the run, he was downright unblockable, scoring 14 run stops. No one’s sack total comes close to double digits.
What’s remarkable about Watt isn’t that he wins, but How. Anderson, Hutchinson and Myles Garrett have multiple ways to penetrate the backfield and rock quarterbacks. They stack a move on top of a move. Hutchinson aside, the big and good shuffle of the competition through the defensive formation. Not Watt. He doesn’t attack from strange angles. He has no deep tricks. He doesn’t get any schematic help. He lines up in one spot – as a defensive end on the left – and lets it rip.
That’s not an exaggeration. Watt has one move: a dip-and-rip, speed burst. He explodes off the line, arcs around the opposing right tackle and closes in on the quarterback. That’s it.
For most of his career, Watt tried stuff. But he has now traded unpredictability for efficiency. The idea is not to win every rep, but that when he wins, it is done quickly and cleanly, giving him the opportunity not only to pressure or drop a quarterback, but also to tackle the ball falling and forcing a fumble. Are historical forced clumsy figures are not an accident, they are by design. Watt has opted to pursue game-changing plays rather than ramp up his pressure numbers.
Watt’s numbers this season won’t surprise you. He has made 28 pressures in total, putting him 28th in the league – and second in his own team behind Cameron Heyward. In terms of pass-rush winning percentage (how often he beats his blocker), he ranks 37th in the league, behind two teammates – Heyward and rotation rusher Nick Herbig. But there is plenty of context. No pass rusher has drawn more double teams chipped so many times, or a game plan has been made against it as much as Watt.
He may not hit all the traditional benchmarks, but no defenseman has been as valuable to his unit as Watt.
Winner: Watt
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Nominees: Jayden Daniels, Washington commanders; Malik Nabers, New York Giants; Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders; Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars.
In a stacked class this is not particularly close. Jayden Daniels makes his way across the field. Daniels has proven to be as much of a dual threat as he was in college, as comfortable escaping for an explosive run as he is carving defenses out of the pocket. Eight weeks into his career, he navigates matches with the confidence of a five-year vet.
Daniels leads the league in the RBSDM Quarterback Compositewhich measures the value of a play and how much the quarterback can be considered responsible for that value. That data goes back to 2010. In that time, no rookie or first-year starter (including Patrick Mahomes!) has led the field through the first eight weeks of a season.
Does anyone deserve this more than Washington fans? Like Andy Dufresne, they escaped through a sewer pipe owned by Dan Snyder and have emerged with a starting quarterback playing at an MVP level. Next up is Zihuatanejo, or, you know, a playoff win.
Winner: Daniels
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Defensive Rookie of the Year
Nominees: Jared Verse, LA Rams; Evan Williams, Green Bay Packers; Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts; Quinyon Mitchell, Philadelphia Eagles; T’Vondre Sweat, Tennessee Titans.
The Rams were never going to replace Hall of Famer Aaron Donald influence. But they approached last offseason hoping to recreate Donald’s production in all, drafting a few rookies who they hoped could one day star in a group that would stop them pining for Donald.
Halfway through the season, they got more than they bargained for. Jared Verse, the 19th overall pick, is already a legitimate star. He has recorded just 2.5 sacks in seven games, but the majority of those games have been spent in opposing backfields. Verse had 32 total pressures this season, good for ninth in the league, and only Hutchinson has better pressures per second.
Once again: Verse is a rookie! Rookie edge rushers are assumed be flashy. Sometimes their bag production is inflated, but their under-the-hood numbers don’t stand up to scrutiny. Verse is the opposite. He’s a wrecking ball that hasn’t quite been able to close yet. Eventually the bag total will increase. But in the first eight weeks of his career, he played at a Pro Bowl level.
Winner: Fresh.
Coach of the year
Nominees: Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers; Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions; Dan Quinn, Washington commanders; Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers; Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs, Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings.
Choosing a coach of the year is difficult at the best of times. Good luck figuring it out this year. You can toss up the names of any of the three coaches at the top of the NFC North and go for the one that hits the ground first. Campbell has turned the Lions into a certified juggernaut. Then you have Tomlin, who has the Steelers first in the AFC North despite a quarterback change. And there’s Reid, who has given the two-time defending champions an unbeaten start, even if the atmosphere felt a little off at times.
In terms of pure coaching, LaFleur building a successful offense around Malik Willis in the absence of Jordan Love is as strong a case as any coach has ever done. It’s also hard to look past Quinn, who set up the ecosystem for Daniels to shine and have the Commanders competing for a division title in what was expected to be a rebuilding year.
But O’Connell connects both ideas. As the author of the Vikings’ offense, he has helped revive Sam Darnold’s career, building a top-10 unit in points per game around the journeyman quarterback. O’Connell also deserves kudos for Minnesota’s signing confusion and confusion defense. Brian Flores is the architect of the Vikings’ enigmatic, erratic and delightful unit, but O’Connell hired Flores and his approach – a style that would have made many other head coaches shudder.
Winner: O’Connell
Most Valuable Player
Nominees: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills; Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens; Jared Goff, Detroit Lions; Jayden Daniels, Washington commanders; CJ Stroud, Houston Texans.
This is tight. Goff is having the best part of his career, torching the preconceived notion that he is just a function of Detroit’s system. Stroud has kept the Texans offense afloat despite facing so much incoming fire like every quarterback in the league.
But there are two standout candidates: Allen and Jackson.
Jackson, the reigning MVP, remains the cornerstone of the Ravens offense. He runs a more productive offense than Allen. But the Bills quarterback is having the best season of his career with a slightly higher difficulty than Jackson.
In his seventh season, Allen has sanded away some of the rougher edges of his game. He has thrown just one interception against 14 touchdowns this season, reducing the mind-numbing turnovers that have dogged him in recent years. Part of that is due to clearing the ball faster than ever before in his career, which has turned him into the most efficient passer in the league. And all without curbing his trademark aggressiveness or playmaking instincts – Allen still leads the league in big throws, according to Pro football focus.
At this stage of his career, the Bills are going as Allen is going. And he will help the team win its fifth consecutive AFC East title. He outshines Jackson – just.
Winner: All