NFL divisional round predictions: Stroud and Texans to upset No 1 seed Ravens

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 4:30 PM ET/9:30 PM GMT)

What the Texans need to do to win: Head coach DeMeco Ryans needs to be aggressive on defense. The Ravens’ final loss, a 33-31 loss to Cleveland in November, provides the blueprint. Over time, Lamar Jackson will tear teams apart. But the Browns crushed him 33.3% of the time when they pushed him out of his comfort zone. Cleveland forced him into the only game this season in which he has thrown multiple interceptions, and he completed just 56.5% of his passes. Houston needs to increase its current blitz rate of 15.4% or Jackson will take whatever they give him.

What the Ravens need to do to win: Jackson and Baltimore were ranked No. 1 in the 2019 season … and promptly lost to the Tennessee Titans in their first game of the playoffs. They need to be as dominant on both sides of the ball here as they were during the regular season to avoid a similar mistake. The Ravens defense is coming off a week of rest and they generated a league-best 31 goals in the regular season. That, combined with the fact that Baltimore’s CJ Stroud will be in much colder conditions than he’s used to under Houston’s retractable roof, could help keep the demons at bay.

Main role: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, Texans. Houston gave up the fewest passing touchdowns in the regular season (17), thanks to the trust placed in Stingley to follow the opposition’s best receiver down the field. Stingley can box Zay Flowers out of the play, causing Jackson to keep the ball or find checkdowns, which in turn creates opportunities for sacks or tackles for a loss. Steven Nelson, who took an 82-yard pick-six that broke Cleveland’s back last week, is enjoying his best year yet at age 30 on the other end of the backfield. That shows how Ryans has inspired a selection that is much greater than the sum of its parts.

Prediction: Texans over Ravens. Momentum may be a myth, but Stroud and the Texans defense will test that theory. Ryans gets creative to catch the Ravens cold, leading Houston to their first AFC Championship Game.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday 8:15 PM ET/Sunday 1:15 AM GMT)

What the Packers need to do to win: Matt LaFleur shouldn’t be afraid to focus on San Francisco’s strengths. Packers running back Aaron Jones can be too much, even for top run-stoppers, and peaks at the right time, while the 49ers’ passing defense has grown stronger since Chase Young joined the team. By having to account for full strength, Jones opens up the possibility of play fakes, which Jordan Love has excelled at since Green Bay’s revival from Week 9.

What the 49ers need to do to win: Protect Brock Purdy. San Francisco will feel like they have what it takes to get past the Packers in an arguably easier game than last year’s NFC championship game, where Purdy’s early departure with an elbow injury cost the Niners dearly. The pressure is on left tackle Trent Williams to make sure Purdy stays healthy so he can put his ridiculously talented lineup of receivers to work. Kyle Shanahan rested Williams from practice to ensure he was 100% ready.

Key player: Christian McCaffery, RB, 49ers. Green Bay’s soft defense is up for grabs with McCaffrey in the mix. The prohibitive favorite for Offensive Player of the Year raced the 49ers to No. 1, splitting opponents into the receiving and running game. His elusive stop-and-go electricity accounted for 30% of San Francisco’s 6,773 offensive yards in the regular season. He will be at full strength on Saturday, after a rest since New Year’s Eve.

Prediction: 49ers over Packers. Shanahan’s veteran point machine has too much firepower for Love’s young pretenders. Green Bay will keep it close, but this is San Francisco’s year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (Sunday 3:00 PM ET/8:00 PM GMT)

What the Buccaneers need to do to win: Tampa needs to win on both sides of the ball again to match the Eagles’ destruction. Baker Mayfield lit up Philadelphia’s secondary, as expected, but crucially didn’t make any serious mistakes. The Bucs have won six of the past seven to get here, the lone loss coming when Mayfield helped lose the turnover battle 4-0 by throwing two interceptions. The defense should also stay red hot, as in those seven games they gave the offense the perfect platform by conceding just 15 points per game. Tampa also has the advantage of experience to stop Detroit: seven of their 11 defensive players won the Super Bowl with the Bucs in the 2020 season. They can use the know-how that stifled Patrick Mahomes in that Super Bowl to beat Jared Goff and Amon- Ra St Brown to keep an eye on.

What the Lions need to do to win: Don’t change anything. The Cowboys falling flat on their faces gave Detroit another home game for the Lions fans to devour while skipping a date with the 49ers. The noise was incredible against the Rams, as was coach Dan Campbell’s moxie as he called a pass play for St Brown to ice the game when running and kicking was the safer bet. If Green Bay upset San Francisco the night before, don’t let the outcome distract from getting the job done.

Main actors: David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs, RBs, Lions. The difference between the Rams and Lions in the wild-card round was the red zone efficiency created by running the ball. Detroit had three touchdowns from three trips, while LA found nothing from their three. The Bucs have a great run defense — the Eagles were the last to be stifled last week — but splashy long runs aren’t what Montgomery and Gibbs are working on. The pair’s pace and power, especially deadly in short-yardage situations, increases the Lions’ ruthless red zone efficiency (Detroit scores inside the 20-yard line 65.7% of the time, the second-best percentage in the league ).

Prediction: Lions over buccaneers. Campbell’s energy pumping up the Ford Field crowd, mixed with the team’s swagger on the field, overwhelms Tampa Bay. Mayfield’s comeback year ends here, deafened by the Lions’ roar.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6:30pm ET/11:30pm GMT)

What the Chiefs need to do to win: Look to Mahomes to lead the way. The quarterback has won 38 of 49 games away from home in the regular season, which is the best winning percentage in NFL history among QBs who have played at least 14 on the road. The Chiefs’ highly skilled defense must stay in control, knowing that if they can thwart Josh Allen, Mahomes has the quality and weight of continued success to back them up. Mahomes was a postseason underdog last February and that worked out well.

What the Bills need to do to win: Buffalo needs to stop Mahomes. They did that inside their 20-17 victory over Kansas City in December, which the Bills used as a springboard to earn four crucial wins from their last four games. The key in their late charge was leaving out the opposing quarterbacks. In that final quartet, only one opposition receiver found the end zone, while opposing QBs averaged just 183 yards against them. Two of those four passers were Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott, this season’s gold and bronze medalists in total distance. Including Monday’s easy loss to Pittsburgh, the Bills defense has produced nine results since beating the Chiefs. If they continue to play with such ferocity, Allen has an excellent chance to topple Kansas City for the first time in three postseason attempts.

Key player: Josh Allen, QB, Bills. Buffalo’s pivot dominated Pittsburgh. His 52-yard touchdown run at third showed how quickly he can take down an opposition when it matters. Allen’s struggles under pressure early in the season led to a high number of intercepted passes, but the quarterback threw 13 touchdowns and posted a 96.7 passer rating under pressure, the best marks in the NFL per PFF. He had an easy ride against the TJ Watt-less Steelers, so he’ll have to stay focused to handle whatever the Chiefs and edge rusher George Karlaftis throw at him.

Prediction: Bills above chefs. Buffalo is owed one by the Chiefs in the postseason. Are you really going to bet against this version of Allen?