New poll reveals shift in race between Trump and Kamala in two major states
The battle for the White House is heating up in two states previously considered solidly Republican.
The latest polls show that the southern states of Texas and Florida, which Trump won by 5 and 4 points respectively in 2020, are now much closer together than ever before in the race.
Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020, taking 30 electoral votes. Texas, which has remained solidly red since 1976, was also won by Trump in 2020, earning him 40 electoral votes.
But support for the former president has declined among most demographic groups since his Democratic rival in the Nov. 5 election, Vice President Kamala Harris, replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee last summer.
In two states that were never considered swing states or toss-ups, that may now change. The latest Emerson College polling shows Harris is now within the margin of error (about 3 points) in both states.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump spoke at a rally in Wisconsin on Saturday, a crucial state that could decide the election
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, right, is seen during a campaign rally at Penzeys Spices in Pittsburgh
The poll shows that in his home state of Florida, Trump has only a narrow lead at 50 percent, compared to Harris’s 45 percent.
In Texas it’s even tighter, with only The difference between the two is 50 percent, 4 percentage points, compared to Harris’s 46 percent. That’s well within the margin of error.
Texas has remained a predominantly red state since the late 1970s, despite efforts by Democrats to turn the state blue.
In Florida, the state has steadily become more Republican since Obama won the state in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
The steady shift toward the GOP is due in large part to the increase in the number of Republicans registered in the state. There are 1 million more GOP supporters registered to vote than Democrats.
The latest polls show that the southern states of Texas and Florida, which Trump won comfortably in 2020 by 5 and 4 points respectively, are now much closer together
Donald Trump gestures as he addresses the Fraternal Order of Police during their rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Friday
Kamala Harris was welcomed at Pittsburgh airport on Friday by Senator John Fetterman and his wife Gisele Barreto Fetterman
County elections officials said there are currently 5.3 million active Republican voters in Florida, compared to 4.3 million active Democratic voters.
But Florida could still go either way, with another 3.9 million voters who are not affiliated with a political party or who are affiliated with a minor party.
According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted in August, Harris has a 13 percentage point lead over Trump nationally among Hispanic voters. In May, Biden had a lead of just five percentage points among that demographic.
She has also gained more support among black Americans, outperforming Biden by seven points within that demographic group.
But she has had little impact on white voters, the same polls show.
Whites without college degrees, who have long been the linchpin of Trump’s coalition, still favor the former president by 25 percentage points, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.
Trump dances as he leaves a campaign event in Mosinee, Wisconsin
Kamala Harris waves to media as she arrives in Pittsburgh, days before the first presidential debate
They had a 29-point lead over Trump when he ran against Biden.
That relative resilience among white voters is a bright spot for Trump. Several Trump advisers and allies have said in recent weeks that it is critical that the former president maintain his margin among that demographic if he wants to defeat Harris.
This is especially true in the northern states of the Rust Belt, including Wisconsin, which are predominantly white and have large rural populations.
Trump relied heavily on these voters as he swept Rust Belt swing states en route to his 2016 victory over Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
Biden won the White House in 2020 in part by bringing some of these voters back to the Democratic Party.
While the Trump campaign has identified Latinos and black men as key growth areas for the Republican Party, Trump’s campaigning in recent weeks has largely taken place in small Rust Belt towns and cities that are not particularly diverse.
Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, is expected to hit the relatively rural areas of the Rust Belt particularly hard in the final weeks before the election.