New Orleans attack came as officials warned of an escalating threat of international terrorism

WASHINGTON — After Hamas launched the deadly attack on Israel that prompted retaliatory airstrikes on Gaza, according to FBI Director Christopher Wray said he was afraid of violence in the Middle East could incite individuals or groups to carry out attacks in the United States.

Months later, after extremists from the Islamic State group’s Afghanistan affiliate More than 140 people were killed in a Russian concert hallWray raised the alarm about the possibility of a similar coordinated attack closer to home.

After these months of warnings about a re-emerging terrorist threat, a Army veteran inspired by IS slammed a pickup truck truck in crowds celebrating New Year in New Orleans. But the perpetrator did not coordinate with international agents nor was he part of a broader plot. Instead, he embodied a long-standing concern that came into focus in the years after the September 11 attacks and never went away: the threat of homegrown extremists who become radicalized on their own before committing mass violence on behalf of foreign groups.

“I have never seen the threat landscape more troubling, not just from a counterterrorism perspective, but also from a state-sponsored threat perspective,” said Christopher Costa, a former intelligence officer and senior director of counterterrorism at the White House National Security Council. in the first Trump period. administration.

He said it was a ‘grab bag full of grievances’ may have prompted 42-year-old Shamsud-Din Jabbar to take action — he was going through multiple divorces and financial pressures and noted in a video posted before the disaster that he thought he was killing his family — matched the profile of other attackers. And it has coincided with a climate of global instability that has given added impetus to those in trouble who are vulnerable to violence, from the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks that launched the war in Gaza to the dramatic overthrow last month of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

“You choose the complaint, and then you find the ideology to act on it,” Costa said. “Now it includes October 7, it also includes IS – and why IS is so important right now is because it is resurgent as a result of what IS could see as a victory in Syria.”

The attack in New Orleans, which killed 14 people, is believed to be the deadliest IS-inspired attack on US soil since a year ago. 2016 massacre of 49 people at a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida, by a gunman who professed allegiance to the group’s then-leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. That shooting came at a time when the FBI was rushing to disrupt a wave of “lone wolf” plots driven to act by Islamic State propaganda or even to move to the Islamic State’s so-called caliphate group to travel in Syria and Iraq.

The threat has never diminished, as evidenced by the FBI arrest in October of an Afghan man in Oklahoma who authorities say was inspired by the Islamic State to plot an attack on Election Day.

But more bold and coordinated efforts coming from abroad have attracted more public attention recently, such as Iranian assassination plots targeting government officials, including newly elected President Donald Trump. Add to this the unrest in the Middle East, which has led to demonstrations in the US, the collapse of the Afghan government in 2021 That raised concerns about the Taliban’s leadership, and concerns about those who would Islamic State bands entering the US via the southern border.

The whirlwind of worry led Wray will tell The Associated Press in August that he “found it difficult to think of a time in my career when so many different types of threats were emerging all at once.”

That such a deadly attack in New Orleans was carried out by a lone actor, without any direction from overseas, underlines the volatile and unpredictable nature of the terrorist threat, as well as the challenges in stopping violence from such individuals.

“It’s a very, very difficult challenge for law enforcement, much more difficult than dealing with someone who, for example, has had active communications with foreign actors, or has a clear online profile of consuming and participating in extremist activity on the Internet. space,” said Nicholas Rasmussen, the Department of Homeland Security’s counterterrorism coordinator.

“If you don’t have that,” he added, “then you’re very dependent on that bystander phenomenon.”

There is no indication that Jabbar, who was fatally shot during a shootout with police, was ever on police radar before the attack. However, FBI investigators have found significant signs of planning, including: suspected bomb making materials at his short-term rental home in New Orleans and his home in Houston, the FBI said in a statement Friday.

Although officials say he was not aided by conspirators, Jabbar’s method – ramming a truck into bystanders – is a favored option for Islamic State supporters, and a pro-IS media unit encouraged attacks during New Year’s Eve celebrations in the USA and other countries, according to an FBI and DHS intelligence bulletin seen by The Associated Press.

The terrorist threat will be taken over in just over two weeks by Trump and an FBI bracing for a dramatic leadership change with the appointment of Kash Patel. Patel has long been skeptical of the FBI’s use of its national security powers and has talked about cutting off the bureau’s “intel shops” from the rest of its crime-fighting activities. It’s unclear how the attack in New Orleans could affect any plans he has if he is confirmed to the post.

There is no doubt that the unrest in Syria – and what it could mean for the Islamic State’s ability to reconstitute and inspire supporters in the West – is a major national security wildcard.

The ouster of Assad and the arrival of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Shamor HTS, as the main mediator of power in Syria, have been received with some relief but also with concern. Beyond HTS’s previous ties to al-Qaeda, the collapse of Assad’s military has increased fear of a power vacuum which many believe IS will try to exploit.

Assad’s departure has also opened up the possibility for Turkey to expand operations against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, whom the country believes are terrorists. The Syrian armed forces have been crucial American allies in the fight against ISIS and operating detention camps for thousands of captured foreign fighters.

US and European officials are concerned that intensified Turkish attacks on the SDF could contribute to a possible resurgence of IS.

None of that conflict made a New Year’s Eve attack on U.S. soil by someone claiming to be inspired by ISIS easily predictable, especially because such violence is far rarer than in the Middle East or Europe, said Natana DeLong-Bas, a professor of theology and Islamic studies. at Boston College.

Still, she noted that “any idiot” can rent a car.

“The tools he used were very simple and straightforward and accessible to everyone,” she said.

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Associated Press writers Rebecca Santana and Matthew Lee in Washington and Jim Mustian in Black Mountain, North Carolina, contributed to this report.