WASHINGTON — This time, New Hampshire did not surprise.
Instead, the famously fickle voters stuck to the script of a resounding ratification of the frontrunner, Donald Trump, the former president. His victory over Nikki Haley was so big that it solidified his hold on key Republican voters and significantly reduced the chances that a challenger would overtake him.
Never before has a presidential candidate won the first two contests on the primary nomination calendar – as Trump has now done – and failed to emerge as the party’s general election candidate, making the already quite likely prospect of a rematch between him and President Joe Biden was significantly increased. .
Still, there were signs of voter unrest for both men. Here are some key takeaways from Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.
New Hampshire seemed like a state Trump could lose.
The state’s moderate tradition, the participation of independents, a huge advertising gap and even a popular governor all worked against the former president.
He overcame all that with relative ease and put himself on a glide path to a third consecutive Republican presidential nomination, which at this point can likely only be stopped by an unprecedented collapse or unforeseen external circumstances.
His base, which has been immobile until now, has given him a structural advantage that few non-establishment players have ever had. He doesn’t need to convince new voters to win the nomination, he just needs to make sure his people turn out. According to AP VoteCast, only about half of Republican voters in New Hampshire identify with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. And almost half disagree with Trump’s big lie that the 2020 was stolen.
He won anyway.
Trump may be an unstoppable force in the primaries, but Tuesday’s vote provided evidence that he may have a tougher time in the general election this fall.
About half of New Hampshire’s Republican primary voters are very or somewhat concerned that Trump is too extreme to win the general election, according to AP VoteCast. Only about a third say the same about Haley.
A significant number of voters in the Republican primaries — about a third — also believe Trump broke the law, either through his alleged attempt to interfere with the vote counting in the 2020 presidential election or through his role in what happened happened at the Capitol on January 1. January 6, 2021, or the classified documents found in his Florida home after he left the White House.
Such legal challenges have helped rally core Republican voters behind his candidacy in recent months, but it’s hard to imagine these issues will be an asset to the much broader base of voters in the general election.
Trump faces 91 felonies in four criminal cases. And his trial schedule is designed to ensure voters can’t forget the legal drama, even if they want to. The federal trial over Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election is tentatively scheduled to begin on March 4, the day before Super Tuesday.
For months, Haley and former Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis offered only muted criticism of the former president, wary of his popularity with the Republican base.
They all attacked him more head-on as the vote got closer, especially Haley in the final days before New Hampshire. It was too late to help DeSantis, who suspended his campaign Sunday after finishing a distant second in Iowa. This weekend, Haley drew attention to the 77-year-old former president who appeared to confuse her and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, directly taking over his mental fitness in ways she had previously only vaguely hinted at.
The punches didn’t land. At the same time, Haley’s approach suggested there was another way to challenge Trump. But a path that is only taken at the last moment remains a path that is not taken.
Joe Biden has not put his name on the ballot for the New Hampshire Primary. The results are not binding on congressional delegates. He won anyway, thanks to an aggressive registration campaign. Biden has pushed the Democratic National Committee to make South Carolina the state that put him on the path to the White House with a 2020 victory. The party’s first official primaries are on February 3.
Like Trump, Biden could read good news in the results, with more than eight in 10 Democrats approving of his handling of the economy, along with a warning: Four in 10 say he is too old to run for office at 81 to set. According to AP VoteCast, he half disapproves of his approach to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.