New Hampshire Republicans want big changes, but some have concerns about Trump, AP VoteCast shows
WASHINGTON — WASHINGTON (AP) — New Hampshire Republicans voted Tuesday night with a desire to curb immigration and overhaul the federal government, but they still have some misgivings about former President Donald Trump and the criminal charges he faces.
There are signs that Democrats are rallying behind President Joe Biden on the economy, but many are concerned about his age — he is 81 — and his handling of the situation in the Middle East.
AP VoteCast’s findings highlight some of the dominant issues that could define November’s general election, with voters sharing which issues they care about most and how they perceive the top candidates. Even as the coronavirus pandemic has receded as an election-defining risk, the survey results show that the cultural and social forces of the 2020 election have held strong.
AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1,890 New Hampshire voters participating in the Republican primaries and 873 Democratic primaries. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
The New Hampshire primary is unique in that undeclared voters – those who are not affiliated with either party – can choose to vote for a particular party. This attracts voters who are not necessarily party loyalists. More than four in 10 Republican Party primaries are not affiliated with a party, compared to about two in 10 in Democratic primaries.
The New Hampshire vote follows last week’s caucuses in Iowa, but the participation of a substantial number of undeclared voters means the candidates will face a different electorate.
Republican voters in New Hampshire are more likely than those in Iowa to say they are political moderates. They are less likely to identify as born-again Christians. Republican voters in New Hampshire are less in favor of a six-week abortion ban or cutting aid to Ukraine than Republicans in Iowa. Only about half identify with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, and nearly half say Biden was legitimately elected four years ago.
As inflation has subsided and job growth has continued, concerns about the economy have become less urgent compared to the chaos along the U.S. border with Mexico.
In New Hampshire, about four in 10 Republican voters view immigration as the most critical issue facing the United States. About seven-in-ten say immigrants in the U.S. today do more to harm the country than help it. And 8 in 10 support building a wall along the southern border.
In contrast, three in 10 Republican voters say the economy is their priority. This mirrors the results of the Iowa caucuses and marks a change from the 2020 and 2022 general elections, when Republicans generally said the economy was their top concern.
About 8 in 10 Republican voters in the New Hampshire primary say they would like to see substantial changes or a complete and total upheaval in the way the country is governed, continuing a theme that emerged among Republicans in the caucuses in Iowa.
Abortion is not seen by many as a top issue, but it is still a divisive topic.
About half of Republican Party primary voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while about 4 in 10 say it should be illegal in most or all cases. Republican voters in New Hampshire are more divided on this issue than Iowans who voted last week. Nearly 6 in 10 GOP contest participants oppose banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, but about 6 in 10 favor a ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
About two-thirds favor continuing aid to Israel in the fight against Hamas, and about half favor continuing aid to Ukraine in the war against Russia.
Compared to caucusgoers in Iowa, Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are slightly more doubtful about Trump, who won the caucuses.
In New Hampshire, about half of Republican voters are very or somewhat concerned that Trump is too extreme to win the general election. Only about a third say the same about Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador.
As for Trump’s criminal charges, about a third of Republican participants in New Hampshire believe he did something illegal related to his alleged attempt to interfere with the vote counting in the 2020 presidential election, his role in what happened at the Capitol on January 1 January 6, 2021, or the classified documents found in his Florida home after he left the White House.
About a quarter say he has done nothing wrong on all these charges. Still, about two-thirds say the charges against Trump are political attempts to undermine him, rather than legitimate efforts to investigate alleged misconduct.
Biden received mixed reviews on some key issues from Democratic voters in New Hampshire. During his presidency, the Democratic Party opted to make South Carolina the first official presidential contest, a choice that relegated Biden to write-in status in New Hampshire.
More than eight-in-ten agree with his economic leadership, and about eight-in-ten agree with the way he has handled the student debt issue.
Yet Biden did not receive uniform support. About six in ten approve of his handling of immigration. There is more division among New Hampshire Democrats over his handling of the Israeli-Hamas conflict, with only about half agreeing.
About four in ten say Biden is too old for a second term as president.
About half say it is very or somewhat important to them that New Hampshire’s presidential primary is the first in the nation.
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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for AP and Fox News. The survey of 1,890 Republican primary voters and 873 Democratic primary voters was conducted over six days and ended when polls closed. The interviews took place in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters from state voter files and self-identified registered voters selected from online panels that are not likely to vote. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated at plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for Republican primaries and plus or minus 4.6 points for Democratic primaries.
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