Most people dream of a white Christmas, but the holiday forecast suggests that only Americans in 18 states have a high chance of waking up to snow.
AccuWeather meteorologists report that snow is “a guarantee” in the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains, which stretch across Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah and Colorado.
On the West Coast, large parts of California, Oregon and Washington are also likely to see snow on Christmas Day.
The odds also look good across much of the Northeast, especially parts of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York and Pennsylvania.
Northern parts of the Midwest, including areas in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and the northeastern corner of Ohio, also have a high chance of snow.
To qualify for a white Christmas, there must be at least an inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25.
However, Jared Rennie, a physical scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), told DailyMail.com that southern states like Florida, Alabama and Texas essentially have a “zero chance” of experiencing a white Christmas.
Although predictions are always subject to change, experts have been tracking White Christmas celebrations across the country since 1981. This historical data gives a good indication of which regions are more likely to experience snow during the holiday.
Most people dream of a white Christmas, but the holiday forecast suggests that only Americans in 18 states have a high chance of waking up to snow. AccuWeather meteorologists reported that snow is “a guarantee” in the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains
“In general, there is a north/south trend in the US,” says Rennie.
“Areas like northern New England and the Dakotas are almost always guaranteed a white Christmas, even now in a changing climate,” he said.
As global temperatures have risen, white Christmases are becoming an increasingly rare phenomenon.
“The number of white Christmases has certainly decreased over the past ten years,” says Rennie.
‘The main driver is simply the temperatures; temperatures are virtually rising across the US.”
Every 30 years, NOAA produces a map of the historical probability of having at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.
The most recent iteration is based on data from 1991 to 2020.
Gray areas have little or no chance of a white Christmas, states in blue have a moderate chance and light blue or white areas have a high chance.
Gray areas have little or no chance of a white Christmas, states in blue have a moderate chance and light blue or white areas have a high chance
The map shows that it is highly unlikely that snow fell in the southern states on December 25 of any given year.
From Malibu to Miami and as far north as Virginia, states have a near-zero chance.
It’s also unlikely that the coasts of California, Oregon and Washington will see snow on Christmas, even though they are northern states.
This is mainly due to their maritime climate, which is characterized by mild temperatures, even in winter.
But further inland, especially in and around the Rocky Mountains, the chance of a white Christmas increases dramatically, ranging from about 40 to 100 percent as the elevation skyrockets.
Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Colorado all have historically high chances of accumulated snow on December 25th.
Much of the Midwest shows similar opportunities, especially in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan.
As average temperatures have risen due to climate change, the number of white Christmases in the US has decreased, data shows
Northeastern states, such as Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York and northern Pennsylvania, are also very likely to have snow on Christmas Day.
This historical data gives a general idea of which parts of the US are more or less likely to have a white Christmas. But actual weather patterns can vary widely from year to year, and it is not unusual for states to defy historical expectations.
For example, 2023 was the greenest Christmas since 2003, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok told DailyMail.com.
Only 17.6 percent of the U.S. had snow on December 25 of that year. Even states with a high historical probability – such as Wisconsin, Maine, Massachusetts and Michigan – have had little snow on Christmas so far.
But the year before that was the whitest Christmas on record since 2003, with 53 percent of the U.S. covered in at least an inch of snow by December 25, 2022. Extensive cold temperatures and widespread snow extended into southern Tennessee that year.
This can make the chances of a white Christmas seem somewhat random. But looking at the long-term data, clear trends emerge, including an overall decrease in the land area covered in snow on Dec. 25, Rennie said.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, “total snowfall has declined in many parts of the country since widespread observations became available in 1930, with 57 percent of stations showing a decline.”
That’s largely because as temperatures rise, winter precipitation is less likely to fall in the form of snow and more likely to fall in the form of rain, sleet or freezing rain, he explains.
Moreover, climate change ensures that winter becomes shorter as the summer season lasts longer. Climate Central found that 98 percent (236) of 240 U.S. locations analyzed experienced declining winter cold snaps between 1970 and 2023.
This means that the first snowfall of the year is falling later and later.
For those who love snow and hope for a white Christmas every year, this data may sound discouraging. But even in a changing climate, there will still be years when a significant portion of the U.S. is dressed in white on Dec. 25, Rennie said.
“White Christmas, extreme snowfall, blizzards, lake effect snow – that’s still going to happen. They will never go away. It’s just that the frequency of it is decreasing,” he said.