New analysis suggests national debt could increase under Harris, but it would surge under Trump

WASHINGTON — No one is likely to be happy with the projected higher deficits outlined in a new analysis of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s economic plans.

The analysis released Monday by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget suggests that a Harris presidency could increase the national debt by $3.5 trillion over 10 years. That’s even as the vice president’s campaign insists that its proposed investments in the middle class and housing would be fully offset by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Her campaign policy guide says Harris is “committed to fiscal responsibility – making investments that will support our economy while paying for them and reducing the deficit at the same time.”

The same analysis shows that former President Trump’s ideas could add another $7.5 trillion to the debt, and possibly as much as $15.2 trillion. That’s even as he suggests growth under his watch would be strong enough that no one would have to worry about shortages.

The 34-page report, released by the budget watchdog group, puts the spotlight on the government borrowing issue that the winner of November’s election will face. The public’s total federal debt now stands at over $28 billion and is expected to continue rising as revenues cannot keep up with the growing costs of Social Security, Medicare and other programs. The analysis shows that the cost of servicing those debts in dollar terms has eclipsed “the costs of defending our nation or providing health care to older Americans.”

Based on the candidates’ speeches, campaign documents and social media posts, the analysis bluntly warns: “Debt would continue to grow faster than the economy under both candidates’ plans, and in most scenarios it would grow faster and higher than under current legislation.”

Neither candidate placed meaningful emphasis on reducing the budget deficit in their speech to voters. But several analyzes show a clear difference: Harris is more fiscally responsible than Trump.

Harvard University professor Jason Furman, the top economist in the Obama White House, estimated in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal that Harris’ plans could reduce deficits by $1.5 trillion or can increase. Meanwhile, his estimates show that Trump’s plans would increase deficits by $5 trillion, although that figure does not include his plans to not tax overtime and eliminate the cap on state and local tax deductions .

There are other estimates from The Budget Lab at Yale and the Penn Wharton Budget Model that also show Harris could better control the deficit.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis estimates that Harris’ policy ideas could add $3.5 trillion to the national debt through 2035. That conclusion depends on how the different programs deal with their costs.

It predicts Harris will pass $4.6 trillion in tax cuts, including extensions of some of the expiring 2017 tax cuts that Trump signed into law, and tax breaks for parents and no taxes on tip income for hospitality workers. Roughly $4 trillion in higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy would not be enough to cover the total cost of her agenda and the additional interest on the debt it could generate.

Still, the analysis notes that the numbers depend on different interpretations of what Harris said. It’s possible that Harris’ agenda would add nothing to base deficits, but the report also said it could plausibly create as much as $8.1 trillion in debt in what appears to be a worse scenario.

By contrast, Trump’s ideas would likely add another $7.5 trillion to the debt. His $2.7 trillion in tariff revenues would not be able to cover $9.2 trillion in tax cuts and additional spending, such as $350 billion to secure the border and deport unauthorized immigrants.

But the analysis also includes other possibilities that point to much higher deficits under Trump. If his tariffs raised less money and there were higher costs for his mass deportations and tax breaks, the national debt could increase by $15.2 trillion.

On the other hand, if the tariffs raised $4.3 trillion and there were no costs associated with deportations, Trump’s plans could only increase the debt by $1.5 trillion over ten years.