NBA finals predictions: Mavericks or Celtics? Our writers share their picks

The Mavs are here because…

Their trade deadline shifts. The Luke Dončić-Kyrie Irving axis gets the Mavs going. But the acquisition of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford transformed this team. The pair strengthened the team’s frontcourt and helped ramp up the defensive intensity, covering up any mistakes by Dončić and Irving. O.C

The Mavericks have made some very smart deadline moves, and Irving’s rebirth as a leader and reliable No. 2 option has been impressive. But this is the Luka Dončić show – he entered the postseason as the runner-up MVP to Nikola Jokić, who is considered by many to be the best player in the world. But it’s Dončić’s time and he’s coming for the throne. CDL

Was it only fourteen months ago that Dallas became a national punchline? on these pages after tanking to maintain a top-10 protected draft pick did they owe New York? That cheating earned the Mavericks a $750,000 fine and a public tut-tut from Adam Silver, but the pick changed to Dereck Lively II, the 7-foot-10 rookie center who has made an outsize impact during the Mavs’ Finals run. Who is laughing now? BAG

Donnie Nelson was in one of his last gasps as GM the A-Town profession has never been forgotten: Unsettled about the team finishing fifth in the 2018 draft, Nelson sent Dallas’ 2019 first-round selection to Atlanta to take Dončić third overall. The Hawks drafted Trae Young, a fine but streaky long-range shooter whose mediocre teams have managed just two playoff series wins since his arrival. In some corners of Atlanta, you’ll see a Dončić jersey No. 77 in red and white. ALREADY

The Celtics are here because…

They are the best team in the NBA. They have (statistically) the No. 1 offense in league history and a flexible elite defense. The Celtics destroyed the league in points per possession on offense and ranked second behind the T-Wolves defensively. They’re not as flashy as the premier Durant Warriors or as star-oriented as the LeBron-Kyrie Cavaliers, but they’ve been just as effective. O.C

The term “championship or bust” is an NBA cliché, but it also applies to Boston. They have appeared in the conference finals almost continuously since the inception of their core, lost as finals favorites in 2022 and were the best basketball team by a bullet all season this year. They are supposed to win. CDL

Even if the rest of the Eastern Conference hadn’t fallen apart (which certainly didn’t hurt), a historically efficient crime would almost certainly have gotten Boston that far. Their 122.2 points per 100 possessions during the regular season were the highest in NBA history, while the top six in their rotation have shown no exploitable weaknesses for opponents to capitalize on. BAG

They are perhaps the best run organization in sports. You could say they had a better team six years ago Irving, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Brad Stevens on the sidelines. The fact that they have only gone from strength to strength and are back in the finals after surviving the PR nightmare of Ime Udoka (you know, Joe Mazzulla’s old boss?) is a testament to their winning culture. ALREADY

Dončić and Irving are the best duo since…

Like LeBron, Dončić is a chess master on the court. And now that Irving has returned his energy to basketball full-time, he has turned back the clock and played his best all-around ball since Cleveland’s title run in 2016. They are two of the deadliest closers in the league. A hand in the face. A broken property. The shot clock is running out. It does not matter. O.C

I think there have been sensational duos pretty much every year in NBA history – Jokić and Jamal Murray and LeBron and AD come to mind as recent ones. But as far as defensive duos go, I’d say Irving and Dončić are by far the best since Steph Curry and Klay Thompson‘s heyday, easy. CDL

Besides Stewart and Bird? You should go back to Steph and Klay. Although by the end of this series I suspect we’ll say Tatum and Brown. BAG

Abbott and Costello – except with a much better sense of who’s going to be first. ALREADY

The coaching benefit goes to…

Joe Mazzulla. The Celtics coach has his shortcomings: irregular timeout use; shaky rotation choices late in games; watching idly, with a faraway look in his eyes, while things seem as if they are running away. But great coaching isn’t about the little moments that jump off the screen. It’s about strengthening habits during the season. Jason Kidd may be the smarter tactician in the game, but Mazulla can beat him thanks to the suffocating defense he has built over the past two years. O.C

While Mazzulla has had a great year in Boston, what Jason Kidd what he has done with the Mavericks this postseason has been nothing short of remarkable. Getting his guys to adopt a defensive identity is an achievement in itself, considering he’s managing a team backed by historically great attacking talent. CDL

Mazzulla has been a steady hand at the helm of Boston, which has been the NBA’s best team over the past eight months. But Kidd has overcome longstanding doubts about his coaching skills — most recently during a 1-6 skid just three months ago — by pivoting the Mavs toward a defense-first identity. The same Dallas fans who allegedly drove Kidd to the airport in March celebrated last month’s multi-year extension. BAG

It’s a drawing for me. Mazzulla has been in this round with this team before (although not as its first chairman) and appears to have overcome his early growing pains at work. Kidd, meanwhile, has plenty of experience in the spot as an All-Star player and has managed the Dončić-Irving balance with an agility he never showed during previous coaching stints in Brooklyn and Milwaukee. ALREADY

Unknown player to watch…

Derrick Jones Jr., Mavericks. Dallas’ defense was weak early in the season, but turned around once Jones was reintegrated into the starting lineup. Much of that rebuild came about thanks to a rotating cast of springy piglets protecting the paint, but it’s Jones who makes the difference at the rim. The Celtics lead the playoff field in three attempts and rank last in free throw percentage. If Dallas looks to slow Boston’s record-breaking offense, it will be thanks to Jones flying out to block outside shots. O.C

PJ Washington, Mavericks. While Dončić/Irving will rightfully garner most of the hype, Washington will be the X-factor for Dallas. His development from a likable player on a bottom-tier Charlotte Hornets team to a crucial part of a championship contender has been a marvel to watch, and his preternatural ability to make corner threes that crush the opponent’s momentum will be crucial . CDL

Sam Hauser, Celtics. After shooting 42% from three-point range during the regular season, the third-year backup wing has gone ice cold since the Miami series. Look for the riveting TD Garden crowd to get him going in the first two games in Boston. BAG

Maxi Kleber, Mavericks. Kleber is the Mavs’ secret sauce and makes him easy to spot. He is the one who throws the ball away and tells his teammates where the ball should go next. ALREADY

The finals MVP will be…

Jayson Tatum, Celtics. This is Tatum’s time. He’s evolved over the past two years from a Kobe-esque shooter to more of a Tim Duncan: all smart decisions, craftsmanship and efficiency. Brown has been Boston’s best player this season, but to beat the Mavericks they need Tatum to be at his top. O.C

Luka Doncic, Mavericks. While in recent years the Finals MVP has occasionally been awarded to a role player for plot reasons, this is not the time to get cute. The Mavericks wouldn’t be in the finals without Dončić, and everyone knows it. It’s his time to shine and his time to get some hardware. CDL

Jaylen Brown, Celtics. This trophy has a funny way of going to the likely face of the winning team regardless of the numbers, which explains why Tatum is the odds-on favorite. But Brown, who won this year (relatively new) Eastern Conference finals MVP trinket, has put up similar numbers to Tatum throughout the postseason with much better percentages – including 50% or better from the floor in 11 of 14 playoff games so far. BAG

Luka Doncic, Mavericks. He’s thirsty for that festive brew… ALREADY

Your winner will be…

Celtics in six. The Mavericks have the star power, but the Celtics are the better all-around team. Dallas’ defensive shift doesn’t match Boston’s offensive style as well as it does against the teams they’ve knocked off in the West. Dončić’s sprained right knee is also major. Give him long enough, and Dončić can solve any defense. But is there a solution for the most athletic, smartest, switchable group in the league? And if Dončić is delayed at all due to injury, the Celtics’ defense will close any possible openings. To get this to six or seven games, Dallas will have to make an unusual amount of contested shots. Irving and Dončić can make it happen, but they need at least two other shooters to step up. O.C

Mavericks in seven. Conventional wisdom says the Celtics, who have been the best team in basketball all year, should win the championship. But conventional wisdom has never come face to face with Dončić over time. The Mavericks are firing on all cylinders, their role players are up to the challenge, and dealing with Irving on top of Dončić is a handful to say the least. CDL

Celtics in four. Boston has been the best team in the league all season. And while the Mavericks’ defense has reinvented itself since the deadline, they have never faced an offensive monster like the Celtics. Tatum and Brown are there, with Dončić and Irving as the elite defensive tandem. But Boston’s superior, if not deeper, supporting cast, which has been together longer, can get it from anywhere and doesn’t have a weak link in the defense, will make the difference if Luka and co run out of pixie dust. BAG

Mavericks in seven. The Celtics are the better, more experienced team. But their nasty habit of playing with their food leaves the door open long enough for Dončić to dazzle and Irving to get sweet revenge. Their Mavericks supporting cast, also a few shades greener than the C’s, continues to emerge behind Washington and Gafford. It’s a fun series that ends in Boston tears, a few memes and, perhaps down the road, a roster reset surrounding Tatum. ALREADY