Damning new data shows there is a staggering 84 percent chance that Joe Biden will withdraw from the 2024 presidential election, as his key political allies continue to abandon him after his disastrous debate performance in June.
Biden, 81, was initially adamant that he would become the Democratic nominee for president and face Donald Trump in November, but he is reportedly not open to discussions about his political future.
The data from Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, was released Friday. The market allows users to buy stocks based on the probability that an event will happen.
Charts show that even immediately after the debate, which took place in Atlanta on June 17, barely 25 percent of users thought Biden would drop out of the race.
In fact, the number of people who thought he would withdraw in March 2024, after Biden’s well-received State of the Union address, increased.
President Joe Biden, 81, recovers at home from Covid-19 as he ponders his political future
There have been calls for Biden to drop from the Democratic ticket since his disastrous debate performance in June
Biden, 81, shuffles off the debate stage with First Lady Jill Biden
The numbers appeared to be rising in early July as leaders including Rep. Nancy Pelosi gave tepid support to Biden’s campaign.
“It’s up to the president to decide whether or not to run. We all encourage him to make that decision, because time is running out,” she said during an appearance on MSNBC.
Biden remains isolated as he battles Covid-19 at home in Delaware. The president is leaning on a few longtime advisers as he weighs whether to bow to mounting pressure to withdraw.
On Thursday night, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana became the second Democrat in the chamber — and now one of nearly two dozen in Congress — to call on him to resign, saying, “Biden should not run for re-election.”
The Biden For President campaign is calling for an all-staff meeting on Friday. It’s shaping up to be a pivotal weekend for the party, as Trump wrapped up a rousing Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Democrats will, during the race, consider the rare possibility that Biden will withdraw in favor of a new presidential candidate before their own party convention next month in Chicago.
As fear and information swirled, Biden’s best friend in Congress and campaign manager, Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, told The Associated Press
“President Biden deserves the respect to have important family conversations with members of the House and Senate and Democratic leaders, and not have to fight leaks and press reports,” he said.
The reporting in this story is based in part on information from nearly a dozen people who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive, private matters. The Washington Post first reported Obama’s involvement.
Campaign officials said Biden was even more determined to stay in the race, even as calls for him to leave grew. And senior West Wing aides have had no internal discussions or conversations with the president about Biden’s withdrawal.
The Democratic National Committee’s regulatory office is expected to meet on Friday to discuss plans for the virtual presidential nomination in early August, ahead of the party’s convention later that month.
But there is also time to rethink. Biden has been told the campaign is struggling to raise money, and key Democrats see an opportunity now that he’s been off the campaign trail for a few days to push for his departure.
Some in his cabinet are convinced he will lose in November.
Biden tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week during a trip to Las Vegas and is experiencing “mild symptoms” including “general malaise” as a result of the infection, the White House said.
The president himself, in a radio interview recorded shortly before he tested positive, dismissed the idea that it was too late for him to recover politically, telling Univision’s Luis Sandoval that many people aren’t focused on the November election until September.
“All the talk about who’s in charge, where and how, has actually, you know — so far, everything between Trump and I has been basically equal,” he said in a clip of the interview released Thursday.
Former President Donald Trump has gained enormous popularity after he was shot at at a rally in Pennsylvania
But in Congress, Democratic lawmakers have begun privately discussing supporting Vice President Kamala Harris as an alternative.
One lawmaker said Biden’s own advisers have been unable to reach a unanimous recommendation on what he should do. More in Congress are considering joining the others who have called for Biden to withdraw.
Obama has told his allies that Biden must consider the viability of his campaign, but he has also made clear that Biden must make his own decision.
The former president has fielded calls in recent days from members of Congress, Democratic governors and major donors to discuss their concerns about his former vice president.