More Republicans are voting early, helping break records. Over 17 million ballots cast so far

With former president Donald Trump’s Encouragement is that Republicans will return to early voting, flocking to the polls to vote in person ahead of Election Day and helping push the national tally above 17 million.

Early turnout is breaking records in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.

The Republican Party hopes this wave of early voting will solve a mechanical problem that some in the party blame for costing the 2020 presidential election and key 2022 races. Campaigns typically want their voters to cast ballots before Election Day so they can focus their resources there. to get more fringe supporters to the polls at the last minute.

Republicans excelled at this before Trump turned against early in-person voting and voting by mail in 2020. wild conspiracies about the process and convinced his supporters to wait until Election Day to cast their votes. But the party is once again urging voters to cast their votes early, and the former president is doing so largely encouraged the change.

“I tell everyone to vote early,” Trump said on a conservative podcast last week Then Bonginowho has widely spread false information about early voting and the 2020 elections.

Republicans appear to be responding. In North Carolina, where Democrats had a lead of more than 30 percentage points in this phase of early voting in 2022, they are only 2 percentage points ahead this year, according to Associated Press election research. In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on robust early voting to counter the Republican Party on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had voted early this year as of Tuesday.

However, it is unclear what this means for the elections. The early voting data only shows whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for, and the early electorate can change from day to day as more people vote early.

The wave of early elections for Democrats in 2020 was largely a response to a pandemic that no longer exists, distorting historical comparisons. And what appear to be demographic trends in early elections may suddenly disappear once Election Day votes are included.

It’s also still very early in the voting process. The last of the seven swing states, Wisconsinbegan voting early Tuesday morning, and the 17.4 million voters who have already cast ballots this year represent only about 11% of the total votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. Parties can build a lead in early voting and then use it disappear on election day because all their supporters have already cast their votes and the other party has not yet.

“As far as I know, Democrats are still trying to get more early votes. It’s just less of a disadvantage for Republicans,” said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who is closely watching early voting. But McDonald warned: “We don’t know if this is already a furniture shift or an additional strength for the Republicans.”

One thing is clear: the return to early voting between the two parties has helped break records. North Carolina And Georgia both reported record turnout on their first day of in-person early voting despite the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene, and this has spread to states that are not competitive at the presidential level, such as South Carolina, which reported its own record when Monday saw the early voting opened.

Republicans still seem to have an aversion to voting by mail. They have improved their share of mail-in votes in several states, but still lag behind Democrats. That’s especially true in Pennsylvania, the biggest electoral prize among the seven swing states and a country that doesn’t have a traditional early in-person voting option.

Democrats there have mailed out about 350,000 more ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday. But the Republican Party is making up ground with early in-person voting in most competitive states.

Nevertheless, years of sowing conspiracy theories over early voting and voting by mail have taken their toll on the conservative electorate. Bee Elon Musk’s first solo event In support of Trump last week, he encouraged the crowd to vote early, a plea to which some in the crowd responded by shouting back, “Why?”

Even with these reservations, some analysts said Republicans would rather have early voting parity than not.

John Couvillon, a Louisiana pollster who usually works for the Republican Party and carefully follows early voting, noted that Democrats have dominated early voting in recent election cycles. Their current position, Couvillon said, “is the equivalent of three touchdowns at halftime and thinking you can score four touchdowns in the second half.”

Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst, claimed that everyone expected Republicans to return to early elections and close the gaps inspired by the pandemic. He said he’s not worried.

“I’m impressed that the Democratic numbers are as strong as they are,” he said.

The main takeaway, Bonier said, is that the high voting numbers indicate an enthusiastic electorate on both sides.

“If either party thought the other party would stay home this election, that is clearly not the case,” he said.

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An earlier version of this story incorrectly attributed a quote to Trump that said, “I want you to vote and get to the polls before Election Day because on Election Day they’re going to try to keep you home.” The statement was made Monday at a Trump event in North Carolina by Trump adviser Peter Navarro, not Trump.