Welcome back to the Guardian’s MLS Power Rankings, where I argue with your specific team and your specific team alone. I’ve hired Drake Callender to save me from all the dangerous objects thrown my way by readers upset about these rankings. Hey, he’s good enough for Inter Miami, he’s good enough for me.
As a reminder, these are not your standard, run-of-the-mill wealth rankings. We still rank teams from worst to first. But along with the rankings, we’re taking a deep dive into a handful of teams from around the league that are doing particularly interesting things.
Austin, we have a problem
29) San Jose earthquakes
28) Chicago fire
27) Sporty Kansas City
26) New England Revolution
25)Nashville SC
24) Austin F.C
Want to know who has been the worst team in the Western Conference in 2024, according to FBref’s expected goal difference measure? Hint: It’s not the San Jose Earthquakes that completely wrapped up the Wooden Spoon. It’s not Sporting Kansas City either. It’s Austin FC. Look, I know you didn’t need the hints because this part is clearly about Austin, based on the bold “Austin FC” above, but just let me know, okay?
Austin scores -0.54 xGD per 90 minutes, meaning they allow more than half the expected goal than they create. Each. Single. Game.
One of the only reasons they still exist technical alive in the playoff race – and one of the only reasons they are in a better spot in these rankings than the Quakes and SKC is because of Brad Stuver’s shot stopping. Outside Stuver, who saves almost a quarter of a goal more than expected per 90 based on FBref data, has been brutal for Austin this year. Just ask star Sebastián Driussi.
With sporting director Rodolfo Borrell about to enter his second full offseason, there are no shortage of big decisions to be made. Austin FC needs a capable striker, a playmaker in midfield and their backbone is one of the weakest in MLS. Then there’s the matter of Josh Wolff’s job, which is a fan job continue call for. The to-do list is long. Time is short. Few front office members have as many high-profile calls to make this summer as Borrell.
Too little, too late
23) FCDallas
22) St. Louis City
21) Toronto FC
20) Atlanta United
19) DC United
18) CF Montreal
St. Louis City’s fall from grace was swift, if not actually very graceful. They went from the top team in the West last year to one of the first teams eliminated from postseason contention this year.
What caused the decline?
St. Louis has been on the receiving end of some very, very fortunate rebounds in their expansion season that have, unsurprisingly, not been repeated in 2024. Roman Bürki was elite in goal in 2023, while this year he has resigned himself to mere excellence. Their demanding style may have surprised some teams, but the book is now out.
But the simplest explanation for St. Louis City’s decline in the standings is this: They whiffed when it came time to rebound in the offseason. When Nicholas Gioacchini and Jared Stroud left the club, 21 goals remained. St Louis did not replace either player over the winter. It’s no wonder they’ve had a hard time.
The good news is that a simple explanation for their decline leads to an equally simple way to fuel a potential rise in 2025. Find more talent. Really, sporting director Lutz Pfannenstiel has already done that well. St. Louis City was one of the most active teams in MLS during the summer transfer window, with St. Pauli’s Marcel Hartel and Hannover’s Cedric Teuchert finally joining their attack. Teuchert in particular was excellent. According to FBref, he ranks in the 88th percentile among his positional peers in MLS in expected non-penalty goals plus expected assisted goals per 90 minutes.
With the long-awaited replacements having raised their level, St. Louis has recorded three wins, two draws and two defeats since the summer window closed in August. The lack of a true superstar limits their ceiling until 2025, but there are reasons to believe this team will be a tier or two higher by the time March rolls around.
Playing the blame game
17) Philadelphia Union
16) Portland wood
15) New York Red Bulls
14) Charlotte FC
13) Colorado Rapids
12) Minnesota United
New York Red Bulls fans have been getting hit after hit this past week. Sure, they dispatched a bad Toronto FC team on Wednesday night. But before that, they watched their team catastrophically lose the Hudson River Derby on Saturday. Then they had to sit back and watch the comments from Oliver Mintzlaff, a senior Red Bull manager, pour in from a interview with Kicker. As translated by renowned Bundesliga broadcaster Derek Rae, Mintzlaff had to say this on MLS (and by extension his own team): “MLS is developing, but it is developing far too slowly and is still far from the standard we could imagine for a country like the US.”
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Mintzlaff’s point that there is a lot of room for MLS to grow is entirely valid. The MLS needs more talent if it really wants to attract enough attention to become one of the better leagues in the world. But should this criticism come from Mintzlaff, who is a member of the extremely powerful MLS Sports and Competition Committee and is associated with a club that failed to fill all three Designated Player spots this year? The whole has a lot We’re all trying to find the man who did this energy.
New York is the largest media market in the United States. The New York Red Bulls are one of only three founding MLS teams to have never won an MLS Cup. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2018. Since that same year, they haven’t finished higher than fourth place in the East.
If Mintzlaff wants change, even simply to help Red Bull’s New York branch produce better players for the Leipzig branch, he might want to take a look inside first.
Should we believe in Orlando?
11) Vancouver Whitecaps
10) Houston dynamo
9) Orlando city
8) New York City FC
7) Real salt lake
6) Seattle sirens
I’d be lying if I said I was confident Orlando City would be this high in the rankings.
Sure, they’re fourth in the Eastern Conference. Sure, they’ve won 10 of their last 14 games. But you know what? They have only beaten two teams all season that are currently above the playoff line: Toronto FC, who are ninth in the East, and Charlotte FC, who are seventh in the East. Please forgive me for being a bit skeptical when it comes to Óscar Pareja’s team. There is a very real world in which Orlando faces a competent team in the first round of the playoffs and is sent packing after two quick defeats in a three-game series.
And yet the reason why they are in the top 10 of this ranking is because there is something inherently beautiful about Orlando City. It’s not that they play elaborate, aesthetic football – they don’t. It’s not that they create an overwhelming number of chances in the final third – they don’t. No, the great thing about this team is their flexibility.
Pareja wants this team to become something of a tactical chameleon, where they can use the ball and use their smooth attacking playmakers against weaker teams, and play against the ball and hit on the break against stronger teams. For example, Orlando had 53% possession against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Against Columbus last month? They only had 41% of the ball. Orlando City will shift and change depending on the situation, and it’s wonderful to see them move from one facet of their identity to another.
Will being average to good at two things, instead of good at one, be enough in the postseason? We’ll find out soon.
Winners of the Supporter Shield
5) FC Cincinnati
4) LAFC
3) LA system
2) Columbus crew
1)InterMiami
The opener came from Lionel Messi, who grabbed a brace before the half-time whistle blew. Luis Suárez then dealt the Columbus Crew the death blow just a few minutes after halftime.
On Wednesday night, Inter Miami completed their regular season match against Wilfried Nancy’s team, claiming first place in the Eastern Conference and clinching the Supporters’ Shield as this year’s top MLS regular-season team. If they win their final two games, the all-time MLS points record will also belong to Miami.
While Messi, Suárez and the other Barcelona boys highlighted Miami’s important victory (and highlighted this unique season for the pink team), Inter Miami’s success in the regular season would not have been possible without a whole host of key players. Against the Crew, it was goalkeeper Drake Callender who came up big, saving a potential Cucho Hernandez equalizer in the 84th minute.
Without Callender’s ability to save his defense-optional teammates, Inter Miami would not have the Shield in their hands. The same goes for Julian Gressel’s effortful play on the right. Or for the return of Ian Fray as a central defender. Or for the 1,300 productive minutes of rookie Yannick Bright at the base of midfield.
Inter Miami’s 2024 season will be remembered for its star power, as it should be. Never before have we seen an MLS team with so many big names. It is entirely possible, and perhaps even likely, that we will never see a player of Messi’s caliber in MLS again. They made history. But that history wouldn’t have been possible without players like Callender providing the platform for his great teammates to succeed.
Bring on the points record and bring on the playoffs.