MLS power rankings: Cincinnati on the slide as a new contender emerges
Welcome back to the Guardian’s MLS Power Rankings, where I argue with your specific team and your specific team alone. Unless you’re the last place San Jose Earthquakes, in which case you have enough to worry about without me hitting you right in the face.
As a reminder, these are not your standard, run-of-the-mill wealth rankings. We still rank teams from worst to first. But along with the rankings, we’ll take a deep dive into a handful of teams from around the league that are doing particularly interesting things.
“Complete reconstruction”
29. San Jose earthquakes
28. Chicago Fire
27. Sporty Kansas City
26. New England Revolution
25. Nashville SC
24. Toronto FC
“TFC is a complete rebuild… Everything is on the table,” Keith Pelley told the Canadian press.
Pelley is the president and CEO of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, the company that owns Toronto FC. Only employed since April, it didn’t take long for Pelley to recognize that a major rebuild was in store for Toronto. TFC missed the playoffs this year and also doesn’t have a game on Decision Day, so their year is over. That means they have the freedom to break things down.
Actually, that process has already started. Pelley and general manager Jason Hernandez have been working with Marco Neppe, a former Bayern Munich technical director, in recent months to put together a “full organizational assessment”.
It’s not hard to spot problems in Toronto. There’s the stalled academy pipeline that has prevented them from developing top Canadian talent despite operating in a densely populated, talent-rich area. Then there is the problem of overpaid, underperforming Italians. Federico Bernardeschi, who has the sixth highest salary in MLS, stated a fine season with eight goals and six assists, while Lorenzo Insigne, who scores more than anyone except Messi, contributed just nine goals and played just 1,352 minutes.
But actually the biggest problem is the one Pelley is trying to address: Toronto FC doesn’t know how to win football games. Is their course on the pitch entirely determined by manager John Herdman? Does his tactical approach provide insight into the type of players they want to attract in the transfer market? For Toronto, there is little continuity in their signings other than signing a lot of players to bad contracts.
In the wake of the late resignation of TFC president Bill Manning in July, Toronto’s internal assessment and rebuilding cannot proceed quickly enough.
Time for the star to perform
23.Austin F.C
22. FCDallas
21. St. Louis City
20. Atlanta United
19. CF Montreal
18. Philadelphia Union
For four teams in the Eastern Conference, this Saturday – the last day of the regular season – is all about one thing: reaching the play-offs.
DC United, CF Montreal, the Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United are all vying for the final two postseason spots in the East. All 16 other play-off places have been decided. East’s wildcard slots are the only two remaining. The different scenarios for the playoffs can get a little complicated, so I’ll send them to you here for full details. For Atlanta, however, the top requirements are clear: they need a win in Orlando City and for their fellow players to stumble in the playoffs.
To fulfill their end of the bargain against Orlando, the Five Stripes would really benefit from a standout performance from Designated Player Alexey Miranchuk. Miranchuk, a number 10 who joined from Serie A side Atalanta this summer, has been particularly cold since dropping one ‘a’ from his team name.
Signed as a replacement for Thiago Almada, Miranchuk has been an inconsistent playmaker at best in his eight appearances. According to FBref, he is only in the 30th percentile for expected non-penalty goals plus expected assist goals per 90 minutes among attacking midfielders and wingers in MLS. The 28-year-old’s skills are obvious: he finds space off the ball, has a nice first touch and a skilled left foot. However, there was far too much sloppiness in his last action in Atlanta.
It’s been a rough start to life in MLS for Alexey Miranchuk.
It’s easy to see the quality of the DP. But far too often he makes the wrong choice in the final third.
He will improve with time and gain more stability in Atlanta. Will we see that on Saturday?pic.twitter.com/OU9zvcDGkd
— Joseph Lowery (@joeclowery) October 15, 2024
Without a permanent manager and with his only support from a squad in transition, it is not a major shock what Miranchuk has had to deal with. But if there was ever a time to put things away, it’s Decision Day.
The rise of the inconspicuous striker
17. DC United
16. New York Red Bulls
15. Portland wood
14. Colorado Rapids
13. Charlotte FC
12. Houston Dynamo
2024 was the year that strikers played well above their wage level in the MLS.
New York City FC’s Alonso Martinez went from barely used winger to elite striker earlier this year – he is now First in goals without penalties per 90 minutes and fourth among forwards in goals without penalties, according to FBref. Brian White, who played college football and was acquired by the Vancouver Whitecaps for allocation money, has 15 non-penalty goals and remains one of the best non-DPs in the league. Duncan McGuire scored ten non-penalty goals in his second season at Creighton. Tani Oluwaseyi, who spent last year on loan at USL, now has eight non-penalty goals and a handful of Canadian caps to his name.
And then there’s Charlotte FC’s Patrick Agyemang, who is having a breakout season in his second year out of college. The 23-year-old has battled injuries and multiple DP strikers to make his mark in Dean Smith’s team.
With nine goals without penalties and three assists in 1,756 minutes, Agyemang has shown flashes in front of goal. However, he is not just a goalscorer. He is also a nightmare for opposing centre-backs off the dribble. According to American Soccer Analysis’ Goal Added Value, which measures the value of every on-ball action, the Connecticut native ranks seventh among regular starting forwards in dribble value per 96 minutes.
Agyemang’s long stride, power and rapidly improving composure make him a fascinating (and productive) No. 9:
If Charlotte chooses to field a DP over Agyemang in 2025, they shouldn’t be surprised if calls for the late bloomer start pouring in from other teams around the league. More and more MLS clubs are starting to realize that they cannot do that with the right structure around the striker must go out and throw a lot of money on a forward from abroad. There is value to be found at home.
A mess at Cincy
11. Vancouver White Caps
10. Minnesota United
9. New York City FC
8. Real salt lake
7. FC Cincinnati
6. Orlando City
Don’t look now, but things have gotten really bad for FC Cincinnati.
They have had two different four-game winless streaks in their last eleven games and have recorded the fourth-fewest points per game in the entire league during that stretch. The only teams below? San Jose, Nashville and New England. Gulp.
Where did things go wrong for a Cincy team that looked capable of following up their Supporters’ Shield win last year with another trophy this year? They have a talent problem. Sporting director Chris Albright has not built a bad squad, but between brutal injury luck and transfer flops, 2024 has become a mess.
Thanks to season-ending injuries to Matt Miazga and Nick Hagglund, it was an all-hands-on-deck situation at center back. By my count, 10 different players have played at least 100 minutes for Cincy this year in the center of the back line. 10! Heading into the field, Aaron Boupendza had to fill the gap at the top after the departures of Brenner and Brandon Vazquez. Instead, Boupendza’s contract was terminated by MLS in August after a mess incidents off the field.
Knowing they desperately needed a lift in the summer transfer window, FC Cincinnati gave it a try some big swings during the attack. They ultimately sniffed out both Josh Sargent and Germany’s Berterame, bringing former St Louis City striker Niko Gioacchini back to the MLS on short notice.
As bad as things have been, playoff success isn’t completely out of reach. Lucho Acosta, Luca Orellano and a handful of strong players in the back have kept Cincy’s ceiling quite high. Still, they need to discover a new on-field revenue stream – and quickly – with the playoffs just around the corner.
A new contender emerges
5. Seattle sirens
4. LAFC
3. LA system
2. Columbus crew
1. InterMiami
Until a few months ago, there were six teams that looked like legitimate trophy contenders: Inter Miami, the Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, the LA Galaxy, LAFC and Real Salt Lake. Ultimately, Real Salt Lake’s summer transfer window derailed their season and took them off the list. FC Cincinnati also fell for the reasons mentioned above.
While they don’t have the superstars that the four teams above them in this ranking possess, the Seattle Sounders have the best argument to join them in the top flight.
Brian Schmetzer’s team has achieved an impressive 12W-2D-2L in the last sixteen games of the regular season. In that stretch, only Supporters’ Shield winners and potential MLS single-season record holders Inter Miami have beaten them in points per match. In that same stretch, Seattle also has the third-best expected goal difference per match in MLS, according to American Soccer Analysis. Their +0.47 xGD per game puts them above every team not named the Portland Timbers or the Columbus Crew.
Anchored by the best defense in MLS, the Sounders’ commitment to disciplined, compact defense – and execution by brilliant individual defenders within their 4-4-2 structure – sets them apart from all other contenders.
Watch out for MLS: the Seattle Sounders have taken the lead at just the right time.