Mikhail Khodorkovsky gives dire warning about global impact of Vladimir Putin’s potential demise due to Ukraine war: ‘His downfall will lead to unstable nuclear-armed states’

Russia's former richest man has made a disturbing prophecy about the global impact of Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.

As full-scale fighting continues for the 647th day, exiled oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky has predicted the consequences will be the overthrow of Putin's regime – and as Russia crumbles, “unstable, nuclear-armed states” will be left in its wake.

The Yeltsin-era oligarch warned that breaking up the Eastern European giant would be “a huge mistake” because its nuclear arsenal would fall into the hands of “local criminals” such as Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.

He called on the West to try to avoid this catastrophic outcome by helping unite Russian exiles to create a “coalition of opposition forces” and be “smarter in applying sanctions.”

Khodorkovsky, 60, had a net worth of $15 billion at the height of his Yukos oil empire until Putin jailed him in 2003 for alleged tax fraud. Ten years later he was released under pressure from international human rights organizations.

Former chief of staff of the US Army's Space and Missile Defense Command, Kevin Ryan, has also said that nuclear war is a “completely viable” option for Putin if Ukrainian forces make gains on the battlefield.

Writing in German publication Körber Foundation this weekend, Khodorkovsky said that the war in Ukraine has exposed Putin's weaknesses, and that now “his regime is doomed to failure.”

The political exile, who now lives in London, said it is “impossible to predict” when this downfall will occur – but said one thing is certain: the war has “unleashed forces” that will inevitably bring him down.

Khodorkovsky cited the attempted coup by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin as a first glimpse of this, saying his mutiny “could have enabled the kind of crisis that is essential to overthrowing the regime.”

He said the resulting alleged murder of Prighozin and his associates by the Kremlin “demonstrates how widespread dissatisfaction with Putin is within the military and how weak the regime feels, having felt unable to bring the insurgents to justice '.

The Moscow-born commentator said divisions are “likely to arise again” but that people like Prigozhin “will not bring about democratization and the rule of law” and could be even more dangerous than Putin.

“Toppling Putin is a prerequisite for democratic change, but we also need a vision of what comes next,” he wrote.

'The breakup of Russia would be a huge mistake. The states that would emerge would inherit nuclear weapons and be ruled by local criminals such as Ramzan Kadyrov of Chechnya.

“A totalitarian figure could emerge, determined to rebuild the Russian empire, and the resulting militaristic, expansionist entity would once again direct its grievances against Ukraine and the West.”

Khodorkovsky said he doubts Russia is in a position to orchestrate a “power shift towards the rule of law” and that “peaceful demonstrations alone” have little effect against “Putin's brutal regime.”

He said that to avoid a nuclear catastrophe, the West must use the thousands of Russian exiles like him, who “form a cadre of potential revolutionaries,” to prepare to build Russia's “future democratic governance.”

“The opposition abroad must be recognized as a political representative of at least the anti-Putin and anti-war part of Russian society,” he wrote.

“This would help opposition-minded Russians find one voice and signal an alternative center of power.”

Khodorkovsky lamented that replacing Putin with another “strong” dictator would lead to continued “corruption, stagnation and repression” and “expansionist aggression abroad” and advocated the creation of a “democratic federal republic.”

“We need a federal structure that is ratified by the regions, rather than a system in which a strong tsar in the center enables small tsars on the periphery.”

Khodorkovsky also urged the West to be “smarter in the application of sanctions” against Putin's allies.

“We need a predictable mechanism for the introduction and elimination of personal sanctions,” he wrote.

“Selective lifting of sanctions through the granting of visas, banking services and free ownership of assets could boost the fight against the regime.

'At the same time, there must be zero tolerance towards Russians who want to live in European countries but refuse to distance themselves from Putin's regime.

“This is simply dangerous because it implies their dependence on the regime and their likely willingness to be its instrument.

“I believe that not discriminating against Russian citizens who have distanced themselves from Putin's regime would undermine some of the Kremlin's propaganda and help drive an additional part of Russian society away from the regime.”

Khodorkovsky's warning came after an exclusive Daily Mail investigation revealed that Russian soldiers have raped and tortured both men and women in Ukraine.

Putin's forces have now been at war with Ukraine for 647 days, following the massive invasion on February 24 last year.