Windows 12 may not be coming after all, or at least that seems to be the way the rumor mill is suddenly tilting – and Microsoft is also changing the way it will update its desktop operating system in the future, we're told.
This new information comes from Zac Bowden of Windows Centrala well-known leaker about everything related to Microsoft.
Bowden tells us that the next version of Windows (codenamed Hudson Valley) will be heavily focused on AI (quelle surprise) and Microsoft plans to launch it in September or October 2024 – but the final name is a marketing decision that hasn't been made yet.
However, the leaker claims that sources within Microsoft doubt whether it will be Windows 12. The reason? Microsoft is apparently wary of further fragmenting its user base with a new release that goes by a different name – and we totally understand where that line of thinking comes from (we'll get to that soon).
This doesn't rule out Windows 12, of course, but it certainly sounds like Microsoft is on its way to sticking with a new release of Windows 11 for the next incarnation.
Bowden is also chewing over alleged changes to the way Windows updates are delivered, and sources within Microsoft have indicated that there will be a return to a major annual feature update – with fewer 'Moment' (smaller) feature updates.
We're currently getting a slew of Moment updates – we're up to Moment 4 this year, with a fifth planned for February or March next year – and an annual upgrade (23H2 this year) that was a bit smaller in terms of feature content (since there were many features were already introduced with those Moment updates).
Next year, with fewer Moment updates – we're told these will still exist but be used “sparingly” – the big upgrade for later in 2024 (Hudson Valley) will be a bigger affair. In short, Microsoft will put more emphasis on the major annual update in the future, at least that is the theory.
Analysis: Two buckets are better than three
So if Microsoft chooses to make Hudson Valley a brand new release called Windows 12 (or some other alternative – Windows AI perhaps), what is the danger of fragmentation referred to here?
Well, if Windows 12 were to come out next year, there would be a bunch of people moving to that operating system, a bunch of people still running Windows 11, and a whole bunch of users still running Windows 10 (in many cases remain behind a hardware upgrade barrier). – either because they don't have TPM functionality on their PC, or because their CPU is too old).
This would split the user base across three buckets instead of two, which seems like a clunky approach, and maintaining all of this will also ultimately make for a more clunky and difficult to manage process.
Funnily enough, we've just seen a leak suggesting that Windows 11 24H2 is coming, which is what Hudson Valley's name will no doubt be if Microsoft sticks with Windows 11 – so this adds some weight to the speculation here.
Again, this obviously doesn't rule out Windows 12, but it's starting to look a little less likely.