Messi or Ronaldo? The world’s best footballer, according to science – so do YOU agree?

It’s a debate football fans can squabble over for hours.

But the argument over who is the best player, Messi or Ronaldo, may have been settled by a Premiership number cruncher.

Lionel Messi, who has long been nicknamed the GOAT, meaning the greatest of all time, really rises above Cristiano Ronaldo, according to the expert.

Dr. Ian Graham, who until recently headed the data analytics team at Liverpool Football Club, has spent his entire career figuring out who the best players are from every statistical angle.

He told the Cheltenham Science Festival: ‘They’re about the same for scoring goals. Ronaldo is slightly ahead. But if you take penalties, Messi is slightly ahead.’

This is because there is a 75 percent chance of scoring from a penalty, which is much higher than from a ball in play.

Dr. Graham said: ‘Ronaldo is cheating by having those 0.75 expected goals.

The difference is that Messi is also a world-class attacking midfielder.

“The chances he creates for his teammates are an order of magnitude greater than Ronaldo’s.

Messi does two jobs brilliantly. Ronaldo does one job brilliantly. That is the difference.’

Portuguese player Ronaldo, who plays for Saudi club Al Nassr, holds the world record for most goals scored in international football.

Argentina’s Messi is the only other footballer to have scored more than 100 goals in UEFA club competitions, but he surpassed his closest rival by winning the World Cup in December.

Messi is coming from Paris St-Germain to Inter Miami, despite being handed a deal to become the world’s highest paid footballer by Saudi club Al Hilal in March.

According to Dr. Graham, the ranking of the two modern greats is not the only insight provided by statistics, who also suggested that slightly dishonest behavior could provide a serious statistical advantage.

During his time at Liverpool FC, he told the science festival: ‘Nobody at the club had seen anything about data when I started.

“I was told I was the most cynical man in football.

Penalty kicks have a 75 per cent chance of a goal. If you have the ball and your intuition says you have a 20 per cent chance of scoring, if you see the great central defender coming towards you, are you going to take a little dive to turn that into a 75 per cent chance?

“This is not to encourage cheating, but to show that if you get the chance to be tackled, a penalty is by far the most valuable thing in football.”

Explaining other bad behavior in the wonderful game, he added: “If you are leading 1-0 late in the game and the opponent is through on goal then you are doing the right thing for your team to be sent off by committing an offence. cynical challenge.’

Insights from the talk, titled Goals Expected, include that legendary former Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson left the club at just the right time, in 2013.

Dr. Graham said: ‘From a data point of view, it’s amazing how Alex Ferguson built a team that was just aging when he left.

“It really cemented his legacy.”

Of European footballers, Dr Graham said: ‘Any statistical model will tell you that Kylian Mbappé is the best player in Europe right now.

“Unfortunately, financially, he’s out of the Liverpool league.”

In addition to football data, financial modeling is used to identify players who offer the best value for money.

“We’re looking for the best performing players per pound,” he said.

There were also myths about Pele’s best World Cup, which apparently wasn’t the 1970 competition in which he captivated the crowd and scored one of the four goals that saw Brazil beat Italy in the final.

People may misremember this because of the excitement of the match shown in color.

In the mid-2000s, analysts only had one row of basic statistics including goals, shots, corners and yellow cards for every game, but Champions League datasets now include movement data from every second of a game for every player involved.

England captain Harry Kane is one of the players with incredible statistics, but it could start to suffer as he gets older.

On his worth, Dr Graham said: ‘He’s 29. It’s going to be a high transfer fee for three years of performance that might start to fall.’

Experts say football players, despite often having no instinctive interest in data, are slowly becoming more aware of its use.

Duncan Alexander, a broadcaster and author who also spoke at the event, said Manchester City player Kevin De Bruyne went ‘pretty deep’ into the details of recently renegotiating his contract. can be useful in contract negotiations.

“Even if you’re not interested fundamentally… if it means you can make more money, you’ll be interested.”

Brighton and Brentford, who have just completed remarkable seasons in the Premier League, are two very data-driven clubs, whose owners apparently have a gambling background.

Dr. Graham said, “They’ve reaped the rewards. Now they are two of the biggest success stories in Europe.’