Melbourne Cup race day forecast: Rain, hail at Flemington as snow forecast in NSW

The race that stops the nation will suffer the coldest weather in decades with torrential rains, thunderstorms, hail and snow forecasts off Australia’s east coast.

But the bitter cold spell isn’t expected to deter Melbourne Cup gamblers, with around 80,000 people expected to race through the gates of Flemington Racecourse before the main event kicks off at 3pm AEDT.

Race-goers are warned to dress warmly for the 14C highs and pack an umbrella and wellington boots with an afternoon of thunder and hail predicted.

In Sydney, race goers on their way to Randwick Racecourse will do much better with a mostly sunny day and a top of 24C.

But further inland in NSW, temperatures will drop, with snow expected in the Blue Mountains and in central-west Orange on Wednesday.

The icy blast is not expected to dampen enthusiasm in Melbourne as a cold front approaches and descends from the west temperatures six to 16 degrees below average.

It’s due to a huge pool of cold Antarctic air being flung northward by a deep low-pressure system near Tasmania.

“Melbourne Cup Day will see a maximum of 14 degrees (in Melbourne), making it the coldest Cup day since 1995,” said BoM meteorologist Jonathan How.

“We expect occasional showers during the day and they can be heavy, with some hail and thunder, including around race time.

“It will also be quite cold, with a cold wind, so we definitely recommend that people bring warm clothes to Flemington.”

The last time race-goers experienced a hot Melbourne Cup day was in 2014, when temperatures rose just above 29 degrees.

In 2020 the temperature on Cup Day was 30 degrees, but due to Covid-19 restrictions there were no crowds at Flemington.

This year marks the first time since 2019 that crowds have been allowed to return to Flemington for the big race.

While strong cold fronts outside of winter are not unknown in the southern states, this is a notable cold system for November because of its strength and duration.

The cold weather is likely to continue for the next few days.

“Not only will this be cold and very windy, but it will also be a wet system for pretty much everywhere on the southeastern mainland, except for the narrow strip east of the mountain ranges along the east coast,” weather zone said.

“So Melbourne will be able to handle the full power of this system, while Sydney will be isolated from the worst of the cold and wet, although it should get some pretty strong winds.”

Chilly late spring weather could see snow falling in Tasmania, Victoria and NSW, just below 1,000m, from Tuesday.

They include Mount Buller and Falls Creek in Victoria, while in NSW, Thredbo, Katoomba and Orange.

Widespread rain and storms will hit southeastern Queensland, eastern NSW and Victoria and Tasmania, adding further flooding to some areas already hard hit.

Australians on the east coast have suffered swampy and cold La Nina weather for nearly three years since the end of the bushfires in the summer of 2019-2020.

And while some Aussies were treated to a sunny weekend, the rain is forecast to return with another few wet days.

For the flood-ravaged parts of NSW such as Moree, Narabri, Dubbo and along the western slopes, it is likely to cause flooding again.

“We are looking at the possibility of renewed minor to major flooding for some of those rivers in NSW,” said Mr How.

“Some of those rivers already have flood warnings, so it might just prolong those peaks and cause some flash flooding and thunderstorms as well.”

Areas of Victoria that have been hit by flooding in recent weeks could also experience further flooding in the coming days due to heavy rainfall.

Mr How said that while parts of Australia ‘tend to get cold snaps which could happen in the first half of November… what we’re seeing (in the next few days) is quite unusually cold’.

“We can see snow as far as, possibly, the central plateaux of NSW in places like Oberon, and some hills around Bathurst may see some gusts Tuesday evening and Wednesday,” he said.

However, the NSW coast will escape the worst of the weather.

Most rain is expected west of the Great Divide. So Sydney won’t see much, it’s mostly inland areas,’ said Mr How.