A massive earthquake could hit the American heartland, home to at least 11 million Americans, in the next 50 years.
Scientists say a relatively unexplored 150-mile (240-kilometer) area across Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois has the potential to produce a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake.
The National Guard conducted an earthquake preparedness exercise in St. Louis this week, simulating a focused response to a magnitude 8.4 quake.
Robbie Myers, emergency coordinator for the Missouri Department of Safety, said experts estimate the chance of an earthquake of that magnitude occurring within the next 50 years is about 40 percent. “Every year that goes by, the chance increases.”
The 150-mile-long (240-kilometer) New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), which stretches across parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois, has a 40 percent chance of experiencing an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0 or greater in the next 50 years.
TThe greatest devastation is expected in St. Louis, Missouri and Memphis.
But Myers said thousands of people could die, bridges across the Mississippi could collapse, major highways such as Interstate 55 could collapse and oil and gas pipelines could rupture, causing disruptions across the country.
Historical records indicate that the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) produced three major events believed to have had magnitude 7 or greater between December 1811 and February 1812, as well as ruptures in the 15th and 10th centuries.
“(An earthquake) in the next 50 years is a big possibility, and people need to take precautions,” Myers said.
‘There is nothing more urgent right now and with every year that passes the opportunity becomes greater.’
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released its latest National Seismic Hazard Model earlier this year, which found that 75 percent of the U.S. (home to hundreds of millions of Americans) is at risk of damaging earthquakes.
The model, last updated in 2018, included 350 fault lines, bringing the total to about 1,000 fault lines.
The most famous is the San Andreas River that runs through California, but other researchers also warn about NMSZ.
Missouri residents had earthquake drills in school, and many had been following them for as long as they could remember.
Eric Sandvol, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Missouri, told DailyMail.com that scientists “need to do more to understand the earthquakes in this region.”
The National Guard held its first earthquake training in Missouri this week, and cities including Memphis and St. Louis are rebuilding bridges in preparation.
“We are really concerned about bridges, in the event of an earthquake like this,” Sandvol said.
‘If we lose a lot of bridges here, it will be much more difficult to arrange transportation.
“You’re probably going to have to rely much more on the air to get aid and assistance into an affected area, and it’s going to be much more challenging to get people out.”
Experts say at least 11 million Americans live in the danger zone, with the greatest devastation expected to occur in St. Louis and Memphis.
Chris Cramer, a geophysicist at the University of Memphis, said Dark that a major earthquake near New Madrid would cost the country an average of $10 billion per year for 100 years, due to damaged buildings and lost infrastructure.
Most of the earthquake preparations in the U.S. so far have focused on California. Experts say the state of California is already about 80 years overdue for “The Big One,” a massive earthquake that saw tectonic plates slide past each other along the 800-mile-long San Andreas fault.
This focus on California has made it harder for debt experts in Missouri and other states to convince officials and the public to be prepared.
According to the Missouri Department, an earthquake in this area could be more dangerous than what has been recorded on the West Coast.
“Because of the nature of the rocks in the Earth’s crust in the central United States, earthquakes in this region can affect an area about 20 times larger than earthquakes in California,” the Missouri Department of Natural Resources said in a blog post.
Earthquakes occur when tectonic plates suddenly slide past each other, releasing energy in waves that travel through the Earth’s crust, shaking the ground.
Sandvol told DailyMail.com that unlike California, where there are two tectonic plates, the Midwest does not have a single tectonic plate.
“You’re right in the middle of the North American plate. The closest plate boundary you have is the Caribbean,” he said.
“So how come we have earthquakes there? Part of the answer is that we don’t know for sure that there are many of them. We don’t understand them.”
That means there are fault lines that cause earthquakes, which is why the tremors in the area are so strange, he explained to The Kansas City Star.
“Most earthquakes occur at the edges of these plates, such as in California, where we find the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates,” he continued.
Sandvol explained to DailyMail.com that the NMSZ is likely to experience a large earthquake because of the way the Richter scale works, although he noted that the scale is no longer used.
“It says that if we have one earthquake in 100 years that is a magnitude 7 on the Richter scale,” the professor explained.
‘In the same period we expect 10 earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 and 100 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 and 1,000 earthquakes with a magnitude of 4.
“If you see the pattern here for each unit of magnitude. We expect 10 times more from the smaller earthquakes. With respect to the large earthquake.”
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