Mattel shares are part of the Barbie boom rising 22% in three months… but here’s why analysts warn the momentum may not last
- Shares of Nasdaq-listed Mattel are up 22% over the past three months
- But enthusiasm usually wanes in the three months following a movie’s release
Shares in Barbie maker Mattel have soared ahead of the much-anticipated release of the movie of the same name, but analysts are warning that the momentum may not last.
Shares of the Nasdaq-listed toymaker are up 22 percent over the past three months after a shaky start to the year.
The Barbie movie starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, which will hit theaters around the world on July 21, could push the stock price further, but for how long?
The Barbie movie starring Margot Robbie (pictured) will hit theaters July 21
While brand-focused movies tend to create significant share price momentum in the three months leading up to a movie’s release, enthusiasm tends to dampen in the three months that follow, according to an analysis by eToro.
The trading and investment platform analyzed 10 companies whose story was central to a blockbuster movie, or in which they played a prominent role.
And it turned out that shares in such companies followed a meandering path.
One of the most notable examples was Audi, owned by Volkswagen.
The German carmaker saw its share price rise by 14 percent in the run-up to the 2008 film Iron Man, a film in which the car brand featured prominently.
After the release of the film, the share price fell by 8 percent.
Leading up to the 2021 film House of Gucci, the fashion label’s owner, Kering, saw his share price rise 6 percent in the three-month run-up period, but fell 13 percent in the three months after that.
| Movie and release date | Related company | Stock price performance three months earlier | Price development three months later |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air (05/05/23) | Nike | -1% | -14% |
| Top Gun: Maverick (05/27/22) | Northrop Grumman | 15% | 3% |
| House of Gucci (11/24/21) | barrier | 6% | -13% |
| No Time to Die (9/30/21) | Aston Martin | 2% | -32% |
| Ford vs Ferrari (11/15/19) | ford | 3% | -11% |
| Ford vs Ferrari (11/15/19) | Ferrari | 8% | 6% |
| The Founder (20/01/17) | McDonald’s | 11% | 9% |
| Steve Jobs (10/23/16) | Apple | 18% | 3% |
| Saving Mr. Banks (13/12/13) | disney | 4% | 15% |
| Iron Man (02/05/08) | Audi (VW) | 14% | -8% |
| Average | 8% | -4.3% | |
| Source: eToro |
Similarly, in the run-up to the 2013 Steve Jobs movie, Apple enjoyed an 18 percent increase in its stock price, but in subsequent months, its stock price rose only 3 percent.
The 10 companies analyzed saw an average share price increase of 8 percent in the run-up to the release of their film.
But the brands then saw an average share price drop of 4.3 percent three months after the release of the films.
Ben Laidler, eToro’s global markets strategist, said this suggests the rise in stock price appears to be temporary, as half of the companies saw their prices drop.
“The highly anticipated Barbie movie showcases two of the hottest topics in the global media industry: the growth of blockbuster movie franchises and massive revenue from product placement,” he added.
Since its launch in 1956, Barbie has become one of the largest entertainment franchises alongside Star Wars, Disney Princess, Marvel and Harry Potter, with spin-offs from merchandise sales to TV shows.
“The global product placement industry is valued at more than $25 billion a year and is growing at double digit rates, with brands increasingly willing to pay for this type of mass media exposure.”
Industry forecasts suggest the film will gross as much as £850 million – ten times its production cost.
And thanks to its popularity, sales of Barbie figurines, which hit the £1.15 billion mark last year, are expected to surge as the price of vintage models explodes.