Yesterday morning I received a revealing text message from an American general. “I think I spoke too soon and was too gloomy,” he wrote.
He referred to a conversation we had had a fortnight ago, in which he gloomily told me that there was little chance of a meaningful advance by Ukrainian troops against their Russian invaders before next spring.
However, as his subsequent text message acknowledged, the landscape looks very different today. Yesterday we learned that after three months of heavy fighting and weeks of painstaking demining, Ukrainian troops have decisively breached Russia’s first line of defense near Zaporizhia in the south-east of the country.
This is not only a major military breakthrough that could eventually split the occupied Russian territory in two. It is also a sharp refutation of recent anonymous grumbling from some quarters of the international military and political community that Ukrainian combat tactics are not exactly efficient.
Pessimistic voices also included those from the German Defense Ministry who suggested that Ukrainian troops were not using the NATO tactics they had been taught.
Yesterday morning I received a revealing text message from an American general. “I think I spoke too soon and was too gloomy,” he wrote
Ukrainian soldiers fire a mortar at Russian troops in their position near a front line
Meanwhile, there were whispers in Washington that senior Ukrainian officers were too “victim-avoidant” to really succeed. None of these criticisms are even remotely fair. NATO’s tactics are largely based on the assumption of air and artillery superiority, which Ukraine lacks.
And while Kiev’s 70,000 death toll is lower than Russia’s 120,000 deaths, it must be seen in the context of the country’s huge population – three times that of its smaller neighbour. In relative terms, Ukraine’s losses are even greater: their courage has been exemplary and they are only as “victim-avoiding” as the theater of war requires.
The timing of this breakthrough is therefore crucial. The mood among many Western commentators has been strikingly defeatist lately, even discussing the need to negotiate with the tyrant Vladimir Putin. Certain Western governments have also weakened in their willingness to provide aid to the Ukrainians. In Washington, a presidential election is looming, and officials on Capitol Hill are well aware that most Americans are preoccupied with domestic issues.
Europe, too, is facing rising energy and living costs, and voters find foreign aid much harder to sell. But the simple fact is that, in addition to Western tanks and artillery, our billions in financial aid have kept the Ukrainian economy alive.
Without this war, Kiev would be in a very different position, as Putin knows very well. Therefore, one of his goals is to keep his war going long enough for the wellspring of Western enthusiasm to dry up. My gloomy conversation with that American general two weeks ago suggested that this might pay off. But now finally some good news: a major victory that promises to boost both Western allies and the embattled defending population.
Breaking through this first line of defense raises hopes for further breakthroughs as Ukraine seeks to cut the crucial ‘land bridge’ connecting the Crimean peninsula to mainland Russia. The Ukrainians, of course, still have a long way to go: Russia’s second line of defense would be stronger than the first.
This is not only a major military breakthrough that could eventually split the occupied Russian territory in two
A British intelligence source, with whom I discussed the latest news yesterday, was also extremely optimistic
Nevertheless, defense lines can break like dams: first cracks appear, and then suddenly they collapse. That may take some time in this case, but Moscow is clearly feeling the pressure and redeploying troops to Zaporizhia, from Kherson in the west and Lyman in the northeast.
History will judge whether these latest advances will really determine the ultimate outcome of the war. But it will generate much-needed momentum ahead of heavy winter rains that make significant progress all but impossible.
A British intelligence source, with whom I discussed the latest news yesterday, was also extremely optimistic, predicting that ‘by the time the Ukrainian offensive ends for the winter, the Russian supply lines will be under their arms’. We have to hope he’s right.
Mark Galeotti is an honorary professor at University College London School of Slavonic and East European Studies and the author of 24 books on Russia, including a biography of Putin.