For most of us, Mauritius is a holiday paradise, a nirvana for eco-tourists and honeymooners far removed from the pendulums of world politics and global crises.
But this sultry island in the Indian Ocean is now the unlikely epicenter of a chilling power struggle between America and China.
At the heart of this rivalry is the remote Chagos Archipelago. It is uninhabited except for Diego Garcia Island, which is home to a major Anglo-American military base.
Owned by the Department of Defense but loaned to the US, it is Washington’s most important asset in the vast Indo-Pacific region west of Pearl Harbor.
Looking north, all of America’s major rivals are within range of the B-52 bombers. From Diego Garcia, Iraq and Afghanistan could be bombed from the base’s two-mile runway.
MARK ALMOND: At the heart of this rivalry is the remote Chagos Archipelago. It is uninhabited except for Diego Garcia Island, which is home to a major Anglo-American military base
The US could even launch cruise missiles deep into Russia’s vulnerable southern flank or towards China. Their fighter jets can reach vital shipping channels, trade routes and even potential Chinese bases anywhere from Djibouti to Pakistan.
In other words, the security of the West rests on this 17-square-mile atoll.
But Britain and America’s control of Diego Garcia is in jeopardy – at a time when Chinese President Xi Jinping has set his sights on the island.
What does this have to do with Mauritius, which is more than a thousand miles southwest of Diego Garcia?
The UK claimed Mauritius from France in the 19th century and it remained a British colony until 1968.
But in the 1960s and 1970s, Britain removed the local population from the Chagos Archipelago to make way for the US base on Diego Garcia. Whitehall’s reason was to house Washington’s strategic airbase and listening post there so that it could keep an eye on the Soviet Union from the south.
At that time, Mauritius had no say in the fate of its outlying islands. But the world order has changed and the world has awakened to the battle cries of Mauritius.
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MARK ALMOND: Owned by the Department of Defense but loaned to the US, it is Washington’s most important asset in the vast Indo-Pacific region west of Pearl Harbor
In 2019, the International Court of Justice, the highest court of the United Nations, ruled that the British occupation of the islands was illegal. Last year, Liz Truss started negotiations with Mauritius for a handover of the Chagos Islands.
Now Britain is about to hand over sovereignty. But America does not want to give up its crucial strategic asset on Diego Garcia – as the US Navy has been the dominant force in the Indian Ocean so far. Mauritius is currently negotiating with Washington to lease it to the archipelago at a certain price.
And in a move that could dramatically inflate diplomatic tensions, China is also seeking Mauritius.
Xi has invested in Mauritius, developing its tourism infrastructure and buying friends and influence there.
Many Mauritians are of Chinese descent, a legacy of a migration plan devised by French settlers, and Beijing hopes to tap into their patriotic nostalgia.
China has long been expanding its own sphere of influence on crucial trade routes through the South China Sea. Now Beijing is trying to secure its long-distance routes through the Indian Ocean to the oil of the Middle East. Placing their own navy and bases in the region strengthens their global trade.
China is trying to acquire a counter base to America’s on Diego Garcia. Of course, Washington wouldn’t like that. But China has a precedent for acquiring a rival base to America’s in the same country. Djibouti, a microstate on the East African coast, is already home to three military bases – owned by France, China and the US.
All this means that Mauritius could be at the center of an aggressive bidding war between both Washington and Beijing over the Chagos Islands.
MARK ALMOND: But Britain and America’s control of Diego Garcia is in jeopardy – at a time when Chinese President Xi Jinping has set his sights on the island
Who will win? Alarmingly for the West, Beijing has the know-how to turn a desert island into an air base and a deep coffers to buy the rights. As it has shown in the South China Sea, it can mobilize the resources to turn a sandbank into solid land almost overnight.
And poor Mauritius could be looking for new tenants.
The only humans left out of this great power game are the Chagossians, set adrift 50 years ago.
Meanwhile, their ancient home islands could now be the battlegrounds of the New Cold War between America and China – the Cubas of tomorrow.