A fascinating chart shows how the world is in the midst of a reproductive crisis – as developed countries stop falling in love with having children.
In 2020, the global average fertility rate – the average number of children each woman has – was 2.3, compared to 4.7 in 1970 – a staggering 51 percent drop in half a century. In parts of Europe and North America, fewer than two births per woman are recorded on average.
While fertility rates are falling in much of the world, they continue to grow in Africa. Thirty-one of the top 32 countries with the highest fertility rates are on the continent, with Niger in first place with a rate of 6.9 children per woman.
South Korea has the dubious honor of having the world’s lowest fertility rate, with each woman having an average of 0.8 children. In both the US and UK, the fertility rate in 2020 was 1.6.
The global fertility rate fell by 51% between 1970 and 2020, from 4.9 children per woman to just 2.3. If it falls below 2.1, the world’s population will begin to decline, experts warn. Birth rates have fallen in much of the developed world, with only African countries remaining at the top
The fertility rate of the US (green) and UK (orange) dropped rapidly in the 1970s, and despite occasional small upticks, it has steadily declined over the years
The image from Visual Capitalist collected data from the World Bank, an international development organization led by world governments from 1960 to 2020.
The downward trend in fertility rates in the developed world is the result of multiple factors.
Women have children much later in life because they prioritize careers.
Couples also settle down and get married much later, reducing the biological chance for women to have children. Declining male fertility is also believed to play a role, linked to poor nutrition and sedentary lifestyles.
But some commentators — including Elon Musk — fear falling fertility rates could lead to stagnant populations, destroying many countries’ economies and overwhelming public support systems.
According to World Bank data, 106 countries have fertility rates below 2.1, a benchmark experts say is necessary for a country to maintain its current population. Three countries – South Korea, Hong Kong and Puerto Rico – have rates below 1.0.
Also among the worst in the world are Macau (fertility rate 1.0), Singapore (1.1), Malta (1.1), Ukraine (1.2), Spain (1.2), Italy (1.2) and China (1.3).
All of the world’s fertility rate leaders are in Africa.
Somalia (6.4), Chad (6.4), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (6.2), Mali (6.0), and the Central African Republic (6.0) are the top five countries in terms of fertility rates . over 6.0.
Countries that lead the world in fertility are generally poorer countries that score poorly on development indices, have poorer sex education and access to contraception.
Dr. Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, told DailyMail.com that the developed world was shifting away from traditional family values.
She said in January: “There has been more emphasis on spending time building a career. Adults are changing their attitudes about having children.
“They choose to spend money and time in different ways… [that] come into conflict with parenthood.’
She continued that younger people are now also showing more interest in leisure activities and travel than before, in addition to building a career.
‘[Wanting to travel] just conflicts with parenting,” she said.
Many have pointed to the high cost of child care, student debt of Americans in their early 20s, and other financial problems.
A report from the First Five Year Fund found that the cost of raising a child has risen 220 percent over the past three decades — with it costing about $10,000 a year to raise a child under six.
Americans also now owe more than $3 trillion in collective student debt, a figure that has doubled in the past 20 years.
Large chunks of this debt are in the hands of people in their 20s and 30s – who are of childbearing age.
Census data predicts that the US population will begin to decline by 2035 – unprecedented in the country’s 250-year history.
Dr. Kearney warns that the government would have to gradually collect more taxes to keep the programs going – while providing fewer benefits to each individual recipient.
China once tried to curb its population with a one-child policy, which was in effect from 1980 to 2016.
The Asian nation, the largest in the world by population at 1.4 billion people, is now facing a crisis. There are not enough young people to support an aging population and younger women – like many women in the West – prefer career and leisure to raising a family.
This will make the situation even worse over time as fertility rates are likely to fall even further over time.
Fertility in the US has fallen sharply in recent decades (above). The average American woman will have only 1.6 children in her lifetime, well below the replacement level of 2.1. It’s down 15 percent from the rate of 1.9 in 2010. North Dakota, South Dakota, and Alaska are the most fertile states in America, with more than 65 annual births per 1,000 fertile elderly women (center left). Fertility rates fell the most since 2005 in Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and California (center right)
Dr. Phillip Levine, an economist at Wellesley College in Massachusetts, warned DailyMail.com that an economic reorganization will be needed to keep the country afloat. services for the elderly.
This will “ultimately have a detrimental effect on social cohesion and general well-being as well as on economic dynamism,” he warned.
Dr. Christopher Murray, a global health expert from the University of Washington, told DailyMail.com: “Since most real estate or consumer durables purchases are made by working-age adults, this will tend to put downward pressure on these types of assets.
‘In the long run, societies must adapt to the fact that there are more grandparents than grandchildren.
“We’re really just beginning to understand the myriads [of] challenges that persistent low fertility will have on societies.’
In research published last week, Dr. Kearney and Dr. Levine explored possible causes of this decline in fertility. They found that financial problems play less of a role than
But the researchers don’t think this financial strain is a significant part of the problem.
They cite Scandinavian countries such as Sweden (fertility rate 1.6) and Norway (1.5), which have strong welfare states but also struggle with declining birth rates, as examples of why the problem is deeper than economics.
Their research found little correlation around the world, and in the US, between available government childcare subsidies and changes in fertility.
Income has also not proven to be a factor – with the decline being felt among women across all socioeconomic and educational levels.
Lower-income women are even more likely to have children than their wealthier peers, with experts pointing out that they have less access to family planning and sex education.
America, and many other Western countries, will face long-term damage unless they can come up with a solution.
“Falling birth rates will put America in a position where there are “more elderly people and fewer workers,” Dr. Kearney explains.
This will emphasize public programs such as Social Security and Medicare, where a younger workforce funds care for the elderly.
A smaller workforce will also lead to overall economic contraction and a “less dynamic, less productive economy,” she says.
Dr. Kearney warns that the average American’s overall quality of life can decline over time.
Immigration can help the country maintain a stable workforce in the short term.
Dr. Levine says the entire economy may need to reform around changing demographics.
Government leaders will need to invest more in human capital – making education and vocational training more accessible to ensure that each individual worker becomes more productive.
Industries that focus on the elderly, such as aged care, should expect to grow – while toy and game companies should expect to shrink.