Map shows the 22 Australian towns and suburbs on track to vote Yes to the Voice to Parliament – and the suburbs where the biggest ‘No’ voters in Australia live

The Vote for Parliament referendum is on track to lose all six states and win just 22 of the 151 constituencies in Australia’s federal parliament, according to modeling by an internationally acclaimed pollster.

UK-based research group Focal Data predicts the nation will vote No by 61 per cent to the Yes campaign’s 39 per cent in Saturday’s referendum, after polling 4,500 Australians and modeling the outcome in each state.

The only Yes seats are in the inner cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane – including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s Grayndler and Sydney seats.

The Yes campaign has also won Greens-held strongholds, including Adam Bandt’s electorate of Melbourne and the south-east Queensland seats of Brisbane and Griffith, which were won by Greens new gun Stephen Bates and Max Chandler-Mather in the last election.

But 129 of the total 151 seats in the House of Representatives are on track to vote No, according to poll estimates, including a string of electorates in Sydney – including Warringah on the northern beaches and Wentworth in the eastern suburbs.

Even Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney’s own seat of Barton, in Sydney’s south, is predicted to vote No by a narrow margin – 53 per cent to 47 per cent, the data showed.

One Queensland seat – Bob Katter’s northern seat of Kennedy, which is home to Cairns and Townsville – is predicted to vote 84 per cent No for the Voice. Eight of the 10 seats most likely to vote No are located in Queensland.

If the poll is correct, the No vote will triumph in every state – the worst-case scenario for Mr. Albanians and Yes activists. A referendum needs a majority of states and a majority of national votes to be held.

While several polls, including Redbridge, Newspoll and Essential, have tracked the fall in the Yes vote during the campaign, this is the most detailed projection to date.

The seats of Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are all trending towards a Yes vote, but in the suburbs, voters are less convinced.

The City of Sydney is recording the highest voter support for the Voice so far with 70 per cent in favour, with Prime Minister Grayndler following on 64.5 per cent.

Melbourne is trailing with a rating of 64 per cent, with Canberra on 62 per cent and Adelaide on 59 per cent.

Beyond that, most Yes fringes are simply crossing the line, the data suggests.

“This leaves Australia more divided than ever on the basis of inner city versus rural,” a Focal Data spokesperson said in a statement.

“More broadly, it’s a consequence that could have been lifted straight out of the UK’s Brexit analysis – except the Yes side is materially worse off than Remain.”

Bennelong in NSW – which takes in Chatswood, Ryde and Gladesville – Ryan in Queensland and Chisholm in Victoria – which includes Glen Waverely and Mulgrave – all have around 50 per cent support, with Cooper in Victoria falling to 51 per cent.

Greenway and Kingsford Smith in NSW, Wills in Victoria, Griffith in Queensland, Bean in the ACT and Perth all recorded Yes votes with a support rate of around 52 per cent.

The rest of the Yes electorate – Clark in Tasmania, Fenner in the ACT, Higgins and Macnamara in Victoria and North Sydney and Reid in NSW – have support somewhere between 56 and 57 per cent.

According to the data, no seat held by the Liberal Party is on track for a Yes vote.

But there are 15 places where Zeri has the support of 47 percent or more of poll participants – meaning the referendum could still prevail in those areas when accounting for a small margin of error.

Wealthy seats held by ‘brown Independents’ are split in the Voice. While Kylea Tink’s North Sydney is on track for a Yes vote, Monique Ryan’s Kooyong and Allegra Spender’s Wentworth are narrowly voting No at this stage, with 49 per cent of support.

In Warringah, which includes the affluent suburbs on the lower northern beaches, support for the Voice in the latest poll is around 44 per cent, while it drops to 37 per cent in the upper northern beaches suburbs of Mackellar.

Australian Minister Linda Burney’s seat of Barton, made up of Kogarah, Bexley and Hurstville, is one of 15 seats with over 47 per cent support, but short of the 50 per cent threshold needed for a Yes vote.

Queensland is leading the charge against Voice in the Focal Point, accounting for eight of the top 10 no-vote constituencies.

In Bob Katter’s Kennedy electorate, including Cairns and Townsville, opposition to the Voice is around 84 per cent, while Nationals leader David Littleproud’s big margin for Maranoa is around 81 per cent.

Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn, Hinkler, Wilde Bay and Wright in Queensland all oppose the Voice at 75 per cent or higher according to the data.

Mallee in Victoria and O’Connor in Western Australia are the only two electorates outside Queensland where opposition to Voice is at 75 per cent or above.

The latest poll comes after The Australian published its latest Newspoll, which found support for Voice to Parliament fell ahead of this week’s referendum.

National support for Zeri fell to 34 percent in the last two weeks before Austrians went to the polls on October 14.

The referendum’s approval rating has hit its lowest point since it was first proposed, while support for a No vote rose by two points to 58 percent.

Around eight percent of voters are still undecided, but since the ‘don’t know’ category has been removed as an option, the split becomes 37/63 in favor of a No vote.

The poll, which polled 1,225 voters nationally between October 3 and 6, found a worrying trend for the Yes campaign among its core group of voters.

For the first time, support for the referendum fell below 50 percent among voters aged 18 to 34.

New voters intending to vote No rose by eight percentage points to 49 per cent, with those planning to vote Yes falling by four points to 46 per cent.