SSome days you wonder why the FA Cup seems so confused. Saturday’s final felt like a throwback: a sunny spring day, a sense of subplots coming together in an event that really mattered, drama on the pitch and ultimately a shock. Maybe it wasn’t quite Sunderland to beat Leeds in 1973 or Southampton to beat Manchester United in 1976 (or even Wigan to beat Manchester city in 2013). But United finished lower in the league (eighth) this season Wimbledon (seventh) did it when they beat champions Liverpool in 1988. The status and history of the clubs should not disguise what a shock United’s victory over City was.
It was a great event for United. For them a first FA Cup in eight years and only their second trophy in seven years, a step up from the League Cup they won Erik ten Hag last season. But more than that, they prevented City from becoming the first club to win the double in consecutive seasons. It’s not just about succeeding; it’s about the failure of others, especially your closest rivals.
But it was even more than that. Nobody has any luck against City. No one just scores a goal out of nowhere and then retreats to the bunker, crossing their fingers and watching the shots whistle by. The city is too good for that. United were lucky at times: Erling Haaland hit the bar and André Onana made one brilliant save Kyle Walkerbut Opta had United beating the xG 1.59-1.35.
In retrospect, elements of United’s strategy had been visible in the 3-1 defeat to City in early March: the deep-lying centre-forward, the box midfield, the quick counter-punching down the flanks. On that occasion, having taken an eight-minute lead, they held on until the 56th, when everything fell apart. But United were better at Wembley than they were then, and City worse.
The Josko Gvardiol error that led to this Alejandro Garnacho‘s opener was a bonus for United, but it didn’t come out of nowhere. They had probed with that kind of ball, trying to unleash its pace Marcus Rashford and Garnacho. Walker had matched that with his extreme pace; Gvardiol was not, although the error was greater Stefan Ortega‘s, where the goalkeeper was in a position where he could neither win the ball nor receive it usefully from the left back.
United’s second was rather different: a slick transition move, culminating in a glorious disguised pass from Bruno Fernandes for Kobbie Mainoo to score. But it might be good; City players slowly retreated and the spaces around the penalty area were stunning. It’s very easy to construct grand theories and project explanations for such failures – sometimes things just go wrong – but at that moment City looked like a team that, at the end of a long season that had brought even more success, had had lost some hunger. and therefore a vital lead. One of the Pep Guardiola‘s greatest gift is his intensity, the way his teams keep going and hoarding trophies; it wasn’t clear there.
City made two substitutions on the break and the comeback came, but until a late error from Onana, which spoiled an excellent game for him, it never really seemed to be enough. What leaves us where? Reports before the match had indicated United would sack Ten Hag regardless of the outcome, while reports on Monday suggested Guardiola is planning to walk away from City next summer.
That fit with Guardiola’s comment after City conquered the Premier League that he was closer to leaving than staying. Jurgen KloppLiverpool’s departure from Liverpool suggested a man who clearly understood and felt deeply the pressure of high-level management. On the one hand, there is his desire to win and surpass two more Champions Leagues Carlo Ancelotti as the most successful manager in the competition’s history, something he is almost certainly best placed to do at City; on the other hand, there is the sense of fatigue, perhaps prompted by the 115 Premier League charges the club still faces, and the knowledge that the rebuilding of the squad, although begun, still has a long way to go.
Ten Hag’s situation will likely be resolved more quickly. These decisions should not actually be based on a single match, not even a cup final. For example, Chelsea made Roberto di Matteo‘s period as interim manager is permanent after he won the Champions League in 2012 and almost immediately regretted it. After two seasons with Ten Hag at United, there is more than enough evidence on which to base a decision, without the emotion of a victory at Wembley carrying too much weight.
What the victory did do was make firing Ten Hag more difficult. Fans may now be more inclined to give him the benefit of every doubt. If he has to be replaced, there is immediately something for the new manager to achieve: there is the potential that he will be haunted by the thought that Ten Hag has won the cup, that Ten Hag managed to beat City.
And yet the fact remains that United have been awful for much of this season. With the highest wage bill they finished eighth, their lowest ever position in the Premier League. They had a goal difference of -1. They conceded more shots than any other side Sheffield United, who set a record for the number of goals conceded. They seemed disjointed for much of the season, as Ten Hag made a series of stunning public statements. Perhaps most damning are the transfers with which he was most closely involved Anthonywere generally terrible.
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United itself speaks this week of a season overview that will determine Ten Hag’s future, although the first polls about possible replacements have certainly already been made. Mauricio Pochettino And Thomas Tuchel are available while Thomas Frank And Roberto De Zerbi are also seen as targets.
But if this is the end of Ten Hag, he will leave United in a heartbeat Louis van Gaal did, challenging and with a trophy. And he does so by making the FA Cup, at least temporarily, look like a trophy that matters again.
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This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, the Guardian US’s weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Do you have a question for Jonathan? Email footballwithjw@theguardian.com and he will provide the best answer in a future edition