TThere are only two points left in this: Manchester City 73, Arsenal 71, Liverpool 71. It’s not over yet. If the three keep pace over the next five games, it will still be the first season since 1971-72 in which three different sides go into their final game of the season with a chance to win the title. The hope for anyone looking for a dramatic encounter is that this weekend was just the beginning of a final month full of twists and turns. But the feeling is that the race has taken a decisive shift towards City and a fourth successive title for Pep Guardiola’s team.
It’s not just that City swept aside Luton 5-1. You would expect that; they beat them 6–2 in the FA Cup in February. Nor was it just the fact that Liverpool lost at home to Crystal Palace, having beaten opponent Jurgen Klopp more than anyone else, or that Arsenal lost at home to Aston Villa, led by their former manager Unai Emery, with every detail cut to the chase. abandoned. a bit further. It was the way they lost, after the way Arsenal had played by drawing against Bayern Munich in the Champions League and the way Liverpool had played by losing to Atalanta in the Europa League.
Arsenal were cruising against Bayern when David Raya’s inexplicable strike put Gabriel under pressure, leading to the equalizer. Although they eventually fought back to level the match, there was a feeling on Sunday of a side still out of balance; Arsenal remain a fearful team; dominant when things are going well, but prone to stumbling when not. Liverpool’s problems lie on both sides: this season they have conceded the first goal 21 times in a league match, which is always going to cause problems if for some reason – lack of precision, loss of confidence, setback – the goals are dry up, whatever they did. .
This is what teams used to look like during the run-up: loaded, exhausted, tired, muscles tensing as the finish line comes into view. City had that when they won the league in 2011-12, their first championship in 44 years, drawing against Stoke and Sunderland and losing at Arsenal, seemingly giving the league away with five games to go before eventually securing it with two goals in stoppage time against QPR. That’s what made clashes so unpredictable in the past: the most mundane match against the most ordinary opponent could pose an insurmountable barrier when the potential consequences were so great.
It is part of the excellence of the city (de Despite 115 unresolved charges) that winning has become such a habit that they no longer seem to struggle with the same fears: while others struggle with doubt and fatigue, they just keep knocking opponents aside. But as a club they have known the fear of collapse.
There will probably never be a repeat of 1971-72, the greatest of all title races, when four different teams went into their final game with a chance to win the title, even though those games were spread over sixteen days. City, who were five points clear in March (in the days of two points for a win), have won just three of their last eight games, something that was down to the signing of Rodney Marsh, whose style many found disruptive. On 22 April they defeated their title rivals Derby, managed by Brian Clough, in their final match. Derby then defeated Liverpool in their final match on 1 May, but either Liverpool or Leeds would get the chance to conquer the league in their final matches, played on 8 May, two days after Leeds defeated Arsenal in the FA Cup final. However, Leeds lost at Wolves while Liverpool drew at Arsenal meaning Derby took the title by a point, learning of their triumph as they sat in a hotel lobby on a post-season trip to Mallorca while their assistant manager Peter Taylor listened to updates on the phone at reception.
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However, modern City can look to their six remaining games with a degree of confidence: away to Brighton and Nottingham Forest; home to wolves; away at Fulham and Tottenham; home of West Ham. All away games can be tricky, but that’s not as intimidating a clash as one of their rivals. Arsenal still have to go to Wolves, Tottenham and Manchester United, and have Chelsea, Bournemouth and Everton at home; Liverpool has away games at Fulham, Everton, West Ham and Villa and hosts Tottenham and Wolves. The biggest complication could be that City are still in the FA Cup final and have a better chance than any of their rivals to progress in Europe, but it could be that by the time they face what will be the biggest From their remaining tests it seems, at Spurs in the last week of the season they have clear water and the pressure is not so great.
City have not been as overwhelmingly brilliant this season as they were in the second half of last season, and yet they are still 17 games unbeaten in the league and some of the old rhythm has returned in recent weeks. They look ready to accelerate away from the field. The only hope for those craving drama is that if you were to write the finale as intriguingly as possible, this is exactly how you would write it.
This is an excerpt from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, the Guardian US’s weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Do you have a question for Jonathan? Email footballwithjw@theguardian.com and he will provide the best answer in a future edition