Alarm bells are ringing for the Albanian government as a new poll shows voters prefer the coalition to Labor, a sign that the government’s support measures to lower the cost of living may not be enough.
The Coalition has risen one percentage point in a month to take a 52 percent to 48 percent lead over Labor on a two-party preference basis, in the latest Freshwater Strategy poll conducted for the Australian Financial Overview.
This means a massive 4.1 point shift away from Labor since the May 2022 election, putting a minority coalition government at risk.
If the same thing were to happen at a federal election, the Coalition would get 75 seats, just one short of a majority, while Labor would fall from 78 to 65.
The Labor vote fell by two percentage points to 30 percent, down from 32.6 percent in the previous election, while the Coalition vote rose by one percentage point to 42 percent.
The Greens also rose by one point, 13 percent.
Anthony Albanese still holds a 45 percent to 41 percent lead over opposition leader Peter Dutton as prime minister, but his disapproval rating has risen four percentage points in a month to 49 percent and his approval rating has fallen one point to 34 percent.
This gives him a -15 approval rating, compared to Mr Dutton who scored -4 with an approval rating of 34. That’s a drop of 1 in a month, but his disapproval rating has risen by four to 34.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be concerned about the latest polls, which show his government’s chances of success are still declining
The biggest problem still plaguing the Labour government is the cost of living, which tops the list of the top three issues voters are concerned about, with 74 per cent of respondents citing it.
At this point, the coalition has doubled its lead to 14 points as the best party to tackle skyrocketing prices.
Housing and accommodation was the second most frequently mentioned issue of concern among voters, followed by health and social care, economic management, crime and social order. The environment and climate change were at the bottom of the list.
The Coalition’s strongest lead over Labor in perceived competence was in defence and national security (19), economic management (16), immigration and asylum (15), taxes and government expenditure (15), crime and social order (14) and cost of living (14).
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton (pictured left with his wife Kirilly Dutton) hopes to be in the box seat at the next federal election
Labor Minister Clare O’Neil said the government was focusing on the cost of living and affordable housing ahead of the federal election, which is due in late May.
She pointed to government tax cuts, a $300 energy bill rebate to help households pay their energy bills this year and cheaper medications.
“All of these things are very important and the coalition was almost completely against them,” Ms O’Neil told Nine’s Today show.
‘There is one party in Canberra that is desperately focused on easing the pressure on Australians, and that is Labor. And we will continue to do that right up until polling day.’
But independent senator Jacqui Lambie said the government was “mad” if it thought it would win a second term.
“Labor is a bit of a delusion, to be honest,” she told Nine.
“We’re about to celebrate Christmas, there’s an election next year, and then at Christmas you have all these credit card bills and everything people can afford to buy.
‘Then the children go back to school and we still don’t know what the interest rate will be.’
Senator Lambie also disputed the size of the energy bill reductions, saying total bills were not falling.
“I don’t think people are getting as much sugar from this as Labor thinks,” she said.
‘I would ask them to come out of their bubble, step outside their office and go outside with their boots on.
“They’re not doing it quite right and there’s not nearly enough help.”
Commenting on the poll results, Michael Turner, director of Freshwater Strategy, told the Australian Financial Review that the most likely outcome in the next poll would be a minority government for the Coalition or Labor Party.
“We are really in a limbo, and it is a question of who can form a government,” Dr. Turner said.
‘If an election were held today, no one can be certain that the Labour Party would have enough votes to form a minority government, let alone a majority government.’
The online poll among 1,057 voters was conducted from last Friday to Saturday.
While the Labor Party’s chances are far from lost at this stage, the polls are trending downward, raising the prospect of a one-term government.
A recent poll for newspapers such as News Ltd showed the Albanian government losing ground in the eastern states, where most of the electoral seats are located. In Queensland, Labor has fallen to 24 percent, in Victoria to 28 percent and in New South Wales to 32 percent.
On a two-party preference basis, Labor is defeated by the Coalition 57-43 in Queensland, trailing 52-48 in Victoria and tied 50-50 in NSW.