Emmanuel Macron is risking not only his own career, but the stability of all of Europe with this desperate roll of the dice. Faced with a strong rise of the far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen, he has called early elections.
His Renaissance party received less than half as many votes: 15 percent of the turnout in France, compared to Le Pen’s 32 percent.
That is an even bigger deficit than the Conservatives currently show in British opinion polls against Labour. Many pundits thought Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was reckless to the point of stupidity when he announced an election in July, rather than waiting until the autumn. Macron’s decision makes Sunak appear to be an example of caution.
Perhaps the French president is counting on repeating the shrewd success of his predecessor Francois Mitterand, who allowed the right-wing government of Jacques Chirac to take power at a crucial moment in the late 1980s. Chirac botched the job and Mitterrand was able to pose as the country’s savior when voters backed him in subsequent elections.
But many historians are likely to remember Edward Heath’s fateful challenge to the British electorate in 1974 when, as a miners’ strike plunged the country into darkness, he campaigned for re-election on the slogan: ‘Who governs Britain?’
Emmanuel Macron today announced his decision to dissolve the French parliament
Not you, the voters replied. Heide was driven away.
Now Macron asks the French: ‘What do you want – stability with me or chaos with Le Pen?’
But with Europe in its current feverish mood, the knee-jerk reaction from many French voters will be to embrace chaos. The support base for the technocratic Macronistas is evaporating as young people become increasingly polarized – drawn to the far right or far left.
The far left in France is led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, an unpredictable troublemaker. He could even reach out to Le Pen to deny Macron’s supporters any chance of a majority – so that he can steer the country towards socialism once the electorate becomes disillusioned with Le Pen.
The big difference with the French system is that even if his party is defeated in the elections, Macron will not be forced to resign as president. He will hold that office anyway, until 2027. But with Le Pen as prime minister, he would not so much be a lame duck, but rather a boiled goose.
A Le Pen regime would be highly hostile to France’s rapidly growing Muslim population, and a likely consequence could be an increase in terrorist attacks.
But the biggest impact could be the war in Ukraine.
Although Macron initially appeased Putin, he has become increasingly anti-Kremlin in the past six months, testing France’s weight with both his seat on the UN Security Council and his nuclear status.
Meanwhile, Le Pen has often expressed his admiration for Russia and its dictator, and is likely to withdraw support for President Zelensky in Kiev.
Combined with the strong possibility of a return of Donald Trump to the White House early next year, and the real winner of Macron’s extraordinary decision could be Russia.