This weekend, Republicans will gather at their party convention in Milwaukee, following two events that in another era would have been considered political earthquakes.
The first was the conviction of Donald Trump by a New York court on 34 counts of falsifying corporate records, meaning his party will formally nominate a criminal for the highest office in the land next week.
His sentencing, originally scheduled for Friday, has been delayed until September as justices consider the implications of a Supreme Court ruling that presidents cannot be prosecuted for official acts performed in office.
Then came Joe Biden’s halting performance during the first live televised debate between the two, leaving Americans to wonder whether their commander in chief was up to the job now, let alone his expected capabilities four years from now.
NATO’s Thursday night press conference, in which he introduced Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” and called his own deputy “Vice President Trump,” did little to assuage their doubts. The series of events encapsulates the big question facing voters in November: the fitness of the two candidates for office, whether morally or literally.
More voters believe Donald Trump’s convictions will help rather than hinder his chances of being elected in November
Many see the charges against Trump as a political exercise rather than a legal one, part of a long campaign to discredit the former president dating back to 2016.
Perhaps even more remarkable than the two major stories themselves is that neither made a significant dent in the polls.
My three surveys, conducted before and after the verdicts, and again after the TV debate, found that Trump’s position has actually strengthened somewhat since the conclusion of his case. But neither event has resulted in a move outside the margin of error.
Nearly half of Trump voters in 2020 say his beliefs make them more are likely to vote for him in November, and more voters now believe the lawsuit against him will boost his chances rather than hurt them.
Non-Americans wonder: How can a candidate convicted of fraud make no difference to his position? There are several answers.
One is that many see the charges against Trump as a political exercise rather than a legal one, part of a long campaign to discredit the former president dating back to 2016. Another is that people admire his tenacity and his continued ability to overcome adversity, even if he caused some of it himself.
But above all, as always, they weigh it against everything else and decide that other things are more important — especially a struggling economy, worrying foreign commitments and memories of better times under President Trump.
As one woman in Pennsylvania told us, “I’m not a fan of his behavior and a lot of the horrible things he’s done. But from a business perspective, he’s doing a fantastic job. He said things that people didn’t want to hear, but it was the truth and people needed to hear it.”
For much of his presidency, Biden’s re-election campaign was a race against time.
The worse the economy feels, the more voters will be willing to ignore Trump’s obvious shortcomings and get him back in the White House. The stronger the economic recovery, the less they will want to watch the 4 a.m. tweets and other daily aspects of the Donald Trump show.
As my poll showed, the country is divided over what is more important: Biden’s physical and mental capacity or Trump’s character and judgment. From Biden’s perspective, that means the economy has to work harder to compensate.
America is divided over what is more important: Biden’s physical and mental capabilities or Trump’s character and judgment, writes LORD ASHCROFT
Only a quarter of voters, including just one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better than they did four years ago
But despite improving indicators like lower inflation and a rising stock market, few Americans feel better off. Part of the Democrats’ problem is that people are comparing their current circumstances to how things were before Covid, which also happened to be before Biden.
That may be unfair, but politics is a little like that — and only a quarter of voters, including just one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better than they did four years ago.
Americans are confronted with two devils they know all too well
At the same time, the new emphasis on Biden’s health as a campaign issue effectively neutralizes Trump’s disadvantages.
The logical step would be to pass the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris, but it’s clear that this would put Democrats in an even tighter position. They fear they can’t win with Harris in the lead, and for good reason: Her approval ratings are no better than the president’s.
But they can’t open the race to other potential nominees without seeming disrespectful to a woman of color and without causing the biggest uproar within the American left (which no one would be happy about, just like Trump).
Some are beginning to realize that they can preserve the fragile unity of the Democratic Party, or they can keep the White House, but they may not be able to do both.
Trump’s support appears resilient. Americans say he would do better than Biden on four of the five biggest issues — the cost of living, the economy and jobs, immigration and crime — and that, for now at least, he is doing better among younger and minority voters than recent Republicans ever dreamed.
It is older voters who are most supportive of Biden on issues like Medicare and Social Security, and who are also more sympathetic to his age-related controversies.
As party loyalty declines, people increasingly seek out the candidate they think best suits them, no matter how shocked their grandparents were by their choice.
Meanwhile, it’s mostly older voters who are supporting Biden — because they have more confidence that he will protect Medicare and Social Security, because they have a certain idea of how a president should behave, or because they have a secret sympathy for him because of his age-related controversies.
One of the ways this election is unusual is that it doesn’t come down to “change” versus “the devil you know.” Instead, Americans are confronted with two devils they know all too well.
In 2020, they voted to replace chaos and division with what they hoped would be a semblance of moderation and calm. Four years later, many say life doesn’t feel any better and they have a president with his own very obvious flaws.
The race is still four months away, and it feels like there’s room for at least one more dramatic chapter in this story. We don’t know how the lawsuits will be resolved or how the Democrats’ internal drama will play out. But my poll did find one thing that changed after the now-infamous debate: More Americans became convinced that Trump would win.
Lord Ashcroft is an international businessman, author, philanthropist and pollster. His research has been published LordAshcroftPeals.com. Follow him on X/Facebook @LordAshcroft