LORD ASHCROFT: My tour of the swing states that reveals where the election will be won and lost

Four more days to go in America and we are ready for the closing arguments. Donald Trump’s message is: ‘Kamala broke it; I’ll fix it’. But true to form, that’s being overshadowed by the huge row over a joke about Puerto Rico — risque or outrageous, depending on how you see things — made by a comedian during his weekend rally at Madison Square Garden.

The question is how many people still on the Trump train will have to jump off because of the latest in a long line of such incidents. But with things as tight as they are, any distraction is unwanted. This will also be the view in Kamala’s headquarters after President Biden responded to the rally by calling Trump supporters “trash.” The White House insists he was talking about the comedian, not the voters, but the words are there.

This, in turn, overshadows Harris’ own final pitch, made at the site where the former president spoke before the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021: Don’t return to Trump’s chaos. Her negative final focus is a stark reversal of the atmosphere of hope and “joy” of her early campaign. (In fact, there was a sometimes contradictory mix of the two approaches. On Sunday, she told a church in Philadelphia that she was “determined to turn the page on hate and division” — a few days after using a CNN interview to label her opponent as ‘a fascist’).

It’s frustrating for some voters, who still have only a vague idea of ​​what she stands for. “They asked her a question on Fox News about the border and she said, ‘Wait, let’s talk about what Trump did.’ It’s like, ‘No, tell us what you’re going to do,'” one irritated voter told us in Charlotte, North Carolina, during our latest round of swing-state focus groups.

Donald Trump’s closing arguments during his campaign centered around the message “Kamala broke it; I’ll fix it’. Pictured: in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on October 31

Lord Ashcroft writes that from his conversations with voters in key swing states, many potential voters “identify with the entrepreneurship and ambition that Trump embodies.”

Opinions differ on whether Harris is keeping things vague to keep her electoral tent as broad as possible, or because there are few concrete plans to be specific about.

Another explanation for her focus on the Trump specter is that Democrats are concerned about growing their base, not least the minority voters who traditionally form the base of the party’s support.

Barack Obama’s recent call for black men to vote for Harris – in which he controversially suggested that they “just don’t like the idea of ​​having a woman as president” – adds strength to this theory, as does the call from Michelle Obama to men to support their political preferences. women by voting for her.

But it’s clear from our conversations that there are many reasons why Trump has stronger minority voting power than any Republican since Nixon. One of these is that party loyalty is becoming looser.

“The Democrats expect us to vote for them,” an African-American man told us in Atlanta, Georgia. “They don’t really listen to what black people say and what we ultimately want. It’s about my safety and my money. Border control, wars we are in. My dollar doesn’t go as far as it did four years ago.”

Many also identify with the entrepreneurship and ambition that Trump embodies: “Black and brown men are investors now more than ever, they are entrepreneurs,” another added. “They want their money, just like everyone else.”

If they have reservations — including the racial climate of a new Trump term and the suggestion that he will give police officers immunity from prosecution — many find enough to turn them away from Democrats, including their record on border control and position on transgender rights.

There are also concerns about Harris himself. “She’s playing identity politics,” said another man in Atlanta. “When it’s important to get the black vote, she tries to outshine her blackness and pretend she knows what the black experience is.”

Some voters who have spoken to Lord Ashcroft in key swing states believe Kamala Harris is leaning too heavily on ‘identity politics’. Pictured: in Phoenix, Arizona, on October 31

Some were also unimpressed by the celebrities she was on stage with. Pictured: Megan Thee Stallion performs at VP Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign rally in Atlanta in a manner called ‘unstylish’

Some believe that as a woman of Jamaican and Indian descent, she exaggerates her black identity. A conversation about cooking tips with a chef in Savannah, Georgia, was a particularly egregious example for many. She claimed she washed her kale – a cabbage-like vegetable that is a staple of Southern cooking – in her bathtub. “No black person puts green in the bathtub,” replied an incredulous man in Charlotte. ‘That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. Saying things that are so bizarre to connect with black people is so pandering.”

Some were also unimpressed by the celebrities she was on stage with. ‘Was that supposed to be empowering?’ asked a woman with the appearance of Harris and Megan Thee Stallion, an American rapper whose exuberant twerking at a Democrat rally in Atlanta raised eyebrows. “It just wasn’t stylish.” Her record as a prosecutor in California is also troubling. “She has persecuted many African-American men more harshly than others,” one voter claims. “She wasn’t in favor of the black man, but now she needs the vote: ‘I’m going to help you.'”

With polls in decisive states still suggesting the race is too close, everything hinges on convincing such skeptical Americans to vote. Those who haven’t yet, that is. 57 million Americans have already cast their votes. The question is: who will be the first to run out of voters?

This is where money can really talk. It’s expensive to vote, and Democrats have raised more than $1 billion — nearly three times as much as their opponents. Philadelphia, Detroit and other major cities in the swing states are decorated with Harris posters and teeming with activists.

Trump’s team points out that his poll numbers are better than at this stage in previous elections. However, he does best among those who are less interested in the election and less certain that it will affect them. If they all show up, they might be able to put him back in the White House, but the Harris machine is formidable. Tuesday’s result will come down to one thing: which side wants it more.

• Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is up LordAshcroftPolls.com.