TEHRAN, Iran — The US presidential elections next week come just after Iran celebrates the 45th anniversary of the presidential elections the 1979 US Embassy hostage crisis – and for many, tensions between Tehran and Washington feel as high as they did then.
Iran remains locked down the wars in the Middle East that are roiling the regionwith its allies – militant groups and fighters from its self-proclaimed ‘Axis of Resistance’ – battered as Israel presses its war in the Gaza Strip against Hamas and its invasion of Lebanon amid devastating attacks on Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran appears to still be assessing the damage Israel’s attacks on the Islamic Republic last Saturday in response to two Iranian ballistic missile attacks.
Iran’s currency, the rial, is hovering near all-time lows against the dollar, hit by international sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear program. enriching uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels.
In public spaces, women still openly defy Iran’s mandatory headscarf or hijab law, a result of the mass demonstrations over the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 that still haunts the country.
That has led to a sense of fatalism among some on the streets of the capital Tehran, as Americans cast their votes for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Many are divided over which candidate would be better for their country – if at all.
“All American presidents elected after the 1979 revolution had the same views on Iran and I think this is unlikely to change,” said 65-year-old Sadegh Rabbani.
Both candidates have adopted or expressed tough positions on Iran.
In 2018, Trump pulled unilaterally America is withdrawing from Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powerssetting off years of attacks in the Middle East even before Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. Trump has been briefed on Iranian plots to take revenge on him, as well as his decision to… 2020 drone strike that killed Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimaniin Baghdad.
Harris, meanwhile, vowed during the presidential debate in September that she would always give Israel the ability to defend itself, especially when it comes to Iran and any threat Iran and its allies pose to Israel.
For its part, the Biden administration has attempted indirect negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, which have yielded no tangible results, although they have a prisoner exchange deal that saw five Americans held for years to walk freely in Iran in September 2023.
At an open-air coffee shop in central Tehran popular among youth, 22-year-old Zahra Rezaei said she preferred a Harris win.
“We’ve seen Trump in the past and he just had an anti-Iran policy,” Rezaei told The Associated Press. “It’s time for a woman… I think she (Harris) will be better since she’s not after the war.”
Ebrahim Shiri, a 28-year-old postgraduate student in political science, agreed.
“I think Harris knows the world better,” he said. “She and (Joe) Biden convinced Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. This represents a step towards peace.”
Others believe that Trump, with his promises to make deals, may be a better fit.
“I don’t know what the American people think, but Trump manages to quickly make a deal with Iran,” said Mohammad Ali Raoufi, 43, who runs a double-glazing workshop. “The Biden administration, including Harris, has failed to reach a deal with Iran in recent years while in power.”
Reza Ghaemi, a 31-year-old taxi driver, also suggested that Trump could ease tensions in the region since he pushed for the withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East during his time in office.
Many declined to talk to the AP on camera — Iran has only state television and radio stations, so people are suspicious of reporters with video cameras working openly on the streets. A woman walking past immediately tightened her previously loose headscarf after seeing the camera.
Those who did speak to the AP mainly expressed concerns about direct war between the United States and Iran — especially if Trump wins.
Saying he wants Trump to win “for my own reasons,” 53-year-old Ahmad Moradi claimed this would make a war between the US and Iran “100%” certain.
A woman who gave only her name as Mahnaz, fearing repercussions if she spoke openly, suggested that Harris as a woman could not make deals with Iran because “men can talk to men.”
“I think if Trump is elected, it will be much harder for our children. Of course, it doesn’t matter which one is chosen, it is already difficult for us,” said Fariba Oodi.
“We, the Iranian people, are caught in a political game. And our children are paying a price for that,” she added. “But I still think that if it is Trump, it will be more difficult, especially for my son, who is in college and plans to apply” to study in America.
that of Iran The reformist President Masoud Pezeshkianchosen after a helicopter crash President Ebrahim Raisi’s hard line came to power in May after promising to reach a deal to ease Western sanctions.
Iranian officials claim it is possible to separate nuclear negotiations from wars in the Middle East The US has accused Iran of meddling in the November electionswhich Tehran denies.
Fatemeh Mohajerani, a spokeswoman for Pezeshkian’s government, said Tehran wants to see a change in U.S. policy and respect for the “national sovereignty of other countries.” It also wants Washington to “avoid tension-causing activities as we have seen in recent years,” she said.
However, analysts see a difficult path ahead for any talks between the US and Iran, regardless of who wins next Tuesday.
“The talks will be a war of attrition,” Ali Soufi told the reformist Shargh newspaper. Saeed Nourmohammadi, another analyst, suggested such talks are “unlikely to be fruitful.”
But ultimately every decision rests with Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“You know, Khamenei has seen eight American presidents come and go,” said Abbas Ghasemi, a 67-year-old retired teacher. “He knows how to handle the next guy.”
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Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.