LIZZIE KELLY: What you need to be a Grand National winner – form, low weight and stamina

Bookmakers expect more than £150 million to be wagered on the Grand National, which takes place over 30 fences and four and a quarter miles.

Rachael Blackmore’s horse Ain’t That A Shame is one of the favorites for Saturday’s race at Aintree.

Last year’s winner Noble Yeats, second place Any Second Now and third place Delta Work are among the 40 entrants.

After the showers on Friday, a mostly sunny day is predicted, with a good to mild course.

Here, Grade One winning jockey LIZZIE KELLY reveals what it takes to become a Grand National winner.

JUMPING POWER

Not as important as before they changed the fences. While the course is challenging, it is not the same test as it used to be.

You want a solid jumper, of course, but you can also see runners, who haven’t been the most fluent on the type of fences they normally jump over, actually getting better at Aintree’s unique obstacles. The fences make them think and sharpen their ideas.

It is important to have a horse that responds to a jockey’s commands. If they are stubborn, that can be quite difficult from a rider’s perspective.

RESISTANCE

Davy Russell celebrates as he rides Tiger Roll to victory in 2019

Proven ability to stay is very important. Changes to the qualifying rules mean that only horses that have proven themselves over long distances can run, but this is the most acute test of endurance most competitors have ever faced.

The runners tend to go fast in the first half mile as the field finds the position in the race they are happy with. The pace then drops towards the end of the first circuit as some water is thrown on the fire.

But the race changes quickly as the runners move onto the second track and the pace picks up again. From there it’s survival of the fittest.

As the runners cross the Melling Road on the second track, it looks like the race is entering its closing stages, but there are still two more fences to jump and it’s still a long way to the finish.

FORM IN IMPORTANT TRIALS

Races such as the 3m 6f National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and the Cross Country Chase at that meeting have good records of producing first class Grand National contenders.

The National Hunt Chase clearly shows that a runner has good stamina, while the Cross Country Chase is a long race with a lot of jumping, which again tests how well a horse stays.

The Cross Country Chase, a race Tiger Roll won prior to his Grand National victories in 2018 and 2019, also favors an agile jumper who is smart in the way he tackles obstacles. That’s a great attribute going into the National.

PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE

Not always important. Many runners arrive at Aintree for the first time and run well without having ridden the course before. Such was the case with last year’s winner, Noble Yeats.

The old Grand National may have been a culture shock for some horses, but that generally doesn’t apply today.

LOW WEIGHT

Runners 10th carrying 12 pounds or less have the best record. Obviously, in a four-mile race, carrying more weight becomes even more important. In those last few stadia, those few extra pounds can act as an anchor and nullify any class difference between rivals.

Rachael Blackmore jumps a jump as she rides to victory at Minella Times at Aintree in 2021

THE VERDICT

GALVIN looks really solid. He is good enough to compete in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (fourth last year) and he won the National Hunt Chase at the 2021 festival.

He comes into the race after finishing second at DELTA WORK last month in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham.

That adversary seems to be one of the greatest dangers. He has won Cheltenham’s Cross County Chase for the past two years and was third in the Grand National last year.