Lionel Messi’s shock playoff defeat was great for drama but a problem for MLS

EEveryone loves an underdog story, even though an iPad may have been angrily thrown across the room in the Garber household when Atlanta United shocked Inter Miami on Saturday night. Tim Cook is said to have reacted in a similar way after posting how “excited” he was to see Lionel Messi and Co in the MLS play-offs. This year he will no longer look at him.

These were Messi’s play-offs. The league’s entire postseason marketing focused on the GOAT, anticipating a predicted march to glory in the MLS Cup after Miami set a regular-season points record. Messi was everywhere: on billboards, in social media promos and TV ads. They even broadcast Inter Miami’s first playoff game in Times Square. MLS had been building towards this moment since Messi arrived in Florida.

However, these best-laid plans did not prevent Atlanta United from pulling off the biggest upset in the league’s history. The regular season difference of 34 points between Inter Miami (74) and The Five Stripes (40) was the largest difference between two teams to ever face each other in the playoffs. While Tata Martino’s team won the Supports’ Shield, Atlanta United snuck into the postseason on Decision Day.

On the field the difference was a Bartosz Slisz winner fourteen minutes from the end of a tense, bad-tempered affair in an unpredictable three-match series that saw Atlanta win two games to one. From Xande Silva’s stoppage-time winner at a sold-out Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Game 2 to Brad Guzan being pushed into the net after Messi’s equalizer to make it 2-2 in Game 3, this was MLS at its messy, chaotic best. Although the competition itself may not see it that way.

Messi’s absence for the remainder of the playoffs will undeniably hurt MLS. Apple continues to keep the exact viewership figures for matches on the MLS Season Pass to itself, but the Argentinian’s debut for Inter Miami last year attracted more than 100,000 new subscribers – the biggest single-day increase for the streaming service since it launched at the start of the season 2023.

By the end of last season, MLS Season Pass surpassed two million subscribers, a milestone directly attributed to Messi’s rise. “The Messi effect is real!” said Inter Miami co-owner Jorge Mas, also highlighting how registrations had “more than doubled” since the World Cup winner’s arrival. Cook said the service “exceeded our expectations in terms of subscribers.”

However, how many of those subscribers will tune in to watch Orlando City vs. Atlanta United in the Eastern Conference semifinals? Will they continue to watch Los Angeles FC take on the Seattle Sounders? Or the LA Galaxy against Minnesota United? A Hudson River Derby between New York City FC and the New York Red Bulls has broad appeal, but not in the same way as Messi matches.

This is a preview of the problem MLS could face if Messi leaves, which could be at the end of next season when his contract expires. The estimated investment of between $50 and $60 million in the former Barcelona star will only pay off if the league uses it as a catalyst to build something more permanent. The Messi era in MLS will be a failure as new supporters disperse with Inter Miami out of the playoffs.

In a way, this could be a positive turning point, and not just because Atlanta United’s win proves there’s more to MLS than just Messi and company. It could crystallize what needs to be done to build on the platform Messi has given to the league. That can involve some big decisions about format, scheduling, scheduling rules and more.

“We were the most consistent team, we broke the points record, we had a good season, but what we wanted was to win these play-offs… I think this format is a bit unfair,” Jordi Alba said after the loss from Saturday. Sour grapes perhaps, but the left back’s comments also touched on a discussion that has the potential to reshape MLS.

The playoffs may be incompatible with what MLS wants from the Messi era. If the league wants to put its best players and teams on a pedestal, the current model is probably not the best way to do that. Next year’s Club World Cup will give Inter Miami the chance to capture the attention of fans around the world, but only because Gianni Infantino engineered their qualification.

To take the next step, MLS appears prepared to make some major changes, as evidenced by the reportedly consideration of a change to its European-style winter schedule for the 2026 season. But before it can do that, it must the league decides what it wants to be. Is it enough to be the Messi League?

Is MLS happy to see its regular-season champions – and best team – ousted early in the playoffs by an opponent with an interim manager and a 40-year-old goalkeeper? Is she satisfied with the growing contradiction between the Supporters’ Shield and the MLS Cup? Atlanta United’s win may have showcased the best of the league, but is this what MLS wants to showcase as the best of MLS?

The Premier League leveraged its competitiveness to position itself as the best league in the world, focusing on the product as a whole and not on any one player or team. However, MLS has taken a different approach and is so closely intertwined with Messi and Inter Miami that Saturday’s shock result must be viewed through a different prism.

None of this should diminish the spectacle of what happened at Chase Stadium on Saturday. Atlanta’s win will go down as the defining moment of the 2024 MLS season and reflect how Messi became the league’s heel as everyone tried to take him and Inter Miami down. For MLS, however, this underdog story could have some spice.