SHAWNEE, Kan. — After introducing herself at the front door, Vanessa Vaughn West began her pitch to voters with a question: What issues are important to you? She heard frustration about rising local property taxes, a desire for smaller government and questions about affordable housing.
West is a Democrat running for a second time for a Kansas House seat representing a western Kansas City district where Republicans have held sway since housing construction began in the late 1990s.
Despite that history, West’s race against Republican state Rep. Angela Stiens is on the radar of the national Democratic Party, as is the Kansas Legislature. Democrats need just two seats in the 125-member House of Representatives or three seats in the 40-member Senate to break a supermajority that has allowed Republicans to override House vetoes. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. restricting abortion providers And transgender rights.
A similar battle is playing out in North Carolina, where throwing away one seat in the House of Representatives or Senate could cost Republicans a veto-proof majority that has repeatedly imposed its will over the objections of a Democratic governor. In Nevada, meanwhile, it is the Democrats who can gain a veto-proof majority over a Republican governor, if they can win just one more seat in the Senate without losing one in the Assembly.
More than 5,800 nationally state legislative seats 44 states are having higher profile elections this year contests for the presidencyCongress and Governor. Groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans are expected to pour several hundred million dollars into state legislative battles, focusing most intensely on states where control of a chamber is at stake: Arizona, Michigan , Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But they also pay attention to a number of states where there is little doubt about which party will prevail, because the stakes are still high.
The Associated Press identified fourteen states where a swing of just three or fewer seats could determine whether one party has a supermajorityThat means a margin so dominant that a party can enact laws over a governor’s veto, call special sessions or place constitutional amendments on the ballot without needing any support from lawmakers of an opposing party.
“Having a party in power is very important — the most important thing,” said Wesley Hussey, a professor of political science at California State University, Sacramento. But “having a supermajority can give you additional tools to implement policy.”
In Kansas, Stiens was appointed to fill a vacancy in the House of Representatives this spring in time to help override Kelly’s veto of a bill requiring abortion providers to ask patients why they want to terminate their pregnancy and submit that data to the state health department. The law is not being enforced amid legal challenges.
But West said that of the Legislature constant pressure for restrictions on abortion providers is one of the reasons she is running against Stiens, just two years after narrowly losing to Stiens’ predecessor. West is a strong supporter of abortion rights, and residents of her Johnson County home voted in favor of abortion rights by nearly 69% in the election a decisive statewide vote in 2022.
“This is why we need equality, right?” West said as she walked from house to house talking to potential voters. “And this is why we need support for what I would call the voice of the people – making sure that when the people vote on those things, we as legislators reinforce those sentiments with our votes.”
While still Republican and largely white, Kansas City’s suburbs have become more racially diverse and friendly to Democrats since former President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. But national Democrats are also targeting part of southwest Topeka , a longtime Republican area where Republican state Rep. Jesse Borjon is seeking a third term against Democrat Jacquie Lightcap, a member of the local school board.
Borjon recently campaigned door-to-door in a neighborhood of late-1980s homes and three-car garages. He emphasized his support for public schools and tax cuts passed this year. His vote for eliminating the state income tax on Social Security benefits resonated with Bob Schmidt, a retired computer company executive who chatted with Borjon about rising property taxes.
Regardless of party label, Schmidt said he wants a representative who “upholds conservative values.”
North Carolina provides a clear example of how legislative supermajorities can influence laws.
Then North Carolina state Rep. Tricia Cotham After switching from the Democratic to the Republican party in 2023, it gave Republicans the final seat they needed to gain a veto-proof majority in both legislative chambers. Republicans quickly used their new powers to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto legislation banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy.
Republicans have since passed two dozen additional bills overriding Cooper’s vetoes, including bills weakening the governor’s vetoes. supervision of electionslimiting medical treatments and sporting activities transgender youth and limiting school lessons about gender identity in the early grades.
“Republicans have easily overridden his vetoes and essentially put their stamp on the state when it comes to public policy,” said Michael Bitzer, a professor of political science at Catawba College in Salisbury, North Carolina.
Although Cooper is term-limited, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is leading the race to replace him. That makes it crucial for Republicans to maintain a supermajority, “otherwise they’ll have to deal with the governor,” Bitzer said.
The number of states with supermajority legislatures is at the highest level since at least 1982, according to research by Saint Louis University political scientist Steven Rogers. The Democrats have nine veto-free majorities. But Republicans have 20, including in Nebraska, where the unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan but two-thirds of members identify as Republicans.
Democrats need a gain of three or fewer seats this election to break Republican supermajorities in Florida, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and North Carolina, while a similar swing for Republicans could end Democratic supermajorities in Delaware and New York.
Meanwhile, a gain of three or fewer seats could create new supermajorities for Republicans in Iowa and South Carolina and for Democrats in Colorado, Connecticut, Nevada and New Mexico.
But obtaining a supermajority does not guarantee that legislative leaders will always get their way.
The Democrats dominate in California. Still democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed it Numerous bills have been introduced, none of which have been overridden by the Democratic legislative supermajority. The legislature has also sometimes failed to achieve the two-thirds majority needed to pass tax increases.
In Missouri, where Republicans have a supermajority, conservative Senate faction has clashed repeatedly with the leadership of the Republican Party. Ultimately, Republicans, mired in tensions, failed to pass some of their own priority measures.
“Having a veto-proof majority can matter,” said Ben Williams, deputy director of elections and redistricting at the National Conference of State Legislatures. But “the bigger a legislative majority becomes, the more factions you get within that majority, and sometimes they don’t necessarily agree.”
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Lieb reported from Jefferson City, Missouri.