Leaked documents suggest US knows more about Putin’s war operations than Zelensky’s
A vast trove of leaked Pentagon documents suggests the US knows far more about Russia’s war campaign than Ukraine’s — despite funding the latter to the tune of $200 billion.
The documents, leaked online in recent days, portray the Russian military as struggling in their war with Ukraine, which has left hundreds of thousands dead.
Intelligence agencies are believed to have fully infiltrated the Russian military and leading intelligence agencies, giving them considerable knowledge of upcoming maneuvers, as well as insight into how badly Putin’s war is going.
But the same cannot be said of Ukraine New York Times. The newspaper reported that “the United States has a better understanding of Russian military operations than of Ukrainian planning.”
US officials allegedly spied on Ukraine themselves to get a sense of their military plans.
America also remains uncertain about the total number of Ukrainian casualties – the documents only state that Zelensky’s forces suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties and 17,500 dead.
Even then, intelligence officials say confidence in the accuracy of those numbers is low.
And it’s also unclear whether US intelligence gathering helped Ukraine after it flagged the Kremlin’s plans to bomb a drone depot in Odessa days before the attack finally happened.
Leaked documents show US knows more about Putin’s war operations than Zelensky’s, raising questions about $200 billion in military aid sent to Ukraine
The United States has spent most of its considerable espionage resources on hindering Putin’s efforts and helping Ukraine.
But his spies have also eavesdropped on allies, including Ukraine itself, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Israel.
The Times reported that Ukraine is being spied on in hopes of getting a clearer picture of its military strategies, to try to maximize its army’s effectiveness against Putin.
That comes despite the US spending $200 billion on advanced military hardware and spy equipment for Ukraine, crediting the money for helping the country hold back the Russian advance for much longer than anyone thought necessary.
And while funding support for Ukraine continues to gain bipartisan support, news that U.S. officials often remain in the dark may raise questions about the massive amount of resources the White House continues to send to Eastern Europe.
The Russian flagship Moskva was blown up by Ukrainian missiles last April and sank in the Black Sea, killing hundreds of soldiers. It was seen as a massive coup for Ukraine, whose armed forces have received a steady stream of accurate information about Russia that has proved devastating to Putin’s war effort.
The documents provide detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies have been most compromised, and clues as to how the US obtained so much information about the Kremlin.
The 100 pages of documents, at least some of which are believed to be accurate, were leaked on a Discord server earlier this year.
They have created a panic at the Pentagon and made a huge effort to find out where the leak is coming from.
Ukraine has suggested they are not real, but Pentagon officials are said to be treating them as real, exposing a new schism between the US and its precious ally.
They also seem to show that the intelligence community has been compromised, as some reports include daily real-time alerts about the timing and targets of Moscow’s attacks – which has allowed the US to warn its Ukrainian counterparts.
The documents — though up to several months old — offer detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies have been compromised the most, and clues to how the United States gathered so much classified information about the Kremlin.
US intelligence on Russia was said to have been so good that Ukraine was given two days’ notice of an attack on a drone depot. American spies are also said to have deeply infiltrated Russia’s GRU intelligence agency – the successor to the KGB – and discovered just how badly Putin’s war effort is going.
While US officials have previously estimated Russian losses at around 200,000 soldiers, one report puts casualties at 189,500 to 223,000, including up to 43,000 killed in action.
Losses are believed to be lower in Ukraine, though US officials are reluctant to commit to a firm figure.
Pentagon officials would launch a massive investigation into the leak. The leaked documents being shared online – at least some of which are believed to be real – consist of photos of printed sheets of paper.
Classified documents can normally only be printed using a secure process, which can make it easier for officials to find the source of the leak.
Despite the Biden administration pouring nearly $200 billion into the Ukrainian military, the leak revealed that supplies are severely depleted and it is low on air defense munitions.
The documents, posted on sites like Twitter, have been labeled classified and resemble routine updates that the Joint Staff of the US Army would produce on a daily basis but would not publicly distribute.
They remain online, with Twitter owner Elon Musk saying there’s little point in banning information that’s already widely circulated and easy to find elsewhere, even if its moderators delete it.
Dated from February 23 to March 1, they provide what appear to be details of the progress of arms and equipment entering Ukraine with more precise timelines and amounts than the US generally disclose.
They are not war plans and they give no details of a planned offensive in Ukraine. And some of the inaccuracies — including estimates of Russian troop deaths significantly lower than figures publicly stated by U.S. officials — have led some to question the authenticity of the documents.
Certainties about the validity of the US military’s espionage apparatus will be further shattered by revelations that America’s focus extends far beyond its Russian enemies.
Allied countries, such as South Korea, have also reportedly been the subject of Pentagon spying, raising questions about the diplomatic impact the leak could have at a time of deteriorating global ties.
The documents, posted on social media sites including Twitter, Discord and Telegram, have also highlighted the devastating impact the war in Ukraine has had on both sides of the conflict.
Despite the Biden administration pouring nearly $200 billion into the Ukrainian military, the leak revealed that supplies are severely depleted and it is low on air defense munitions.
But with Russian forces also struggling, reports point to renewed support from Western troops in the coming months.
One of the leaks, reportedly posted on Telegram, details “a secret plan to prepare and equip nine brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the US and NATO for the spring offensive.”
The Biden administration has not denied the legitimacy of the leak, but it did claim that certain documents had been tampered with.
An FBI investigation was launched on Friday to identify the source of the leak, but a senior official told The New York Times that tracking down the perpetrator could be difficult because a large number of officials have the necessary security clearances to access the information.