Kamala Harris opens up second path to victory and could win White House by securing either the Rust Belt OR the Sun Belt – while Donald Trump would need BOTH, new polling shows
- Another poll shows a marginal shift among older voters from Trump to Harris
Kamala Harris has two possible paths to the White House compared to Donald Trump. If the election were held today, she would be favored to win, new polls show.
A win in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania or the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina would secure her the presidency, while Trump would need to win in both regions.
The forecast is based on the Washington Post polling average, which shows the race has effectively flipped since Joe Biden was replaced by his vice president on the Democratic ticket.
Compared to July 21, the day President Biden withdrew from the race, Harris is up two percentage points nationally, meaning she is currently ahead of her Republican rival.
Another recent poll from Outward Intelligence shows her ahead even further nationally, with a hypothetical two-way split that would put her ahead of former President Trump by six percentage points.
Kamala Harris has two possible paths to the White House, according to a Washington Post poll
Trump has been furious since Biden withdrew from the presidential race and passed the torch to Harris on July 21
According to a separate analysis, the move toward Harris could be attributed to a clear shift among older voters from their traditional loyalties to the Republican Party.
According to Emerson College Polling, younger voters have moved more toward Harris since Biden stepped back, with those under 30 moving nine points toward her.
But perhaps even more surprising is that older voters over 70 are choosing Harris over Trump by 51 percent to 48 percent, according to the poll released on Thursday.
Despite the positive numbers for Harris’ campaign ahead of next week’s Democratic National Convention, all eyes are on predictions for the all-important Electoral College.
According to the Washington Post’s models, Harris would still be behind Trump in the electoral vote count if the election were held today and all states voted as the current polling average indicates.
However, the newspaper’s polls also show that Harris is more competitive in more states, and that he could thus win 270 votes – the number of votes needed to win the Electoral College.
The vice president is enthusiastic about the growing enthusiasm, which is being bolstered by new government figures this week showing that inflation is falling.
More Americans trust Harris than her Republican rival Donald Trump when it comes to the economy, according to a new University of Michigan poll, marking the first time this campaign that the former president has trailed on this issue.
Trump has been furious since Biden dropped out of the presidential race and passed the torch to Harris. Republicans are pleading with the former president to focus on policy and stop his personal attacks on his new opponent.
But Trump couldn’t keep his message going. He complained about the large crowds Harris visited, attacked her mixed race and called the former California attorney general stupid.
Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Asheville, NC on August 14, 2024
Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group from July 26 to August 2
In a lengthy speech in North Carolina that focused on his own economic message, Trump lavished attention on personal insults, even saying he was “not sure” the economy was the “most important issue” in the election.
As Trump and Harris visit the crucial swing state this week, a new poll shows the Democratic candidate ahead in what has been an extremely close race so far.
This appears to be the first poll to give the vice president a narrow lead in a state that the Republican ex-president won in both 2016 and 2020.
A poll by the Cook Political Report found the candidates are statistically tied with Harris (48 percent) and Trump (47 percent) among likely voters in the Tar Heel State with less than three months to go until the election.
Other recent polls in North Carolina have shown Trump leading in the state, but several polls now show Harris gaining ground in swing states as well.