Kamala Harris may become the first Democratic presidential candidate to win a surprise voter group since Al Gore more than twenty years ago.
A recent national poll released last week by CNN/SSRS found Harris leading the former president 50 to 46 percent among U.S. seniors — with Harris leading Trump among seniors by three points in the average poll.
These statistics represent a major breakthrough for Harris, who has surpassed Trump’s lead among older voters.
It shows a stark reversal since Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race in July and from the final estimates in 2020, which showed Biden with 47 percent of the vote among those over 65, and Trump with more than half at 52 percent.
But it’s no surprise that Harris is doing significantly better with older voters than previous Democrats, as Biden performed better with seniors in 2020 than Barack Obama did in 2012.
US Vice President Kamala Harris could be the first Democratic candidate to win senior voters since Al Gore in 2000
Final estimates in 2020 showed Biden with 47 percent of the vote among those over 65, and Trump with more than half at 52 percent.
Al Gore was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the seniors more than twenty years ago
While Harris appears to have captured the most important group of senior voters, she still appears to be struggling to win over younger voters, the polling data shows.
However, polls from four years ago showed that Biden was also doing better than the average Democrat among younger voters — a sharp difference from what the data shows now.
However, the trade-off between younger voters and older voters may not be negative for the presidential candidate, as there are significantly more seniors than adults over the age of 30 in America.
According to recent polling data from a New York Times/Siena College poll last month, 67 percent of voters 65 and older also said they would “almost certainly” vote.
The over-65 category includes baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, and the Silent Generation, anyone born between 1925 and 1945.
In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 19 percentage points among the Silent Generation – but Trump won the same group by 16 percentage points over Biden in 2020.
The senior voting bloc will be crucial to watch in key swing states, including Pennsylvania and Arizona, with 19 percent of Pennsylvania voters aged 65 and older, and 18.5 percent of Arizona voters within that important voting bloc.
However, pre-election poll data may not be completely accurate.
Four years ago, there were signs that older voters were shifting to become more Democratic, but Trump would ultimately win them over.
Older citizens are the primary recipients of federal entitlements, including Social Security and Medicare, but Trump recently proposed a tax cut to end all taxes on Social Security retirement income.
‘SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAXES ON SOCIAL SECURITY!’ Trump wrote in Truth Social on July 31, appealing to the tens of millions who received monthly Social Security benefits ahead of the election.
But experts have criticized Trump’s plans from a cost and political perspective, warning that they could worsen the Social Security Administration’s funding crisis.
During an interview with CNN last week, Harris said she is “very proud” of the Biden administration’s work to “cap insulin costs for seniors to $35 a month,” adding, “Donald Trump said he a number of issues, including allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. Never happened. We did it’.
This was also evident from the NYT/Siena College poll Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race in the key states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
Polling data showed Harris with 48 percent support among likely voters in Michigan compared to Trump with 47 percent, while in Wisconsin Harris received 49 percent support to Trump’s 47 percent.
The margin for sampling error among likely voters is about plus or minus four percentage points for each poll.
The polls also showed Harris with a nine percentage point lead over Trump in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, whose lone electoral vote could be decisive in the Electoral College.