Here’s a simple fact about Donald Trump. There is never a knockout blow. Not even now that he has been found to have sexually assaulted E Jean Carroll and has to pay her more than $5 million in damages.
A finding that would destroy most political careers may not lead to a sudden change in Donald Trump’s political fortunes.
His staunchest backers will just believe him when he says it’s all made up. Those in the party who are less enthusiastic but see no hope of anyone else running will stick with him.
The fact that the rape allegation was not proven might help with the latter group. They will think this is a civil case – the burden of proof is lower than in a criminal case. And that the events were also many years ago.
With The Donald they held their collective noses before: they will almost certainly decide to do it again.
Here’s a simple fact about Donald Trump. There is never a knockout blow
Trump sexually assaulted E Jean Carroll and must pay her more than $5 million in damages
Justin Webb: “He’s dangerous when he’s attacked, when he’s cornered. He seems to like it, thrives on it’
Meanwhile, the man himself is already defiantly roaring: “THE VERDICT IS A SHAME,” was his predictable response in capital letters on his social media channel.
He is dangerous when attacked, when cornered. He seems to like it, thrive on it. As I write this, he’s scheduled a so-called “town hall” meeting — a live TV event — with CNN later tonight, and I expect him to show up and fight back.
But here’s his problem. Even though this court didn’t land a knockout blow, it did do some damage. Republicans want to win the next election against a president they see as useless and evasive. They turned back to Trump in recent weeks as he looked increasingly stronger. He gained momentum again.
This verdict halts that momentum. It raises a simple question in the Republican Party he so successfully hijacked.
Do we feel happy? Or, to put it another way, we think the broader electorate – floating voters in the few key states that will win the 2024 presidential election – will be put off by the steadily growing criminal record that Donald Trump brings
They’ll wonder if maybe it’s time to get out on bail. Not this minute. The primary campaign that the final candidate must win will not start until next year.
But when that campaign begins, this court finding could well come back to haunt Trump. People won’t ask if he’s a nice guy. They already know the answer. But they will ask if he is a winner.
And the suggestion that Trump is a loser with the broader American electorate is one that the Republican Party is already chasing.
Don’t forget that for all his bombast and staggering durability, he’s also participated in some pretty memorable defeats.
It was Donald Trump who lost the 2020 election. And while some of his die-hard supporters still think the result was rigged, many Republicans at the top of the party are well aware of what really happened.
Trump had already lost much ground to his party in the 2018 midterm elections. And in the most recent midterm elections, in 2022, the candidates he supported often faltered. He may have cost his party control of the Senate.
There is an anti-Trump story to be told within the party — if a Republican dares to tell it.
This is now the challenge for the other candidates. The greatest of them, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, will find himself under increasing pressure: hold out or shut up.
DeSantis has run amok in recent weeks. He has not formally stated that he is running against Trump.
When the former president was dragged to New York to face fraud charges, DeSantis tried to get it both ways, enjoying Trump’s embarrassment, but at the same time suggesting that the trial itself was a Democratic Party solution.
This tightrope walking must come to an end. It gets DeSantis and the other non-Trump candidates nowhere, making Trump look strong and them looking weak.
If he wants to become president, Ron DeSantis must make it clear to Republicans that Donald Trump is in the past. He’s going to have to come out and say Trump is a loser.
And when he and others do, it is quite possible that the floodgates will open and Trump will be politically wiped out.
Of course, Trump would not go quietly. That’s why DeSantis and others need a series of big sticks to beat him with. They will have to keep doing it and this will take some persistence.
But they now have enough sticks in their hands. And a very big ruling has just been made by this court ruling. Beating Donald Trump just got easier with finding sexual assault.
Donald Trump is still standing. And among Republicans desperate for a 2024 winner, there are more questions, more concerns — but also a rising hope that they can finally say goodbye to the maelstrom of the years when The Donald dominated their party.
Justin Webb is the former BBC North America Editor and presenter of the Today program on BBC Radio 4