JUSTIN WEBB: Get set for Biden v Trump, round two: It now seems almost impossible for anyone to catch Donald – even if he is imprisoned his supporters say they’ll stick with him

He was a loser. Now he’s winning again.

Donald Trump lost the 2020 election and did a lot of damage to his party in the 2022 midterm elections for Congress. He seemed to be on his way out. Many of those who supported him were willing to look elsewhere.

But then came the four sets of criminal charges. Many experts at the time wondered whether they would support him. The verdict came in Iowa on Monday evening: he is once again a victor.

Iowa is first in the nation: After all the pollsters and TV talking heads have endlessly had their say, this frozen state is offering the first time real people vote in the presidential election to choose who the candidates will be.

And here in Iowa, an American election unlike any other in modern times got even weirder. This is the first modern presidential contest with two former presidents who may be eligible, as well as the oldest candidates in history. And now this: The famed Iowa caucus has become the coldest in Iowa history.

And when I say ‘cold’ – the wind chill was -40C. Going from a building to your car actually hurts. Your face freezes. Your lips too. The road from Chicago to Des Moines, the route I had to take because all the flights had been canceled, was littered with those huge American trucks you see in the movies, spinning at crazy angles. The journey was supposed to take five hours, but it took me a day. The signs along the road simply say: ‘Travel is not recommended’. In other words, you are on your own. If you crash, you will quickly die from the cold in the snow. Very American. Very refreshing.

So the big question on Caucus night was whether significant numbers would stay home. The effort would be too much. You see, they have to do more than just vote and rush back to the car and home. A caucus is not an election – your final choice is secret, but the process includes speeches and participation. That’s the whole point.

And the bigger question was this: could we tell from the outcome whose supporters were more enthusiastic and more willing to risk freezing? Donald Trump told his people, “You can’t sit at home. Even when you’re as sick as a dog, you say, “Honey, I’ve got to make it.” Even if you vote and then die, it’s worth it!’

Was he joking? Sometimes it’s hard to tell with Donald Trump. But now we can say with certainty that the supporters seem to have taken him seriously and done what he suggested.

And with their enthusiasm they made a clear judgment. Not only is Trump the favorite to win the Republican nomination for November’s presidential election, but it’s now difficult for anyone to catch him.

Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s UN ambassador, had to come in second place and claim the mantle of Trump’s main challenger. She failed.

Ron DeSantis came in second, but now faces a race in New Hampshire in which he will almost certainly be defeated

Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s UN ambassador, had to come in second place and claim the mantle of Trump’s main challenger. She failed. She will continue, but with little clear purpose. Ron DeSantis came in second, but now faces a contest in New Hampshire in which he will almost certainly be defeated because the state’s more suburban and independent primaries don’t like him and show no signs of supporting him.

It’s frustrating for Haley. The polls suggest she would beat Joe Biden quite easily in the general election — but becoming a candidate now seems like a tall order, despite her best efforts in the snowy Midwest.

And Trump is steaming ahead. The polls show that his supporters remain loyal to him, despite – or even because of – all the legal problems he is in. They believe he is being treated unfairly and want him to stand behind him.

Even if he were convicted — perhaps even jailed — before the November election, pollsters say they will stick with him. Of course, it is not likely that the wider nation will feel this way. His chances of winning the final contest against Biden could be significantly reduced. But the Republican Party appears to have made up its mind. Biden v Trump, round two: two men in later years willing to take up the fight, even if that fight depresses their electorate. Even if it hurts America.

Justin Webb is the former BBC North America editor