Joe Biden is on course to narrowly win the US presidential election, a shock poll shows.
The US president is marginally ahead of Donald Trump, both in the electoral college and in the popular vote – but the campaign is ‘on the razor’s edge’, the survey shows.
Polls show Biden will win 287 electoral college votes, compared to his predecessor’s 251, when the country votes later this year.
Stack Data Strategy’s research, shared with the Mail, shows Biden is on course to win – despite Trump being the bookmakers’ favourite.
It uses an MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) model which has been a more reliable predictor of election results in recent years.
Joe Biden is on course to narrowly win the US presidential election, a shock poll shows
The US president is marginally ahead of Donald Trump (pictured) in both the electoral college and the popular vote – but the campaign is ‘on the razor’s edge’, survey shows
Polls show Biden will win 287 electoral college votes, compared to his predecessor’s 251, when the country votes later this year.
Biden announced his re-election bid earlier this year and has attracted enough support to secure the Democratic Party nomination. Trump will become the Republican nominee once the nominations are made official.
In the presidential election on November 5, the two men will compete for the electoral college votes, which are allocated to each state based on its population. They need 270 votes to win.
The election is likely to come down to a series of key battleground states. The polls show that Biden’s lead in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is less than half a point. If Trump were to just flip Pennsylvania, he would win the election.
Trump’s path to victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 ran through the Midwest, with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as key states.
Biden flipped many of these states in 2020, narrowly picking up Arizona and Georgia. As things stand now, only Georgia will be reversed by Trump.
Joe Bedell, head of Stack Data Strategy, said: “The 2024 election cycle is truly on a razor’s edge.
“According to our in-depth research, President Biden is currently on track to remain in the White House. But this is only within the narrowest of margins: in some states as little as a percentage point.
US President Joe Biden speaks at the North American Building Trades Unions 2024 Legislative Conference in Washington on April 24
Union members wear Biden-Harris campaign T-shirts and wave signs before U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at the North American Building Trades Unions 2024 Legislative Conference
“The Midwestern states that carried Donald Trump to victory in 2016 are sticking with Biden for now, but it’s essentially a toss-up in many of these key battlegrounds – there’s everything to play for and every vote will count.
“The race for Congress is just as tight as Republicans are currently on track to win back the Senate and maintain control of the House of Representatives. This will really be a blood-curdling match.’
A Stack Data Strategy poll last November predicted that Trump would win the Electoral College, despite Biden winning the popular vote. Biden is now narrowly ahead on both counts.
The data shows that Biden has since made consistent gains among multiple demographic groups, especially older, white, rural, suburban and less educated groups.
He continues to struggle with 18 to 24 year olds, currently winning just 53 percent of their age group, despite winning 65 percent of this group in 2020, based on exit polls.
Biden is also making no progress among Democratic base groups such as African Americans, Hispanics and Asians, the survey shows.
Immigration, inflation and crime are the three most important issues for voters, with 44 percent citing immigration and border security as among the most important areas to them. Inflation and rising fuel prices followed closely behind at 42 percent. Crime and public safety were slightly higher at 30 percent than abortion at 29 percent.
The survey also asked respondents who they would like to see as vice president for both candidates, with Trump voters naming Ron DeSantis, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley. Biden voters chose Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama and Mrs. Clinton.
This study also shows that Republicans are on track to win both the Senate and the House of Representatives by narrow margins.
Stack Data Strategy interviewed 7,793 U.S. registered voters online between March 27 and April 10.