A study shows that half of America’s 25,000 cities could become ghost towns by 2100.
Researchers at the University of Chicago found that in a modest scenario, about half of cities could lose a quarter of their residents by the end of the century.
If fertility rates continue to decline and the exodus from cities worsens, as many as two-thirds of cities could see their populations shrink significantly.
The team warned: ‘The implications of this massive population decline will bring unprecedented challenges, potentially leading to disruptions to basic services such as transit, clean water, electricity and internet access’ as cities shrink and populations age.’
America as a whole has seen its fertility rate decline in recent years, but not only are fewer babies being born, but also the progressive policies, crime and high costs of living that come with bustling metropolises.
This trend accelerated during Covid, when working from home became common and Americans were able to move to more rural areas.
Researchers predicted population trends between 2020 and 2100 based on population data from the past twenty years. Under this severe scenario, approximately 64 percent of cities are predicted to lose population by 2100
The exodus will be felt more in the Northeast and Midwest than in the Southern and Western regions, with Hawaii and the District of Columbia experiencing no loss of people at all.
The population has been rising since the 17th century – before the ‘United States’ even existed. But US Census data suggests the country as a whole will experience a population decline by 2080, which is in line with the new study’s findings.
For the latest study, the researchers used existing trends from the past twenty years to predict what the next eighty years will look like.
The team looked at the change in city population from 2000 to 2010, 2010 to 2020 and 2000 to 2010, and also took into account each city’s average annual population change from 2000 to 2020.
They categorized cities with an annual decline of five percent or more as severely depopulating, from one percent as moderately depopulating, and from 0 to 1 percent as slowly depopulating.
Their models showed that in the most likely scenario, half of the 24,295 cities will have a population of about 12 to 23 percent by the end of the century, the team found.
But the more extreme estimate predicts the number will reach 64 percent.
In this ‘intermediate scenario’, more than 50 percent of cities are predicted to lose population by 2100
In the future, depopulation rates in the northeast and midwest of the country will be higher than in the south and west, the study data shows.
More than 80 percent of rural towns in the northeastern region could lose population by 2100, according to an interim estimate.
And about 77 percent of the region’s urban cities, however, would grow.
The interim estimate also predicted that most rural cities in the South will lose population, while all urban cities will gain population.
It can be difficult to predict how population growth trends will be changed by the consequences of an uncertain future: changing labor markets, sea level rise, climate change, immigration, new laws and all the other factors that could cause people to move to or away from a certain city.
Current trends in population change show that about 40 percent of U.S. cities grew between 2000 and 2020, but 43 percent shrank.
More than 80 percent of rural towns in the northeastern region could lose population by 2100, according to an interim estimate. However, about 77 percent of the region’s urban cities would grow
In the coming decades, there will be cities or states in a region that don’t follow the regional trend, the researchers wrote: For example, the south coast of California may experience population losses, but the north coast may gain population growth.
And while Texas and Utah are currently growing, many cities in each of these states will experience significant population loss by the end of the century, the researchers concluded.
Historically, much of the depopulation trend has hit rural areas as young people moved to the cities, leaving behind an aging population – people who weren’t having babies.
And the new study supported this trend.
The interim estimate predicted that most rural cities in the South will lose population, while all urban cities will gain population
When we look at population density – the number of people living in a given area – cities experiencing severe depopulation tend to have low population densities.
Researchers also looked at how incomes align with population trends.
They found that cities in the Northeast and Midwest with lower median household incomes were more likely to depopulate over time.
“Such trends could exacerbate the socio-economic problems faced by lower-income households in these regions,” they wrote, “as population decline could lead to problems with the affordability of infrastructure services, such as water and electricity, due to a declining tax base, and operations. management and maintenance (OMM) challenges.’
Interim forecasts for Midwestern cities show a more dispersed trend than for other regions, with nearly the same percentage of urban and rural cities experiencing population growth and loss, respectively.
According to the interim estimate, the western region of the US will experience the lowest rate of population loss in rural towns compared to the other three regions in the study.
In contrast, high-income cities in all regions are likely to experience population growth.
And for some rural, lower-middle-income towns, populations are likely to grow.
Only time will tell how large regions and specific cities will be affected by population increases over time.
Stagnant cities can generally support their populations, but as cities shrink, the ability of city services to support the population may not keep up with local demand.
This in turn could accelerate depopulation as people move away from cities that become unliveable.