TThe trailer for Netflix’s latest multimillion-dollar project begins with a dramatic drumbeat, the slap of the glove on the pillow and a familiar Brooklyn accent. “He’s a manufactured killer,” Mike Tyson says with an almost cartoonish feel. “I am a born killer.”
The camera then cuts to the man he will face in the early hours of Saturday UK time, the influencer Jake Paul. “We’re going to war,” predicts Paul, who made his fortune filming jokes such as “I sank my friend’s car and surprised him with a new one,” before making an even more lucrative move into boxing. “And he gets knocked out.”
Forget the fact that Tyson is 58 and hasn’t fought professionally since retiring on his stool against Kevin McBride almost two decades ago. Or that 27-year-old Paul is a relative novice, who lost to the Love Island star Tommy Fury last year. More than 60,000 fans are expected to flock to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas to watch the fight in person, and millions more will stream it online.
But as the two men prepare to complete eight two-minute rounds in return, rumors suggest the questions for more than $20 million (£15.5 million) each remain up in the Texas air. Is this just a creepy pantomime? Or should it be seen as a harbinger of what lies ahead? And, even more intriguing, why is Netflix throwing millions at this meeting of the old world of boxing with its new YouTube iteration? Especially when almost everyone in the sport thinks it’s a terrible idea.
Barry McGuigan, who was at his best forty years ago, sums up the discomfort of boxing particularly eloquently. “I’m 63 and Tyson is only five years behind me,” he says Observer. “So the idea that he would box any man, even if he’s just an ordinary man, is just so wrong at that age. You are your reputation. That’s what people remember. And I remember Mike Tyson as a wrecking machine.
“He was truly one of the most dangerous heavyweights to ever wear gloves. There’s no doubt about that. And I don’t want people in 20 years to say, ‘Oh, that’s the guy who had that fake fight with that YouTuber.'”
McGuigan is generous towards Paul, saying he can “obviously do a bit of boxing”. But that makes the risks even greater for him. “A 58-year-old man should not be fighting,” he adds. ‘He just shouldn’t do that. At that age your impact resistance invariably disappears. And even though we see all these clips of Tyson doing the pads, that’s not real. What is real is sparring against good opposition and seeing how you come out. You can bet he doesn’t, considering his age.
A very different perspective is offered by Adam Kelly, president of media at global sports marketing agency IMG. Kelly accepts there are doubters, but predicts Tyson v Paul “has the potential to break some of the all-time ratings highs and become one of the most watched boxing matches of all time”.
Those are powerful words, and they carry even more weight considering Kelly was part of the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor promotion in 2017, a pay-per-view hit that paved the way for other crossover matches. In his current role he also regularly speaks to major sports, organizations and broadcasters such as Netflix about what sports could look like in the future.
For Kelly, this fight is part of the next iteration of how we will watch sports. The first came through commercial TV and advertising. The second of pay TV. This third wave is made possible by Netflix, Amazon, Apple and Google with YouTube.
“Sports is an important part of the attention economy, and these guys are the most effective at turning attention into revenue,” he says. “So what they can do better than the existing players is monetize the audience every time they watch.”
Tyson vs. Paul is essentially the opening salvo for Netflix before airing live NFL Christmas Day matches, World Wrestling Entertainment events next year, and possible live sports in the future. So how can companies like Netflix and Amazon compete with Sky’s monthly fees or high pay-per-view rates? “I think one of the challenges facing the sport is leveraging direct fan revenue, to use an MMA phrase,” says Kelly. “But in the attention economy, of which sports is an important part, there are many more ways in which engagement and audience can be turned into revenue for companies.
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“For example, can Amazon convert the attention to sports into additional shopping opportunities and spend even more money on online shopping? And can Netflix expand and improve their advertising platform, which is already significant and growing?”
As Kelly notes, Netflix is approaching 300 million households with its total subscriber base, and is also heading north of 50 million at the ad-funded lower cost level. “And based on their revenue, they believe these numbers have significant growth potential, and will ultimately deliver a different model than simply charging more money to sports fans, while also generating more revenue and more revenue in the game,” he says.
“The same goes for the other major technology companies. And when you put these elements together, you can start to see something that is not an anomaly. It’s more of an emerging trend.”
“I think we’ll look back on this and think, ‘Well, this is the moment Netflix caught fire when it comes to sports,’” he adds. “They are really busy with it. And I think it will be one of the biggest fights ever broadcast.”
Many in boxing remain skeptical. The promoter Eddie Hearn has criticized the fight, calling it “dangerous, irresponsible and disrespectful to boxing”, and ticket sales are said to be slow. While McGuigan also fears the worst when the fight begins. “I hope it’s neat, and it’s not a bunch of choreographed nonsense,” he says. ‘And I hope it’s real. But if twenty-something Tyson punched Jake Paul, he would have hospitalized him for a week. Not now, because he’s an old man.’
But as Kelly points out, the critics were also present before Mayweather fought McGregor. “Boxing fans will tell you McGregor was a terrible boxer, but I was there in Vegas, and it was exciting, and people were joining the fight in every way possible,” he says. “I think this will be similar.
“With that fight we were able to bring together these two superstars from very different audiences. It was the biggest global pay-per-view boxing event of all time [behind only Mayeather v Manny Pacquiao] and it started a trend where you saw the mavericks, the influencers – like Logan Paul, Jake Paul, KSI and others – starting to realize that a lot of people will pay to experience a different kind of event.
Make no mistake, things won’t be any different when Tyson returns to the ring. Some will tune in hoping to see the former heavyweight champion score one last hair-raising knockout. Others because Netflix’s algorithm lured them in, or simply because they’re curious about what will happen next. As one commenter on the official trailer on YouTube put it: “Is this stupid? Yes. Should I watch? Yes.” The reaction that followed suggested that many others felt the same way.