Israel’s limited attack on Iran is a ‘de-escalatory attack’ that allows both countries to take a step back and save face at the same time, experts say

The alleged Israeli attack on Iran this morning was so measured that it could be considered a ‘de-escalatory attack’, experts claim, as both sides can ill afford an all-out war.

The city of Isfahan in central Iran was hit at 5 a.m. local time, with Israeli drones reportedly targeting an air base long home to Iran’s fleet of American F-14 Tomcats – purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Isfahan is also a known hotbed for Iran’s nuclear research and is home to drone production factories – but the attack is said to have caused little material damage and no casualties have been reported.

Iranian officials tried to downplay any significant damage to their military facilities and flatly denied that any nuclear power plants had been destroyed Iranian state television this morning released images of an undisturbed Isfahan to cast doubt on reports that the city had been hit.

Dr. Andreas Krieg, an expert on Middle East security and senior lecturer at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies, told MailOnline that such a limited strike could be seen as an attempt by Tel Aviv to exit a major kinetic conflict. to climb.

“If this is the extent of Israel’s retaliation, it could be described as a de-escalatory attack. The use of small drones such as quadcopters provides a degree of plausible deniability that could help Iran downplay the effect of the attack.

“We could say that this attack is a return to the shadow war that has been going on for years, if that is the extent of it.

He added: “The Iranians should respond to an attack that is undeniable or involves Israeli fighter jets over Iran – but this attack does not cross the threshold. Neither side wants an all-out war.”

Iranian officials, meanwhile, told Reuters that Tehran has no plan for immediate retaliation against Israel, contradicting statements made by several senior politicians earlier this week.

“The foreign source of the incident has not been confirmed. We have not received any attack from outside, and the discussion is leaning more toward infiltration than an attack,” an Iranian official said on condition of anonymity.

In the days following Iran’s bombardment of Israel with missiles and drones last Saturday, Israeli ministers vowed to hit back, with Tel Aviv’s hawkish National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir declaring that his country must be prepared to “savage be’ on Tehran.

As such, the small-scale strikes were not well received by the far-right elements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet, with Ben-Gvir himself deriding this morning’s explosions in Iran as “weak.”

But analysts say Netanyahu, whose popularity in Israel has plummeted with dozens of hostages still trapped in Gaza after six months of war with Hamas, is in a difficult position.

Israel can ill-afford a major conflict with Iran, especially since the IDF is overstretched amid ongoing military operations against Hamas and periodic skirmishes with Hezbollah on its northern border with Lebanon.

But the international vitriol over the IDF’s brutal six-month bombardment of Gaza, which has so far caused the deaths of more than 33,000 Palestinians in just six months, disappeared after Iran’s attack last weekend, in which the US, Major -Britain and other allies reaffirmed their support for the Gaza Strip. Israel in the wake of Tehran’s aggression.

With this in mind, Dr. Krieg added that Netanyahu could wage a campaign of limited attacks on Iranian territory – or direct attacks on Iranian allies in the region.

“I think a protracted but manageable conflict is in Netanyahu’s interest. This can be achieved by expanding the conflict with the Iranian Resistance Axis. This is a low-risk conflict that keeps Israel on high alert without the risk of becoming existential.

“Israel could, over time, decide to engage in a series of scattered attacks that are individually so negligible that Iran does not have to respond.

“Israel could resort to Iran’s ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy, which is difficult to discourage.”

Similar sentiments were expressed by Justin Crump, British army veteran and CEO of global risk analysis firm Sibylline, who said earlier this week that a protracted conflict could benefit Netanyahu by reducing political pressure on Israel’s war in Gaza.

“The Permacrisis suits Netanyahu at this stage,” Crump told MailOnline.

“This situation has certainly helped Israel and its leadership by reversing the trend of pressure on Gaza and defusing some of the political tensions that were building up again.

“It is expected that Netanyahu will take advantage of this environment. The War Cabinet’s Israeli public stance will therefore remain combative, no matter what happens behind the scenes.”

No official comment has been released by Israel or the US following the explosions in Iran.

Iranian National Security Committee official Abolfazl Amoue stated earlier this week that Tehran is “prepared to use a weapon we have never used before” if Israel responds further.

And Iran’s foreign minister told CNN yesterday that Tehran’s response to an Israeli attack would be immediate.

“If the Israeli regime commits this grave mistake again, our response will be decisive, final and regrettable for them,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said.

But officials cited by Reuters this morning disputed these statements, saying Iran had planned no immediate response.

Images circulating on social media appear to show explosions over Iran, although MailOnline has been unable to confirm the images.

Shortly after reports of attacks emerged, three drones were “successfully shot down by the country’s air defenses,” Iranian National Cyberspace Center spokesman Hossein Dalirain said on X.

Israeli officials warned the Biden administration of its intention to strike before the launch in previous days, but one official told CNN that the US did not “green light” any Israeli response.

Hours earlier, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant on Thursday afternoon, but a key source declined to confirm this to the US government. New York Times or Gallant warned about the strikes after the meeting.

Israeli military sources reportedly emphasized that today’s attacks were a “limited response” to Iran’s attack, which appeared to target military nodes that Iran used in their attack on Saturday.

About four hours after reports of strikes, Iran lifted flight suspensions and opened its airports, while runways in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz were closed due to the Israeli attack.

Further explosions are said to have hit military targets in Iraq and Syria around the same time. Syria’s state news agency SANA quoted a military statement saying Israel had carried out a rocket attack on an air defense unit in the south, causing material damage.

TThe Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said the attack hit a military radar for government forces. It is not clear whether there were any casualties, the Observatory said.

Observatory head Rami Abdurrahman said six Israeli fighter jets entered Syrian airspace and were flying east when spotted by radar.