On April 5, shocking footage emerged from the occupied Al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem, showing Israeli security forces mercilessly beating Palestinian worshipers. The brutal violence left at least 12 Palestinians injured at Islam’s third-holiest site and sparked public anger.
Rockets were fired from Gaza and Lebanon as a warning of further escalation, but Israel did not listen. The next day it repeated the violent attack on al-Haram al-Sharif, where the Al-Aqsa Mosque stands, and carried out airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon.
It is now quite clear that US efforts to prevent another escalation in Palestine are failing. And again, it is not the Palestinian side that is responsible.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desperate attempt to stay in power is not conducive to the de-escalation that Washington desires and will undoubtedly accelerate processes that could ultimately lead to violence and instability far beyond occupied East Jerusalem.
American diplomacy fails
Tensions in the occupied Palestinian territories have been high for more than a year. Armed Palestinian resistance has been active, especially in Jenin and Nablus, while Israeli security forces have carried out relentless violent raids on Palestinian towns and villages.
The United Nations called 2022 the deadliest year for the occupied West Bank in the past 16 years, as the Israeli army killed at least 170 Palestinians, including 30 children, and injured at least 9,000. The first two months of this year were the most violent since 2000, with 65 Palestinians killed, including 13 children.
This year, the Muslim holy month of Ramadan coincides with the Jewish holiday of Passover. So it was clear that this time of year would be another potential focal point for violence. Hoping to avoid a major escalation that would divert attention from the war in Ukraine, two regional meetings were held under US auspices to negotiate measures to calm the situation.
On February 26, Palestinian, Israeli, Jordanian, Egyptian and US officials gathered in the Jordanian port city of Aqaba. The joint communique issued after the summit emphasized a commitment to “de-escalation on the ground … to prevent further violence” and an Israeli pledge to stop allowing new illegal settlements in Palestinian territories for six months.
On March 19, another meeting was held in Sharm el-Sheikh, where Palestinian and Israeli officials pledged to maintain the status quo of Jerusalem’s holy sites “both in words and in practice” and stressed the “need of both Israelis and actively prevent Palestinian actions that would disrupt the sanctity of these sites, including during the upcoming holy month of Ramadan.”
But Netanyahu’s government has not upheld the status quo in words or in practice. The Israeli Prime Minister is linked to far-right and ultra-religious forces that have openly stated that Israel’s recognition of Jordanian custody of the holy sites was a historic mistake that they must correct.
In fact, 2023 began with far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir entering al-Haram al-Sharif, sparking public anger across Palestine. Under his watch, raids by Israeli settlers on the Islamic holy site under the protection of Israeli security forces have only intensified.
Ben-Gvir and the other extremists in the government are Netanyahu’s only chance to stay in power and avoid jail time for corruption. They know this and are taking advantage of the situation to support by all means the violence that Jewish settlers have unleashed against the Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and to continue to erode the status quo in the holy sites with the aim of establish new facts about the ground – ie full Israeli control.
Netanyahu doesn’t necessarily mind. For him, the violence is a useful distraction from the anti-government protests that have plagued his sixth term in office.
‘A religious war’
It is quite clear that war is not in Israel’s interest. It is currently seized by the Palestinian resistance in the West Bank. It is concerned about Iran’s military presence and diplomatic successes in the region. It has regularly hit Syria to curb Iranian influence and is concerned about Hezbollah’s role in a recent roadside bomb explosion near the border with Lebanon.
Whether Netanyahu would listen to the Israel Security Institute is another question.
On the other hand, Hamas in Gaza has tried to respond moderately. It has warned Israel of further attacks on Al-Aqsa. It is reluctant to escalate as it could divert attention from Palestinian resistance in the West Bank, which Hamas sees as its main battlefield with Israel. Armed attacks in the occupied territories are of much more concern to the Israeli authorities than a confrontation with Gaza.
Hamas’ strategy now is to encourage a Palestinian popular mobilization in the West Bank, Jerusalem and Israel to serve as a barrier to further encroachment on the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
That said, Hamas may also come under pressure to act decisively, especially if Israel’s brutal violence against worshipers continues. The Palestinian people have already reacted angrily to the weak condemnations of the Palestinian Authority and its inaction.
Not wanting to be seen as passive, the Hamas leadership may feel compelled to heed popular demand to take a tougher stance and intensify rocket fire on Israel.
Thus, there may be a repeat of the war against Gaza in 2021, which was also triggered by Israel’s raids on the Al-Aqsa Mosque. But a further escalation is also on the horizon.
There have been repeated warnings that Israel’s actions at the holy sites could spark a “religious war”. In January, Jordanian Ambassador Mahmoud Daifallah Hmoud told the UN Security Council that Israeli attacks on al-Haram al-Sharif are “awakening the feelings of nearly two billion Muslims” and a “religious conflict”.
There is growing concern that the Netanyahu government’s aggressive actions in Al-Aqsa are trying to impose restrictions on Palestinians’ access to the holy site, as it has done with the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron. The latter was divided by Israeli authorities into sections for Muslims and Jews to visit to supposedly prevent further violence after a Jewish settler opened fire on Muslim worshippers, killing 29 in 1994.
Imposing these measures in the Al-Aqsa compound would be a clear violation of the status quo, according to which non-Muslims are only allowed to enter at certain hours and are not allowed to pray inside.
So far, condemnations have only been handed down by Arab states, the European Union and the US. What the Arab and Western capitals fail to understand is that unless there is a harsh response to Israel’s actions now, Netanyahu’s far-right allies will only be emboldened to go even further in their efforts to destroy Muslim (and Christian) holy sites. take and settle.
Their aggression in al-Haram al-Sharif turns it into a detonator that will sooner or later blow up the entire region.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial view of Al Jazeera.