If it feels like everyone around you is coming down with Covid again, there’s a good reason for that.
Experts estimate that around two million people are now becoming infected with Covid every day – the second highest figure since the pandemic began.
Because Americans are no longer testing routinely, the estimate was made using tests that look for bits of Covid in U.S. sewage.
But despite the near-record number of infections, deaths from the virus are at an all-time low for this time of year – thanks to the high level of immunity in the population.
It’s not just Covid that’s affecting Americans. Flu and RSV are also at unusually high levels, surveillance shows.
The above shows the amount of Covid in wastewater in the US according to Biobot
Above you see the Covid wave from 2023 to 2024 (light green) compared to the previous waves. The only wave that is higher is the wave from 2021 to 2022 (light blue) when Omicron first struck
Wastewater monitoring data from biotech company Biobot – which monitors sewage for the CDC – showed 1,398 instances of the virus per milliliter (ml) of sewage were detected nationally in the week to January 6, the latest available.
This marked an increase of 30 percent compared to two weeks ago and the highest level in two years – or since the Omicron wave in the 2021 to 2022 season.
The previous peak was 4,555 copies of the virus per ml, recorded at this time in 2022 – during the Omicron wave.
Biobot data is based on sewage from 400 locations in the US.
Dr. Lucky Tran, a scientist at Columbia University in New York City, said current data equates to 2 million people being infected with Covid every day.
This was based on data from Dr. Mike Hoerger, a cancer expert who researches Covid at Tulane University in Louisiana.
He says 1,374 copies of the virus per ml of wastewater equates to an estimated 2 million infections per day.
Experts say the rise in infections is due to the JN.1 variant, which is more contagious and may even be deadlier than earlier species.
That same study also found that the vaccine was still highly effective, which could explain the huge disparity between infections and death rates.
Dr. Tran said, “According to the latest CDC Covid wastewater data, we are currently in the second largest wave of the pandemic.
‘Next week it will peak, with two million infections per day.
“A total of 100 million people – or one in three people in the US – are likely to get Covid during this wave.”
Wastewater data was used early in the pandemic as an ‘early warning system’ for spikes in infections – and extra pressure on hospitals.
But the CDC has been conducting surveillance to track the shifts as fewer people test themselves for Covid. It can also pick up asymptomatic infections.
The CDC also noted the increase in wastewater, saying, “Infection levels measured using wastewater and test positivity, which capture both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, are higher than the year before.
‘The virus levels in wastewater in particular have increased rapidly in recent weeks.’
However, they noted: ‘In comparison, measures of Covid-related illnesses requiring medical attention, such as emergency room visits, have also increased, but to a lesser extent.’
This time last year, Covid infections were at 1,059 per milliliter – or around 30 per cent lower than today – and at this point in 2020 to 2021 levels were at 813 per milliliter – or 70 per cent lower than current levels.
Separate data from the CDC for the week ending January 4 showed that 33 of the 38 states where surveillance was conducted had “very high” levels of Covid in their wastewater.
This included the most populous states of California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois and Florida.
The other five states – Washington, Minnesota, North Carolina and South Carolina – had “high” Covid levels in their wastewater.
There are also concerns about the flu, with CDC data showing that thirty-eight states are now reporting “high” or “very high” levels of flu-like illnesses.
RSV levels are also still unusually high for this time of year.
In response to the surge, hospitals in at least 14 states have brought back face masks for patients, visitors and staff.
This is in an effort to limit the spread of respiratory viruses in their wards.
St. Louis City Hall, Missouri, also tried Friday to implement a face mask mandate for its 3,000 employees, saying the coverings must be worn indoors.
But the measure was reversed within hours, with the state moving to “strongly recommending” the coverings.
The above map, based on wastewater surveillance, shows how all states now have “high” or “very high” Covid levels in their wastewater according to surveillance
Rates of respiratory illness are normally high around this time of year, before infections peak in January and February.
But an earlier season, coupled with children’s underdeveloped immune systems due to successive lockdowns, has raised fears that the US could be in for a bigger wave.
Weekly Covid hospital admissions have also risen by around 20 per cent in a week to 34,000 admissions in the week to December 30, the latest available.
And deaths have risen by 12 per cent, with 1,600 cases recorded in the week to December 9 – the latest available.
So far this season, about 10 million people have been infected with the flu and 110,000 people have been hospitalized.
By comparison, at this point in 2019 – before the pandemic – there were 7 million flu illnesses and 55,000 hospitalizations.
Dr. Jacob Glanville, a virologist based in San Francisco who is working on a universal flu vaccine, told DailyMail.com that this was shaping up to be a “tough winter” for viruses.
“We normally see an increase in respiratory viruses after the holidays,” he said.
“So far, the CDC data shows that Covid-led hospitalizations are not at the same levels as the previous three winters. But a lot of uncertainty remains about how big the current peak could be.
“Everyone should make sure they wash their hands, cover up coughs and stay up to date on their vaccines.”