Iowa Republican Caucus 2024: Everything you need to know, from what is it to when we will hear the results

After more than a year of campaigning and ongoing debates, Republicans vying for the White House will finally face a test at the ballot box to see if they stand a chance against Donald Trump.

On Monday, thousands of Iowa voters will head to 1,657 counties in the frigid, snow-covered state to choose who they want as the Republican nominee for president.

At 7:00 PM Central Time (8:00 PM Eastern), they gather at churches, high schools, gyms and golf courses to write the name of their favorite candidate on a blank piece of paper, in a tradition dating back to 1972.

Iowa’s position at the start of the primaries gives the country, and its three million residents, an outsized but extremely important role in choosing the Republican candidate.

The winner will gain crucial momentum and up to 40 delegates to the convention as the candidates continue voting in larger states.

Former President Trump, 77, has a significant lead over the rest of the field in the polls, with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis battling for second place.

But the history of chaos, unrest and voting errors in the caucus means that several surprising outcomes are still possible.

Has Ron DeSantis’ dogged campaign done enough to get him into contention? Will Nikki Haley build on her momentum after Chris Christie dropped out?

Can Trump meet the sky-high expectations and secure the biggest victory since Bob Dole’s 12-point victory over Pat Buchanan in 1996?

DailyMail.com explains what to expect on Monday evening and when we can see the results:

When do the caucuses start and when will the winner be announced?

As with many recent US elections, there will be a dramatic wait for the results, which could take less than an hour or possibly even days.

The Iowa Republican caucus starts at 7:00 PM local time (8:00 PM ET). Participants must be at their chosen local precinct by then to listen to speeches before casting their votes.

Volunteers, or caucus captains, will enter the count into an online system, and the final counts will be posted on an Iowa Republican Party website.

Results from the smaller areas will be available in about 30 minutes, while the larger counts can take hours.

We could know the winner by Monday night, especially if Trump leads by an insurmountable margin.

It could be a very long night if there are issues or if it’s a close contest, and Iowa has a history of delayed (or wrong) results.

Ron DeSantis, wife Casey and their son Mason brave the snow to campaign in a snowy Urbandale, Iowa

Problems in Iowa in 2020, 2016 and 2012 that could lead to a long night

In 2020, Pete Buttigieg won the Democratic caucus, but issues dominated the vote.

There were widespread problems with the app used to count votes and inconsistencies in the data received from the precinct.

Buttigieg declared victory over Bernie Sanders that evening, but who won the nail-biting contest was always in doubt.

In 2016, the Democratic Party of Iowa declared Hillary Clinton victorious over Sanders at 2:30 a.m.

The Associated Press, the news outlet that usually declares the winner, did not confirm the outcome until the next day.

In 2012, the GOP called the wrong result.

The party declared Mitt Romney the winner that evening by eight votes, but two weeks later a recount showed that Rick Santorum had come out on top.

A failed result could have a significant impact on the race, as the declared winner will have momentum in the Iowa caucuses a week later.

What is a caucus and how is it different from a primary? A tradition that dates back to Jimmy Carter

It is believed that the word “caucus” comes from a Native American term, an Algonquin reference to a gathering of tribal leaders.

Instead of polling places, the Midwestern state has caucus locations, including school gyms, public libraries or a family kitchen.

People go to their local caucus location at a designated time in the evening and a representative from each candidate speaks to them.

They then cast their votes, and the results in each location or district are counted.

In the past, the small number of voters has led to relations being settled by a coin toss.

The system differs from a primary election where polling places are open all day and voters can vote by mail.

The local party runs the elections, while the state organizes the primaries. The vast majority of states hold primaries.

Will the harsh winter weather have an impact? Forecasters predict Monday will be the coldest caucus in history

Monday’s caucus will likely be the coldest in history. Temperatures will dip below freezing and wind chills will make it even colder.

Candidates have had to cancel events because of the snow, wreaking havoc on their final bids to Iowans.

Voters must be on site in person, so they will have to navigate the snow to arrive on time.

Iowa voters are accustomed to the conditions and take the responsibility of participating in the caucus seriously.

Experts predict that this will not have much impact on turnout. There are 757,200 registered Republicans in the state and the record turnout was 187,000 in 2016, when Ted Cruz defeated Trump.

Earlier this week, top Republican strategist Jimmy Centers (who is not aligned with either candidate) told DailyMail.com that a robust ground operation is critical, and Trump’s was the best among the contenders.

“DeSantis has built a very strong organization, with caucus location captains for every location in the state,” said Centers, former communications director for Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds.

“In any other year, that would be the gold standard for a caucus organization. Former President Trump’s team has the advantage of working in the state for eight years and building deep, meaningful relationships across the state.”

Giovanni Gonzalez clears his sidewalk in Sioux City, Iowa, during the snow on Friday

Can anyone beat Trump in Iowa? He has an average lead of 30 points in the polls

The polls suggest not, but Iowa has produced many shocking results.

An average of recent polls shows Trump at 51 percent, ahead of Ron DeSantis at 19 percent and Nikki Haley at 16 percent.

That has been the case for many weeks.

Observers in Iowa note that the electorate can rally behind a candidate at a very late stage.

The amount of time a candidate has spent in the state Assembly with voters should also not be underestimated, and Trump has attended less than his rivals.

DeSantis has completed the “full Grassley,” named after state Sen. Chuck Grassley, which means visiting all 99 counties.

Much also depends on how well a campaign gets its voters to caucus sites.

Many people have other obligations on a cold January night, or a lack of childcare.

However, Gentry Collins, a veteran Republican strategist who managed Mitt Romney’s 2008 caucus campaign, said: “To me for a long time it looked like there was a narrow alley, but there was an alley for a non-Trump candidate.

‘But there isn’t really one alternative that people can support.’

An average of recent polls shows Trump at 51 percent, ahead of Ron DeSantis at 19 percent and Nikki Haley at 16 percent. That has been the case for many weeks

What does the Iowa winner get? How does it help with the nomination process?

At stake are forty delegates that Iowa sends to the Republican National Convention, who in turn help nominate the party’s presidential candidate.

The 40 delegates are allocated proportionally, so that the winner does not get a big advantage.

In 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa with 27.6 percent and received eight delegates.

Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, who finished second and third, both received seven.

After the chaotic 1968 Democratic National Convention, the party decided to stagger the nominating process.

Iowa had a complex process and that is why it was the first to get started in 1972.

The Republican Party also put Iowa first in 1976 and has remained that way ever since, despite complaints from other states.

Critics argue that the Midwestern state is not representative of the rest of America and does not have enough people to justify its position at the start of the election calendar.

Why is Iowa so important? The so-called ‘Big Mo’ for the winner

The 40 delegates awarded by Iowa represent only 1.6 percent of the total number of delegates that will be sent by all states to the Republican National Convention to choose the presidential candidate.

However, Iowa is seen as a testing ground by candidates, donors and political strategists because it produces the first actual results of the process.

The winner gains momentum – what George HW Bush called the “Big Mo” after he won Iowa in 1980.

Undecided donors start giving money to the winner, while candidates who don’t do well in Iowa are pressured to drop out.

Nikki Haley was forced to cancel in-person events Friday due to snow, but she’s hoping for some recent momentum

Does Iowa predict the winner? The very mixed results of the caucus

Iowa’s reputation for predicting the eventual occupant of the White House stems from the surprise rise of Georgia’s little-known governor, Jimmy Carter, who unexpectedly won the 1976 caucuses.

The winner of Iowa was only elected president three times.

Especially recently, the track record has not been very successful.

Donald Trump lost Iowa to Ted Cruz in 2016, but ultimately reached the White House.

Neither Huckabee nor Santorum were able to secure the Republican nomination.