‘Iowa polling queen’ reveals why survey upending the election IS accurate as Trump rages
The Iowa pollster behind the massive survey that sent shockwaves through the presidential election Saturday night has defended results showing Kamala Harris leading in the conservative state.
Ann Selzer has built a reputation as “Iowa’s Polling Queen” and the “best pollster in politics” over decades of conducting the Des Moines Register polls.
But the credibility of “the Cassandra of Des Moines poll” was called into question over findings that the Vice President was ahead of Trump in the heavily Republican Hawkeye State.
The ex-president tore up the investigation, calling Selzer a “Trump hater” and insisting that Iowa farmers “love him.”
“All the polls, except one heavily skewed to the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it completely wrong last time, have me WAY positive,” he said scathingly of Truth Social.
Iowa has not voted for a Democrat in the presidential election since Barack Obama in 2012 and was written off by the Harris campaign as an easy victory for the Republican Party.
The Seltzer poll was immediately labeled an “outlier” and the Trump campaign pointed to an Emerson poll showing the Republican candidate comfortably in the lead.
She pushed back on the MSNBC criticism, saying she had evidence to support the surprising conclusion.
“We don’t have as much data as we would like about why this is happening,” she told The Weekend Show.
Ann Selzer has built a reputation as “Iowa’s Polling Queen” and the “best pollster in politics” over decades of conducting the Des Moines Register polls
“But our consensus among reporters who work this way is that the abortion ban went into effect last summer… I think it got people interested in voting.”
She said part of the reason Harris is leading is “her strength with women… it’s part of the boost that Kamala Harris has gotten this time around.”
Selzer went on to say that she has personally seen “fewer Trump signals” than in 2020.
And she admitted that “there is still some swing to be determined on election night,” as neither candidate polled above 50 percent.
The various surveys show that the gap between the two candidates could widen further in what is expected to be a historically close election on Tuesday evening.
Trump and Harris are essentially tied across the country, and the margins in the seven battlegrounds that will likely decide the race are razor-thin.
More than 70 million Americans voted early and millions more will cast their ballots on November 5.
Kamala Harris sees a last-minute surge in momentum against Donald Trump in the final days of one of the closest presidential elections in history
“But our consensus from the reporters who work this way is that the abortion ban went into effect last summer… I think it got people interested in voting,” Selzer said on MSNBC.
The various surveys show that the gap between the two candidates could widen further in what is expected to be a historically close election on Tuesday evening.
Trump and Harris are essentially tied across the country, and the margins in the seven battlegrounds that will likely decide the race are razor-thin.
More than 70 million Americans voted early and millions more will cast their ballots on November 5.
September polls in Iowa showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and the campaign has stressed that will not happen in the race.
In a memo on Saturday evening, aides pointed to the Emerson poll released on Saturday showing Trump leading by 10 points.
That “much more accurately reflects the state of the actual electorate in Iowa,” Trump’s campaign says.
The campaign also used the methodology used in the Des Moines Register poll, adding that Republicans are seeing a huge increase in early voters compared to 2020.
September polls in Iowa showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and the campaign has insisted that won’t happen in the race
It has highlighted every aspect of the survey, including the suggestion that Harris has a 20-point lead among women and 19 points among seniors.
The former president held an 18-point lead over President Biden in The Hawkeye State in June before dropping out of the race.
But the tables have since turned, the new research shows, presenting a potential but highly unlikely new path to victory for Harris and her campaign.
Harris’ three-point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error, and Trump is still the favorite to win the state by a comfortable margin.
Democrats had written off the state, while Harris focused instead on the seven crucial battlegrounds.
Surprisingly, the survey also found that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received three percent of the votes.
According to June polls, Kennedy had nine percent of the vote in the state.
Her advancement in the Midwest state comes amid a media blitz as she appears on radio shows, cable channels and soon on Saturday Night Live.
The surprising lead for Harris is supported by independent female voters, who are expected to break for the Democrat as men turn to Trump in droves.
Harris has a 28-point lead over these women over Trump. Independent men, on the other hand, are breaking for the Republicans.
While another poll in Iowa shows that the race is firmly in the hands of the Republicans.
Trump and Harris are essentially tied across the country, and the margins in the seven battlegrounds likely to decide the race are razor-thin
The vice president received a shock Saturday night when a poll showed her ahead in the heavily Republican state of Iowa and a DailyMail.com election forecast showed her making gains over the 78-year-old former president.
Both Trump and Harris were in North Carolina on Saturday, one of seven battlegrounds likely to determine the winner
An Emerson College poll showed the ex-president with a 53 percent lead and Harris with 43 percent.
Trump’s 10-point lead in that survey is safely within the three-point margin of error.
Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds dismissed the poll results Saturday evening by suggesting Republicans had an advantage in early voting.
“Iowa Republicans are leading the way in early voting for the first time in decades, increasing our voter registration advantage by more than 130,000,” Reynolds wrote on X.
“President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and our friends stand up. Let’s prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!’ she said.
Both Iowa surveys were released Saturday, just three days before Election Day.
The latest election forecast model from JL Partners, provided to DailyMail.com on Saturday, also predicts bad news for Trump.
The model is moving from ‘lean’ Trump into ‘toss up’ territory.
Trump remains the favorite and he wins in 62.2 percent of the simulations.
But that’s a drop of 2.5 points since Friday and he has now lost seven points in five days, reflecting a series of polls that favored Kamala Harris.
Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, looks at a video screen during a campaign rally at the Salem Civic Center, Saturday, November 2, 2024, in Salem, Virginia
According to Emerson, Trump has a ten-point lead in Iowa
All swing states have seen movement against Trump.
JL Partners data scientist Callum Hunter writes in his latest briefing note:
“It is now clear that the momentum of recent polls is in Harris’ favor. Trump’s odds of winning have fallen seven points in five days and if more polls are released showing similar patterns from recent days, the race will swing from LEAN Trump to TOSSUP before Election Day.”