The names keep pouring in for Inter Miami.
When Lionel Messi joined the club midway through the 2023 MLS season, Miami quickly added Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba – two of Messi’s teammates from his time at Barcelona. Just before the new year, Inter Miami added another former Barcelona player to their roster in the form of striker Luis Suárez.
The La Liga exiles are converging on South Florida, but they aren’t the only ones heading to Miami. Wide playmaker Julian Gressel, who has played a handful of games for the US men’s national team and is a two-time MLS Cup winner, is also on the way to Inter Miami. The club also appears to be looking for talent Boca juniors and other major clubs in South America.
Many are optimistic about Miami ahead of the new MLS season. Why shouldn’t Tata Martino’s team win the Leagues Cup in 2023? They will clearly be among the top teams in the league in 2024, with a double or even a triple within reach. But while a successful 2024, with more hardware than last year, is possible, it is also not guaranteed for Inter Miami.
It doesn’t matter if you’re Inter Miami or another club battling to dominate their region, you’re always forced to contend with a kind of push-and-pull as you try to build a super team: the world’s most valuable team . attacking players like to attack… so they rarely want to defend.
It’s no surprise that when Messi and friends moved to Florida, Miami struggled without the ball.
Now they weren’t bad defensively. Super teams – and Inter Miami is no exception here – will do just about anything to keep the ball and avoid having to sit deep in their own half. That way, their superstars have as many opportunities as possible to, well, are superstars. But even the best teams in the world relative to their competition do not have possession of the ball for almost 100% of every match.
So what happens if they lose it?
This is where the biggest teams in Europe have a big advantage over their competition that Miami doesn’t have over theirs. Teams like PSG and Real Madrid, teams that play with a bunch of very talented forwards, usually also have very talented defenders.
During his time at Barcelona and PSG, Messi played with a collection of the best defenders of all time. He, and the rest of Inter Miami’s upper-league forwards, don’t have that luxury in MLS. With league rules designed to promote competitive balance by limiting spending at most roster spots, Miami can only allocate so many resources to defensive positions while focusing on Messi, Suárez and others.
So Inter Miami’s roster contains a handful of players who are too good to defend. It also features many other lesser players in key positions who will be exposed to high-level opponents.
Looking back on last year, they were an underperforming defensive team during the latter part of the regular season with Messi and Co in the squad. According to American Soccer Analysis, Miami ranked 19th out of 29 teams in MLS in expected goals per game (1.43) and 16th in goals per game (1.42) over their last 12 games.
They will continue to have defensive issues in 2024. And they will have them on both sides.
Starting at the front – the great Johan Cruyff called his attacker his “first defender” – Inter Miami’s defensive shape was often broken late last year. Messi does not tend to make a quick push immediately after losing the ball. Adding Suárez, who will be 37 by the time the new season starts, to their frontline will not help strengthen their defensive work. Miami will play without a starting defenseman (or a second) for much of this year.
It’s easy to imagine big moments in 2024 as the opponents rush past the top of Inter Miami’s defensive shape, overload the remaining outfield players and break towards goal. It’s easy to imagine because it happened enough in 2023.
Here’s just one example from last year’s Leagues Cup, a competition between MLS and Liga MX teams, when Miami played Cruz Azul:
after newsletter promotion
Cruz Azul was able to move the ball seamlessly between Miami’s defensive line, while Inter’s forward partnership, including Messi, stood by and watched:
Miami’s current first-choice defense has shifted to the backline and consists entirely of players over 30 or under 20. Gressel and DeAndre Yedlin, both of whom will likely see time at right back, are 30. At left back is Jordi Alba is 34. At center back, the Ukrainian Serhiy Kryvtsov is 32, while Tomás Avilés is only 19. Throw in Busquets, a 35-year-old defensive midfielder, and you have a lot of mileage on those legs. Or, in Avilés’ case, not enough.
Inter Miami already knows that they will have to go without the ball in 2024. They accepted that the moment they signed Messi. However, the implicit bet the club is making this year is that there are defensive issues it just doesn’t matter. Their attack will be so good, the betting dictates, that they will score two goals for every goal they allow.
Somewhat curiously, Inter Miami’s offense wasn’t elite last year after the reinforcements arrived. They were 10th in goals per game (1.58) and 12th in xG per game (1.47) in the regular season after their roster overhaul, according to ASA. To be fair, half of those games were without Messi, although there wasn’t a big difference from our games without him in the line-up. A full preseason and an even stronger attacking group should turn a good attack into a great attack.
With a squad full of young, healthy elite players competing in mid-season without a Copá America-sized hole, it seems safe enough to bet on attack to make up for their own defensive vulnerabilities. But Inter Miami doesn’t have that roster, nor do they have the luxury of playing in a league that aligns with the international competition calendar.
During the Copá America, which runs from June 20 to July 14, Miami will probably last longer than one fifth of their regular season schedule if Argentina makes it to the finals. Inter Miami has seven games in or around those tournament dates. The Paris Olympics, with the men’s soccer tournament running from July 24 to August 10, could also see Miami lose several players in the Leagues Cup.
Between these two international tournaments, Inter Miami’s chances of winning the Supporters’ Shield as the best regular season team in MLS and their hopes of repeating their Leagues Cup title declined. They don’t drop close to zero. But they do fall.
Miami’s margin for error is smaller than many think, despite gathering top players in a region where it’s easy to stand out. It seems foolish to pick against them to win a trophy this year, especially with five up for grabs – if MLS teams are indeed playing in the US Open Cup. But collecting a few trophies to meet sky-high expectations? With obvious defensive weaknesses and problems with the availability of real players in the background, that is no easy task.
Even the biggest club in MLS isn’t immune to disappointment.