Indigenous vote to parliament: RedBridge poll shows Yes campaign almost ‘unsalvageable’ as Anthony Albanese warns referendum is last chance to recognize Aboriginal Australians

Hopes for a yes victory in the upcoming referendum on an indigenous vote in parliament have taken a huge dent in the latest opinion polls.

A new RedBridge poll found that the No campaign had a massive 56-44 lead over the Yes side, a 12-point lead that makes the Yes cause “almost untenable.”

The poll comes after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, speaking at the Garma festival on Saturday, refused to postpone or call off the referendum as opposition leader Peter Dutton continues to support the No campaign.

Education level, income, age and religion also appear to be important factors in why people support the No camp – with only the very wealthy supporting Yes.

The pro-Voice side now follows the no side in every state and territory — to pass, four of the six states would have to vote yes and win the overall national vote.

The poll is a key indicator that people’s opinions are hardening, as it is the first poll since the launch of campaign information brochures by both sides in July.

The drive to change the constitution has also exposed income and education disparities – the more educated or affluent a person is, the more likely they are to support yes.

Two-thirds of those with Year 12 and TAFE education plan to vote no, while 56 percent of degree holders support yes, the poll, conducted for News Corpfound it.

Similarly, two-thirds of people with an annual household income of less than $50,000 a year also plan to vote no.

The Voice is even more unpopular with Protestants and voters over the age of 65 — about 75 percent in each category plan to be No.

As for wealth, only households with annual incomes over $200,000 a year return Yes over No, and even then it’s a bald pass, by a margin of 51 to 49.

Other groups that support The Voice are the 18-34 year olds (63 percent in favor) and those who speak a language other than English at home (59 percent in favor of Yes).

Not everyone has read the information from the yes and no parties yet, but for those who have the no vote it is even higher, at 59 to 41.

After learning about the pros and cons, 25 percent of people who said they were more likely to vote yes switched to no.

Even in Victoria, which was seen as an easy victory for the Yes side, the No side is leading 55-45. In NSW No leads 56-44 and in Queensland the lead is 63-37.

RedBridge executive Tony Barry said the investigation found the Yes campaign “almost beyond saving.”

“(They) based their strategy on the assumption that the republic referendum failed because people didn’t like the details, and so the solution for this referendum was not to provide details,” he said.

“In our research, we find that in the absence of any detail, including why the vote is essential to delivering tangible benefits to Indigenous Australians, opponents are now assigning real or perceived risks to the proposal, further undermining public support.”

Mr Barry said it was a case of ‘all risk with no commonly understood benefit’ for many.

His colleague Kosmos Samaras, a former Victorian Labor official, said Albanian must cancel the referendum before it is rejected.

“The referendum on the indigenous vote is the right idea, but the wrong time in the political cycle.”

The most popular reason people gave for voting yes (17 percent) was that the proposal came directly from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

The most popular reason for voting no was that it would divide the country (22 percent).

Other popular reasons for voting no included 16 percent saying there was a lack of detail and another 16 percent saying it wouldn’t help Indigenous people.